Troubled Neighbourhood

 

Sri Lanka: The Rajapaksa administration took substantial loans from China under the Belt and Road Initiative, which Sri Lanka struggled to repay. India stepped in with a $2 billion bailout package to help Sri Lanka manage its immediate financial crisis. Consequently, the Hambantota port was handed over to China due to unpaid loans. China is often seen as self-serving, while India is perceived as more considerate towards smaller nations. Chinese spy ships continue to dock in Sri Lanka however. Sri Lanka finds itself boxed between great power rivalries.

America: Although not a neighbor, the US plays a significant role in the Asian region. US-India relations have improved since Modi’s tenure began, despite occasional hiccups. India maintains an independent foreign policy, especially regarding the US. Trade and technology transfers, particularly military, are growing. However, the US has reservations about India’s ‘Strategic Autonomy’ and its stance on various geopolitical issues. For instance, India’s purchase of Russian oil during the Russia-Ukraine war displeased the US, which expects India to align with its policies. This independent stance by India affects US credibility globally and encourages other nations to act similarly. There are concerns about American arms left in Afghanistan ending up with terrorists in Kashmir, raising questions about whether this is accidental or intentional.

Nepal: Nepal has been under Chinese influence for some time, with China interfering in its affairs and using money to sway Nepali politics. This influence has led Nepal to adopt an anti-India stance, raising territorial claims and border issues. Despite being landlocked and heavily reliant on India for trade, Chinese influence remains strong. India-Nepal relations have been fluctuating. China, despite its influence, has not constructively helped Nepal, instead opting to buy influence as it does in other smaller countries.

Myanmar: Myanmar, another neighbor of India, has been under military junta rule for the past decade. The country has a troubled political history, with brief democratic periods like the election of Aung San Suu Kyi, followed by a return to autocracy. Historically unstable, Myanmar’s political landscape remains complex and challenging.

China

The standoff on the LAC continues, with India insisting on resolving border issues before normalizing relations, while China wants to separate trade from border disputes. China harasses countries in the South China Sea, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Japan, and maintains a presence in the Indian Ocean Region with spy ships and other assets. Chinese fishing fleets engage in illegal fishing as far as South America. China aims to unify Taiwan, but Taiwan remains wary due to China’s actions in Hong Kong. China’s Belt and Road projects, like the CPEC in Pakistan, are struggling.

Maldives

When Muizzu came to power in the Maldives two years ago, he was suspected of being backed by China. His ‘India Out’ campaign backfired as India halted aid and tourism, hurting the Maldivian economy. Muizzu has since tried to improve relations with India.

 Pakistan

Pakistan has been a thorn in India’s side since partition, excelling only in fomenting terrorism. Its economy is in shambles, with a looming balance of payments crisis, social fabric in tatters, and a ruling elite indifferent to the people’s plight. The country faces separatist movements and is on the verge of breaking up. All of India’s neighbors, except Sri Lanka, are now autocracies or dictatorships, facing internal or external troubles.

 

America does not want India to become powerful enough to challenge its hegemony. Experts believe India will need to take measures for its own security, possibly engaging the US to convey that opposing Indian interests could be counterproductive. This dynamics will become clearer after the US elections. The world order is changing, and countries are jostling for positions which they think are advantageous. When the dust settles, the world will not be the same.