For the better part of the last decade the South China Sea
has been in the news quite frequently.
The sea lanes in this part of the world carry one third of the world
trade by sea. Over the years, all countries around this rim have had disputes
regarding territorial waters. The
exclusive economic zones have been disputed between Vietnam, Myanmar, Malaysia
, Indonesia , Cambodia, Brunei, Thailand, Philippines and Taiwan. The sea here is almost landlocked. The disputing countries share borders and
inevitably, their claimed territorial waters overlap. All these countries being
comparable as to their economic and military strengths, there was never any
possibility of a war breaking out between them. Their governments knew they
could not win in a sustained or even a short war. Even a small skirmish would
disrupt the economy of the entire region. So there were local confrontations
between fishing boats of these countries or an occasional show of strength by
their navies. On top sat the USA which
had cobbled together a loose group of these Pacific rim countries mainly to
stop Russian economic influence from spreading in this region. This obviously was a cold war era
arrangement. Incidentally there are many islands in these waters which
are also claimed by some of the
mentioned countries.
There is much wealth in these waters. Fishing is an
important occupation as well as a major source of income for the countries.
There is oil and natural gas under the sea, largely unexplored. This dispute would have continued for decades
as the countries had stalemated each other.
But matters took a different turn with the rise of China. While there
was perfect competition between the earlier disputing countries, now an
elephant had entered into the room.
The rise of China was always a worrying factor for the
countries of the Pacific Rim. A soft American hegemony, buttressed by
generous economic and military aid kept
the smaller countries in line and under the American umbrella. A few years ago,
China trotted out a new map of the
region and claimed the entire South China Sea as its own. Their ‘nine dash
line’ as they call it, brushes against the territorial waters of all the
disputing countries. China started
reclaiming the Paracel, Spratly islands and the Mischief reef located in these
waters as well, in order to establish a military presence there. In response the Philippines went to the
United Nations for redressal of the dispute.
The UNCLOS ruled in favour of Philippines and asked China to vacate the
entire area and stop their occupation of the islands. Predictably, China has
refused to heed the UNLCOS (United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea) ruling and is now in the process of establishing
a missile base as well. Since the Trump administration seems to be uninterested
in continuing American leadership in this region, the smaller countries have
been feeling the heat from China. Since these countries find themselves wholly
unprepared to face China in a military or economic confrontation, they are
trying to get third countries involved in this situation.
Japan and India are
not party to this dispute. They have their disputes with China, but those
disputes concern their respective borders with China, either land or maritime.
Vietnam recently asked India to explore for oil in its territorial waters. There is also a pact between the two
countries for exploration for other resources. India may sell military
equipment and missiles to some of these countries to gain influence to counter
China. Now that the big countries who
are not direct parties to this dispute are getting involved, its become a cauldron of a potent
mixture. China has a double layered
strategy in this game. It openly disputes the claim of the smaller countries on
one hand, but has invested heavily in these countries through its Belt and Road
initiative. A sort of carrot and stick
policy.