Recently, that is for the last three years China has been in the news for the wrong reasons. Since the start of the pandemic which the world suspects started in the Chinese city of Wuhan, there has not been any good news coming out of China.
China opened border disputes with most of its
neighbouring countries. In case of India, China broke most of the border
agreements which had been in place for the last thirty years. For no credible
reason China changed its stance and became aggressive in its posture towards
India. This resulted in a clash between the border patrols of both the
countries. Twenty Indian soldiers were killed in the clash. China took nine
months to declare their dead, and when they did declare, they insisted only
five soldiers were killed which the world took as propaganda.
Next, China unleashed its wolf warrior diplomacy on
the world. If any country questioned China’s intensions, they faced the ire of
the Communist Party of China. Chinese diplomats made aggressive statements and
threatened the country with use of force or trade embargoes. Australia faced
the wrath of the CCP when it demanded investigations into the origin of the
Wuhan virus.
China was never viewed as a belligerent nation. Much
less as a potential threat to world order. It was hoped that China’s rise would
be peaceful and that China would veer towards some sort of a democracy as it
prospered. That is why the US supported its economic rise. But the coming of Xi
Jinping stopped that. Today it is obvious that China under the current regime
will not rise peacefully.
Xi Jingping is becoming more like Mao Zedong. He has
steadily concentrated all the political power in China in his hands. All the opposition
was removed under the garb of a drive against corruption which is a classic
dictatorial style. There is no personal freedom in China. The ordinary citizen
in China cannot criticize the CCP or its current leadership. Those who talk,
simply disappear, sometimes permanently. Dr. Lee the whistle blower at the
start of the pandemic supposedly died of covid. Ant group chairman Jack Ma, was
also made to disappear for months after he criticized the CCP. Tennis
player Peng Shuai is missing after she accused a Senior CCP member
of sexual harassment.
One man’s political ambition is what is driving the current wayward behaviour of China. China’s economy has lost steam. Tech companies were reigned in as they were becoming too big and could have challenged the CCP itself. Xi's problem is that he has to now constantly overreach in order to achieve his political goals. A slowing economy has brought more problems for the CCP. As long as the Chinese economy was growing, the fissures were not very obvious. But now that the Chinese economy has slowed down, it has shown that the government policies were flawed at the outset. Case in point is the Evergrande crisis and the meltdown in the Chinese real estate market.
The Chinese people are being completely isolated from the rest of the world as the government does not allow any of the international social media networks in China for fear of foreign influence. This isolation has enabled the Chinese government to conduct cultural and religious genocide on its minorities. The Chinese people have no say whatsoever in how their country is run. The CCP does not encourage political dialogue among its population. In fact, anybody indulging in such a dialogue is ruthlessly prosecuted.
Single party lawless dictatorships are a disaster when it comes to fast economic development. The cost in terms of environmental damage is huge. China uses more resources (and causes more pollution) to increase its per capita income by a unit than any advanced country. The old Soviet Union was also grossly inefficient in its utilisation of resources.
There has also been a gradual shift in the narrative inside China. Nowadays Xi Jinping talks a lot about China being under threat. He talks about Chinese sovereignty. Even during the recent failed India-China border talks, this change in Chinese narrative was noticed. According to Peter Zeihan, Xi Jinping has shot all the messengers. Anybody who is intelligent is a threat, including Jack Ma and other Tech leaders. The top leader does not get correct information about the Chinese economy. And as the every aspect of the Chinese economy is micro managed, mistakes are being made. The recent power shortage in China is a result of this lack of feedback from the lower rungs of the bureaucracy. The messenger with bad news is shot, so nobody wants to be that carrier of bad news.
What China really needs is a democratic system of governance. This may sound cliched, but, a democratically elected government is more responsible and above all more accountable. China has a big leverage over the rest of the world and especially the USA as it is a manufacturing hub. This anomaly however can be corrected. The world needs to wean itself away from China.
Given the CCP’s behaviour during the last two years, Xi has become the biggest liability for China. And his rule-for-life obsession will exacerbate that liability. A democratic system in China will make it less aggressive and more responsible. The regime in China has to be made to understand that if China profits from a rules-based international system then it is the duty of Chinese leadership to follow the rules of the system. China and the rest of the world will benefit immensely from its transition to democracy. Though how this can be achieved is a question all unto itself.
