Dictatorships are Dysfunctional

Consider this to be a sequel to my earlier article titled ‘Dictatorships are Bad’. The current scenario unfolding in China is proof if any was needed.  It is a prime example of how a well running economy can be ruined by dictatorial whims and fancies.

Chinese leadership had the impertinence to celebrate victory over covid as early as 2021 when the rest of the world was under lockdowns. Dictatorships are often seen to celebrate victories prematurely. This time around it has backfired viciously.

The irresponsible behavior by the CCP and the top Chinese leadership is now threatening to plunge the world into another pandemic, with new virus variants. When the original virus was detected in Wuhan, in China, the whistle blowers were silenced immediately by the CCP. The world does not yet know how humans came into contact with this virus which was found in bats.

The current wave sweeping China is even worse in that, there is no reliable data coming out which puts a figure on the infections. Nobody knows if there are any genome sequencing labs working in China which are giving out reliable data about the mutations the virus is undergoing.

While the economic consequences of this latest disaster are still sometime away, the countries around the world are now gearing up for new waves of the pandemic. The purely dictatorial behaviour was evident when the virus came out of Wuhan. The CCP did not allow any news of these infections to be disseminated to the world. The classical dictatorial logic is that a powerful government led by a cult personality like Xi Jinping cannot make mistakes.  So, news about the virus was quashed at the peril of causing a disease which later killed millions and brought the world’s economy to its knees.

The mistake is being repeated by the dictator. Xi was forced to relax his draconian zero covid policy due to protests by the people who saw a complete collapse of the economy. When people came out on the streets demanding Xi to step down, alarm bells started ringing in Beijing. The zero covid policy was relaxed in a knee jerk reaction. However, the policy had kept the virus from spreading among the population.

China’s vaccines were never effective despite getting WHO approval almost immediately. The Chinese people as a result, have no immunity, either natural, through infection, or through the vaccine. Thus, now the pigeons have come home to roost. The virus is back in China with a vengeance.

Things have gone south for China and the world since Xi Jinping came to power. The leaders like Deng Xiaoping and Hu Jintao were patient leaders. They believed in not overplaying their hand, prematurely. Xi inherited a fast-growing economy from his predecessor and changed the script altogether. He assumed China had arrived on the world stage and began an aggressive diplomatic campaign with China’s neighbours to claim their territories. China under Xi also claimed the entire South China Sea which is actually disputed.

Xi also initiated the Belt and Road project to increase connectivity and trade with the world.

China gave many loans to countries under this scheme which were at best economically unviable. The result is that the countries are now saddled with huge debts. Case in point, the Humbantota port in Sri Lanka.

Today one man in China controls everything. For such a huge and diverse country like China, a single dictator taking all the decisions is nothing short of a disaster. Xi has purged the political opposition within the CCP to, such an extent under the garb of corruption, that there are now only yes men left in his administration who report to him. It seems Xi does not get correct information on which to base his judgments, for whatever they are worth. The result is that administrative decisions have gone haywire in China. The zero covid policy has resulted in causing stress in almost all sectors in China. Real Estate, Railways, Manufacturing being the prominent ones.

China’s one child policy which was instituted to control the population in the 1970s has proven to be very effective, so much so that, the country’s workforce will reduce by more than 60 percent in the next decade.

It is now amply clear that democracies with all their inherent faults, function more efficiently than any dictatorship led by a single person or party.

Xi’s decision not to import more effective vaccines from other countries reeks of personal ego. His autocratic rule and the mismanagement of the covid situation has sparked protests throughout the country. People are demanding an end to one party rule and Xi’s dictatorship.

It could be said that Xi Jinping has come to power in China to preside over its downfall. By this logic, the sooner he goes the better for China and its people.

Political Evolution

 

The turmoil in China, the protests in Iran, the relatively speedy reforms that MBS (Mohammed Bin Salman) undertook in Saudi Arabia have something in common. There is an underlying current which points to freedom and democracy.

People living under single party dictatorships, or a dictator, or a Sultan of a royal family are revolting against their rulers.  Iran was a relatively free country when the Shah of Iran ruled in the 1950s. Then came the clerics who overthrew the liberal Shah and unleashed a brutal rule which followed the Shia dictates.

Many Arab countries were Sheikhdoms in the last century.  When the Europeans came, trading relations grew and these kingdoms acquired some semblance of political legitimacy as they provided protection to the traders and businesses, both domestic and foreign. The discovery of oil was a boon to the rulers, and increased their political power.

Iran is also witnessing unprecedented protests. Women in Iran are demanding freedom from religious oppression. The protests have spread and is now threatening the regime of the religious clerics.

The CCP power in China has been challenged. The Tiananmen Square massacre was an indication that all was not well with the communist party rule. China opened up its economy and grew rapidly in the last three decades. The current generation of Chinese people do not know what it is to be without a job, or even economic hardship. This economic affluence kept political pressure for freedom at bay. The people were getting what they were promised. But what goes up, generally comes down. The Chinese economy began to contract just before the covid pandemic set in.

Today the Chinese growth story is all but over. This has created huge problems for the CCP. They can no longer guarantee livelihoods to the Chinese people. Also, draconian anti-covid measures enforced for the last three years have tried the patience of the Chinese people. The Zero covid policy has brought down the Chinese economy due to frequent lockdowns.

There may be many reasons for the current spate of freedom movements across the globe. One can say that this is an evolutionary step taken by nature. We always talk of evolution being an improvement. The evolutionary process on which the human race has embarked, is now in the midst of a sociological evolutionary step. Freedom is being demanded from autocratic political systems in various parts of the world.

This movement is far bigger than anything that can be crushed by force of the military and guns. What we are witnessing is the process of evolution. This is not biological evolution, it is political / sociological. Just as humans evolve biologically, their social systems also need to evolve. This is precisely what we are witnessing.  The fact that many parts of the world are witnessing similar movements gives credence to the theory that as humans are evolving so are their social systems.

China Turmoil - Writing on the Wall for the CCP?

 

The turmoil in China has made headlines in all papers the world over. China today is the most controlled society in the world today. There is at least one camera for every seven citizens in public places which AI enabled. The CCP controls everything. There is no leeway for individual enterprise, not even in business as is sometimes wrongly assumed. This current unrest is for human dignity.  

The corona virus originated in Wuhan and till to date China has not shared any information as to its origins. After the pandemic set in, the world then produced vaccines and two years later most of the countries have removed strict covid restrictions, save for cautioning their people. However, Chinese vaccines proved to be ineffective against some of the strains of the corona virus. Thus, China even two years later has had to impose strict lockdowns on its people when most of the world is learning to live with it. Experts say the Chinese government fears the virus may cause a lot of fatalities as the vaccines have not worked.

The CCP is between a rock and a hard place on this. The Chinese vaccines have been quite ineffective. Only strict lockdowns have prevented the virus from spreading. If the authorities relent and lift the restrictions, the current protests become potential super spreader events. If the virus spreads, the Chinese authorities could have several waves of infections on their hands.  

The people however are now beginning to get restless as the lockdowns have affected their livelihoods. The Chinese economy has slowed down considerably since the lockdowns began about three years ago. People have lost jobs and businesses have suffered huge losses.

Experts on China say that the slowdown in the economy is one of the reasons why the people are kept in a lock down. Jobs have evaporated as Chinese economy slowed after three decades of steady growth. If the people come out of the lockdowns and go back to work, many are going to find they have no jobs. This is what the CCP fears the most. Political unrest. They tried to prevent it, but now it is staring them in the face.

People have been demanding a relaxation of the covid curbs, but there also have been demands for freedom and the resignation of the leader Xi Jinping.

Some Chinese people watched the football world cup in Qatar and observed that there were no masks in the stadiums. This prompted many to openly criticize the CCP on its zero-covid policy. People are out on the streets in at least nine cities. Many universities have also reported stirs by students, which shows the protests are more widespread.

A fire in a building in Urumqi in Xinjiang was the trigger for these protests. There, the rescue efforts were hampered by the restrictions imposed under the zero-covid policy, as a result of which ten people died. The people are blaming Xi and the CCP for these deaths, their failure to control covid, and demanding they step down. The simmering anger and frustration of the people has finally boiled over.

As is to be expected from any dictatorship, the military has been deployed in many cities to control the mobs. Whether this proves effective this time around is doubtful. It is rumored that this is a bigger political game. Xi has just won this record third term and may become the Chinese President for life. He has had to purge many senior leaders of the CCP to get to this peak of power. It is said the leaders who were sidelined by Xi have now caused this unprecedented revolt amongst the people. There is as yet no reliable news out of China on this. Some of the top leaders of the PLA could also revolt and switch sides.

Experts are saying that the inner turmoil in China might lead Xi Jinping to create an external issue related to Chinese security as a divergence. It could be with India, Taiwan or even in the South China Sea. 

Will Xi be able to quell the protests by using force? It looks rather difficult. This turmoil has the potential to overturn the rule of the CCP. It is a classic case of concentration of political power. Too much concentration usually brings a fallout, as history teaches us. The more powerful you become, the nearer to the gate you are. The CCP’s control over the social media is also being circumvented by the people by using ingenious ideas. People are using VPNs, dating apps and coded language to get past the CCP’s surveillance. The pot has started to boil.  

It now looks like a straight fight between the people’s will and the absolute power of a dictator. To quote Peter Zeihan ‘a one man state is getting overwhelmed by non-compliance’. This is a policy paralysis typical to dictatorships. If one looks at political history of the world, the answer as to the result need not be a guess.