India China Clash - Testing Times

 

The current visit of the American Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense to India has to be looked at in the background of the on-going standoff with China.  While agreements are signed as and when both the signatories feel the need to do so, the current occasion definitely merits a closer look.

This time the Chinese are working to a plan. The timing may or may not be significant. Under Xi Jinping who has concentrated all the political power in his hands, this could be a make or break moment. Since he is President for life the consequences of his actions probably do not matter so much to him as say for a democratically elected leader. But having committed to unilateral belligerence the Chairman and his coterie of confidants have burned all their bridges.

By its belligerence China has sent notice to all its neighbours and to the big powers that they i.e. the Chinese, are the true big power in the region and every country should pay obeisance to it. China demands respect in the region. Three straight decades of growth have instilled some confidence in the top leadership of the CCP that they can pull it off.  A Deng Xiaoping would have taken a more subtle approach but Xi is a little bolder and perhaps more reckless. He set his agenda for what he wanted to achieve and then made himself President for life as the statutory two terms would not have been enough time for what he had in mind. Chinese leadership thinks that the moment has come to take charge of its destiny.

The BECA was signed during the current 2+2 dialogue between US and India, but earlier the LEMOA (Logistic Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) the COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and other such agreements have increased bilateral military cooperation between the two countries. The BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) was signed to help India get access to a range of geospatial, topographical, aeronautical and nautical data which will help it target missiles and deploy drones.

The geostrategic implications are not lost on anybody, much less on China. Despite its rhetoric on it respecting the rules based world order, China flouts norms when it suits it. China is also gradually taking over world forums like the UNHRC and the UN itself, increasing its influence by dishing out large sums of money or by offering repayment moratoriums or outright cancellations of huge developmental loans given to smaller countries.

Despite this, not everybody is keen on jumping on the free world bandwagon, as China wields considerable influence over smaller countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Some owe China money for loans taken earlier under the Belt and Road Initiative and others simply do not want to get involved in what they see as big power rivalry. So till to date China has had its way by twisting the international rule book and by bulldozing the rules when it suited them. Their propaganda arm works overtime whenever they flout international norms and tries to portray the country as a victim of international persecution. But the world is slowly waking up to these tactics. The Quad concept is a manifestation of the need felt by other free nations to counter Chinese aggression and bad behaviour.

But the Quad is yet to be tested. And tested it will be. The Chinese have shown that they can subtly tweak a system to get a minute advantage which looks like a pinprick in the bigger scheme of things. But it is a small gain and if the victim or target country does not respond they will keep on causing these minor provocations to test the limits of tolerance. The Quad has to decide at what point it will respond on this ladder of escalation. This is important because the Chinese will not stop their salami slicing until their adversary responds with a resoluteness and commitment which is conveyed unequivocally through actions.

India’s actions on the LAC when it responded to the Chinese attack can be cited here. The Chinese clearly took the worst of the exchange on June 15. The casualties they suffered sent a clear message to the top CCP leadership that they had reached the tolerance limit of their adversary and decided to  proceed more cautiously. The sooner the Chinese are given this message in an exchange the better, as otherwise their provocations continue relentlessly.

Firm action by the Quad will go a long way to convince the fence sitting smaller nations that there is organized resistance to Chinese aggression. The proof of the pudding is in eating it, the Quad may have to prove itself before long in order to protect the rules based world order.

India China Clash - Collateral Damage

 

There has been a marked shift in the rhetoric coming out of China in the past few days. While on the surface there does not seem to be any change in the aggressive posturing that the CCP usually adopts, one can detect a minute shift in the stance that the Chinese are taking. 

It may be possible that the dragon has now found out that it has bitten off more than it can chew but more so from the realisation that the game was not going in its favour.  The first reverse came when the Indian army and the Ghatak commandos gave a very good account of themselves in the clash on 15th June. This incident, more than anything else put the brakes on the Chinese ambitions. The Chinese establishment were not expecting casualties. China has been building up an image of the PLA and in general its armed forces for some time now. They had carefully cultivated an image where they touted their force modernisation and their drive for expanding its scope and reach. Acquiring new bases and occupying islands in the South Pacific. How much the world bought into this image is a matter of conjecture, but a general impression among the smaller neighbours was that China had a strong modern military. 

This myth about the strength was shattered on June 15th as China suffered casualties in the skirmish with the Indian army. The CCP made it worse by not declaring PLA casualties, as then speculation was rife all over that the Chinese suffered more dead than the Indian Army. 

 It was known that China had no experience of fighting a war since their last clash with Vietnam in 1975. And they came a cropper when they were tested on the June 15th clash. This reflects on the other branches of the Chinese armed forces as well. If the PLA could not hold its own against the seasoned Indian Army, what about the PLA Navy and the Air Force? These doubts will now be raised. This is the collateral damage China has suffered. Chinese military expansionism was looked at as a sign of Chinese military strength. But with the Galwan incident, it is now clear that the PLA suffers the same vulnerabilities as any other force in the world, probably even more so.