Deciphering the Dragon

I was going to write on a topic which is on everybody’s mind. That of a road for post pandemic recovery of the world. But events closer to home concerning India’s security, especially relating to China, have now prompted me to take up this subject for this write-up.

After almost two months facing each other off, Chinese and Indian troops in eastern Ladakh, are now standing down and pulling back.  However two months is a long time to decipher Chinese actions and things seem to have become clearer now. 

The world is still preoccupied with the corona pandemic and most of the countries are just beginning to ease their months old lock downs. Even during the lock down Chinese territorial ambitions were quite evident in the South China Sea area. So much so that President Rodrigo Duterte of Philippines who was pandering to the Chinese wishes, has now suspended his anti-America policies which were about to be implemented. Recently China  had claimed that it had exclusive economic rights over the Natuna Sea which is a part of the South China Sea region. Of late, taking advantage of the preoccupation of the littoral countries with the pandemic, China sent its fishing vessels in these waters. One Chinese vessel was sunk with a warning. This has served to heighten tensions in the region. Indonesia has gone to the UN with a protest against unilateral Chinese actions.

One needs to look at the larger picture if one is to understand China’s current military adventurism. China has been growing steadily for the last three decades. Today the country is the workshop of the world.  The result is that China has become economically the number two power in the world after the USA. With this kind economic power, military power is a given. Now China thinks the balance of power in Asia is sufficiently skewed in its favor for it to alter status quo on the ground unilaterally. No country in Asia can match the Chinese in military strength going by its defense budget. Theoretically, if push comes to shove, the countries on the Pacific rim can give a good account of themselves collectively, but that is in the realm of theory. In reality nobody is going to test China’s military strength.  

One other reason for rising Chinese confidence is the retreat of America. Since Trump came to power, the USA has been busy disengaging from its commitments all over the world. From its NATO allies to its friends in the Pacific, the transactional administration of the country is now shirking its responsibilities as a superpower.  The USA was a bulwark against aggressive powers like China which try to coerce smaller and weaker nations. President Trump with his obsession to make America great again has in fact weakened the country strategically in the short term. Politically speaking, power vacuums last for a short time. China, which had made no secret of its superpower ambitions is now trying to make inroads into the space opened up due to the US retreat from its traditional spheres of influence. In Ladakh on the Indian border, China has been testing waters all the time. In the Doklam standoff in 2017 China tried to bully its way into the chicken neck area at the tri-junction border. This was thwarted by the Indian troops by standing firmly despite Chinese government and media throwing threats and tantrums. The Chinese never tire of these salami slicing tactics. President Obama once said that it was due to lack of American vigilance that the Chinese could come into the South China Sea.

The Chinese follow the teachings of Sun Tzu to the letter. Many a times their actions can be explained by taking a page from his teachings. Keeping your enemy off balance is one of the tactics they follow. Being unpredictable is another. For e.g. in a bizarre claim the Chinese have also said that Azerbaijan which shares a boundary with China should become a part of China. Such actions keep your enemy guessing helping you to retain the initiative.

The Indian Army and the government are also aware of how the Chinese mind works. Chinese transgressions are becoming a routine on the border. This could also be a tactic by the Chinese Communist party and the government to divert the people’s mind away from the problems at home, like a slowing economy with the resultant job loss. Today national fervor is at its highest on Chinese social media. The Chinese leadership is also used to making political statements by its actions. By their incursions into South China Sea and Ladakh, the Chinese may be saying  that they can go anywhere and do anything with impunity.

India is a part of the Quad group which was formed to counter Chinese aggressive behavior in Asia. India also joined other countries to demand accountability for the pandemic from China. In the last few years India has been building up its infrastructure along the LAC which was long neglected. It also recently changed its foreign investment policy with an obvious focus on China. Experts say the Chinese actions are a subtle warning to India not to add its voice to the growing anti-China rhetoric. There was also talk of the knives being out for President Xi Jinping due to China loosing face over the pandemic. China sees India as a future threat to its position as the leading power in Asia and perhaps the world.  

However the question remains as to what Beijing expects to gain by making aggressive moves against its neighbors. By riding roughshod over its neighboring countries China is forcing them to re-calibrate their security policies. The India Australia virtual summit is a direct result of Chinese aggressive behavior. One thing is very clear from Chinese behavior, that any agreement with them should be taken with a pinch of salt.

How far will China push to achieve its objectives is a matter of conjecture . We may get an answer to that as more and more countries begin to resist the Chinese juggernaut.