The Lancet Report

The world population survey published by the Lancet journal recently has revealed some interesting data. The study was undertaken by the Lancet journal involving lot of experts in various fields. Lancet is respected the world over for its competence and unbiased reporting.

Some of the interesting data that immediately comes to attention is that India’s population will peak by the year 2048 to 1.6 billion and will decline to about 1.09 billion by the year 2100. Even with this decline in total population, India will be the world’s most populous country.  China would have declined from 1.4b in 2017 to about 0.72 billion in 2100. The below table will give the reader an idea of the interesting and unexpected trends in world population growth.  The study covers 195 countries and the data highlighted here is limited by the scope of this article.

Population dynamics up to 2100 

2107	Country	2100
1.3 b	India	1.09 b
1.4 b	China	732 m
157 m	Bangladesh	87 m
206 m	Nigeria	791 m

We can see in the above table that Nigeria will overtake China by 2100. Bangladesh which today is considered overpopulated and backward will decline population wise and stabilize at a much lower level. At that level, experts say, Bangladesh could become the next Singapore. Even before this study came out, it was known that India’s population growth rate was declining. So at some point of time logic would dictate that its overall population would start reducing. The Lancet study puts this trend into perspective and quantifies it to the extent that it can be taken as a guideline for national planning.

What does this study mean for India? That is something our planners have to take into consideration for the future. In 2017 India was the 7^th economy globally in GDP terms. The country will be 3^rd highest in 2100. The Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 in 2019 will decline to 1.29 in 2100. The working age population in India will fall from 762 m in 2017 to 578 m in 2100. With this figure India will have the largest working age population in the world in 2100.

If India’s population is going to peak by 2048, then the demographic dividend has a run of about 28 years only. In this time frame the overall economic reforms have to take a hold. Economic planners have to hit the ground running as there are not even three full decades for the benefits to accrue. India’s economic reforms have been an on and off affair as successive governments backtracked on the reforms and introduced populist schemes which drained public resources.  If this survey is to be taken as a guideline, the government has to align the policies with the given time frame.

Educating the people, imparting the right skills, developing urban infrastructure will have to be undertaken on a war footing. Investing in human capital will be of utmost importance.  Urban infrastructure will entail transportation network, healthcare, sanitation and other facilities. This development will be necessary as there will be mass migrations as new jobs become available at industrial centers. The development will feed on itself with the result that national income will increase exponentially if the dividend is reaped successfully. The New Education Policy (NEP) which was revealed a few days ago, could not have come at a better time. The GST system, the Bankruptcy Code Bill too were steps in the right direction. But new labour laws have to be introduced and privatization of the public sector has to be fast tracked. Thus, a lot needs to be done yet.

Time is of utmost importance. 28 years is not a long time in the life of a nation and plans will have to be expedited on a war footing. India cannot afford to miss this bus as it could then be staring at a demographic disaster.