Navigating the Russia-China Nexus and Balancing Ties with Russia

 

India's strategic engagement in the geostrategic sphere has become increasingly complex with the emergence of the Russia-China nexus. As India tackles the challenges posed by this alignment, it must also navigate its compelling reasons to maintain close ties with Russia. Balancing these priorities is crucial to safeguarding India's national interests in an evolving global order.

Understanding the Russia-China Nexus:

The Russia-China nexus signifies the deepening partnership and collaboration between Russia and China on various fronts. This alliance has geopolitical implications, challenging the existing balance of power. Russia and China have cooperated extensively in areas such as trade, defense, and diplomacy, driven by shared interests in multi-polarity and countering the dominance of the United States. This strategic alignment poses both challenges and opportunities for India's foreign policy objectives.

India's Compulsions: Historical Ties with Russia:

India's close relationship with Russia is rooted in historical and geopolitical factors. The longstanding ties between the two countries date back to the Cold War era, characterized by cooperation in defense, space, energy, and technology. India and Russia have established a strong defense partnership, with Russia being India's largest arms supplier.

India's compelling reasons to maintain close ties with Russia include the mutual trust, reliability, and strategic autonomy that the relationship offers. Russia has been a consistent supporter of India's national security concerns, including its stance on territorial disputes. Moreover, Russia has been a valuable partner in areas such as nuclear energy, space exploration, and counterterrorism cooperation. India's close engagement with Russia also provides a counterbalance to the growing influence of China in the region.

The opening up of the Arctic presents many opportunities for Indian businesses. The Arctic region of Russia has many natural resources in large quantities. If India does not compete for them some other countries definitely will, namely China. China will completely dominate Russia, politically and financially and will take over all of the Russian natural resources. India does not want Russia dominated by China as that will make China very powerful and give it overwhelming Geo strategic advantage.

Tackling the Russia-China Nexus:

India has adopted a multi-dimensional approach to address the challenges posed by the Russia-China nexus while safeguarding its national interests. India recognizes the need to engage both Russia and China diplomatically and maintain a balanced approach.

To counterbalance the nexus, India has focused on strengthening strategic partnerships with other democratic powers. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, seeks to promote a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. This forum enhances cooperation on security, connectivity, and economic development while upholding the principles of a rules-based international order.

Furthermore, India has actively diversified its economic engagements beyond the Russia-China nexus. Initiatives such as the "Act East Policy" and "Connect Central Asia" aim to deepen trade, investment, and connectivity with Southeast Asian and Central Asian nations, respectively. These efforts help India expand its economic influence and reduce dependence on the nexus.

Conclusion:

India's approach to the Russia-China nexus involves maintaining a delicate balance between safeguarding its national interests and nurturing close ties with Russia. By pursuing strategic partnerships with other democratic powers and diversifying economic engagements, India aims to navigate the complexities of the evolving geostrategic landscape while preserving its historical relationship with Russia.

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Emerging Contours of a new World Order

 

The concept of a "new world order" is often used to describe a hypothetical future global system that reflects significant changes in political, economic, and social dynamics. While it is challenging to predict the exact contours of such a world order, several emerging trends can provide insights into the potential directions the world may be heading. Please note that these observations are based on current trends and should be considered speculative.

Shifting Power Dynamics: The global power balance is undergoing a significant transformation. The United States, traditionally considered the world's sole superpower, is facing increased competition from emerging powers such as China, India, and regional players like Brazil and Turkey. This multipolar distribution of power is likely to shape the new world order, with multiple centers of influence and more complex geopolitical dynamics.

Since the end of the pandemic the world has been in a flux. Geopolitics has taken center stage. New alliances are being worked out among nations. Old friendships are being replaced by new alliances hitherto unprecedented.

Nations are finding themselves in difficult situations and are looking for support from old friends, which many a times does not exist anymore.

The changes are challenging to say the least. The pre-pandemic world was different and a lot more predictable. That order was established after the Second World War. It was dominated by America and Europe, an alliance which emerged after the WWII. These powers who were the movers and shakers, and who called the shots. They largely decided the how the world worked and who got the benefits and who got the brickbats.

Now big developing countries like India and China are asserting themselves which hitherto they were reluctant to do. India bought the S400 missiles from Russia. Later India bought Russian oil, and now India could sign a deal with Iran to buy Iranian oil. All this under the threat of sanctions. One of the reasons this is happening is that power equations are changing.

Rise of China: China's rapid economic growth and assertive foreign policy have positioned it as a major global player. It is expected that China will continue to expand its influence, potentially challenging the United States' hegemony. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its increasing involvement in international organizations and alliances indicate its ambitions to shape the global order according to its interests.

Joe Biden had said a while ago that the World order is changing and America is going to lead it. This may or may not come true. America may remain an important power in the world, but other big players could emerge once the dust settles.

India and China have started to defy American power.  China brokered a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This could be a sign that US influence in the gulf is declining. Saudi Arabia is also buying Russian Oil. Saudi Arabia was a staunch ally of the US in the gulf. But since the coming of Biden, there has been some fallout among the two countries.

New connectivity projects are also on the cards which will change geo-economics in a few years. India is seeking to build the North – South Corridor starting from the Chabahar port in Iran, through Afghanistan and Central Asia, to Russia and Europe. This will reduce the importance of the Suez Canal in the next few years. This is why Egypt has offered India an industrial area near the canal for setting up manufacturing industries. 

Many disruptions are expected by changing power equations in international relations. The current big powers will find it difficult to stem the tide of other emerging nations as new regional and global players. This trend can be seen in the currently ongoing SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) Foreign Ministers meet in India. India has steadfastly refused to criticize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Rapid advancements in technology, including artificial intelligence, automation, and biotechnology, are reshaping various sectors of society. They have the potential to disrupt existing systems and industries, create new economic opportunities, and transform the global balance of power. Countries that lead in technological innovation are likely to have a significant advantage in shaping the new world order.

The increasing urgency of addressing climate change and promoting sustainability is likely to influence the new world order. Cooperation and collective action on climate-related challenges may become essential for global stability. Countries that prioritize renewable energy, environmental conservation, and sustainable development are likely to have a positive influence in shaping the new order.

It's important to note that predicting the future is inherently uncertain, and unforeseen events or developments could significantly alter the trajectory of global affairs. The emerging contours of a new world order will be shaped by complex interactions among various actors, trends, and events in the coming years. Add to this the emerging trend of nationalism in countries and strong governments which can disrupt power equations to influence domestic politics.

It will be interesting to see after the dust settles on this change.