The geopolitical world is in a turmoil in the middle
of the pandemic that has entered its eighth month and has left humanity on
earth clueless about any solution to end it. Its raining events, leaving
analysts with a backlog of work. The crisis in Syria and the US Iran row are still
a work in progress. To those add the events in the South China Sea, then the
Chinese transgression of the Indian border. Potentially these events can spark
hostilities among the various players involved.
However the accord between the Arabs and Israel can be said to be a
positive development in the complex politics of the Middle East. Never the most
stable of regions, the Middle East sometimes has bordered on being a tinder
box. Notwithstanding the opposition of Iran and Turkey the accord could turn
out to be a harbinger of peace.
This accord was many years in the making. As early
as 2010 the UAE decided to align itself with the policies of the US in the gulf,
though this also meant throwing the Palestinians under the bus. In 2010 Israeli
Mossad agents killed a Palestinian leader in Abu Dhabi. The agents were not pursued by UAE. After
the oil prices fell as a result of reduction in US off take from the gulf
region in 2014-15, the rulers of the oil-rich countries realized that the days
of subsidizing their economies with petro-dollars was over. After the Arab
spring movement the writing was on the wall for family ruled Sheikhdoms. Rulers
in Egypt, Libya and Syria succumbed to this revolution.
The prominent ruling families in the gulf region
realized that in the future, with oil no more a bargaining commodity, other
resources would be a key for economic development which will guarantee
political stability. Iran and Turkey were destabilizing the elements which
needed to be countered. Iran being Shia is opposed to Saudi Arabia and the UAE
which are Sunni. Turkey under Erdogan has made no secret of its ambition of establishing
a Caliphate to dominate the Arabs harking back to the Ottoman Empire.
Surprisingly, in this situation, Israel suddenly
becomes a stabilizing factor. Israel can help the Arabs (south of the strait of
Hormuz) in their endeavor to develop rapidly. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have
always coordinated their policies. In 2019 Saudi Arabia gave over-flight permission
to international airlines (incidentally, Air India was the first) for their
flights to Israel. That was an indicator that a thaw was imminent in the Arab
Israeli relations.
The countries opposed to the treaty are not
unanimous in their stand. Like Iran and Turkey Pakistan did not reject the
treaty outright as it finds itself in a quandary. It regards Israel as its
traditional enemy, not just on religious grounds but also because of Israeli
occupation of Palestine. But the deal is brokered by the US which Pakistan
cannot afford to antagonize. Also, Saudi Arabia is the largest donor to the
cash strapped Pakistani economy. This makes its position unenviable. The accord
will see Israel stop making any additional claims on Gaza and the west bank in
return for full recognition by the UAE. Pakistan could latch on to this if it
decides on normalizing its relations with Israel. Iran and Turkey are the only important countries
in the region which could potentially cause trouble. But how far would they go
to disrupt this historic treaty is a matter of conjecture. The other interested
party, China, has not opened its cards as yet. Its response will depend on how
this accord affects its trade deal with Iran and the CPEC project in Pakistan.
This accord will be quickly scaled up and deepened as there are a multitude of areas which both the signatories can collaborate on. Other countries in the region will jump on this bandwagon as the economic implications are realized. Exchange of visits by the leaders are already being planned and opening of missions will follow.
There is a Sunni Shia taint to this accord which is unmistakable. Looking at the political fissures, the OIC’s future looks bleak too. Israelis settled on the west bank are not happy at this decision of their government. Also, Israel may object to sale of high tech weapons by the US to the UAE. All these factors cast some doubts on the success of the accord. Be that as it may, there is no denying that middle east politics is on an important cusp of change.
