Cyber Warfare - Issue on the Anvil

 

The recent news that the Mumbai electric grid shutdown in October 2020 was possibly an attack by Chinese state backed hackers was interesting and alarming at the same time. It has set alarm bells ringing because the incident shows that technology connected over any network can be easily rendered ineffective causing serious disruption. 

The US based company Recorded Future has reported that the cyber attack on the Mumbai electricity grid was possibly carried out by a hacker group, the Red Echo based on the Chinese mainland and were backed by the Chinese government, in other words the Chinese Communist Party. While this is not the first attack, it also will not be the last. As the internet becomes more powerful the threat of cyber warfare has gained currency among the national security establishments across the world. 

There are watchdogs around the globe. Private companies and organisations which continuously monitor the net for tell tale signs of cyber attacks. These entities keep a tab on who is doing what on the net. That China has a well funded cyber warfare program is known to all. It is not known how advanced or sophisticated their capabilities are. China has whole organisations controlled by the CCP or the military which are dedicated to enhancing the nation's capability in cyber warfare. Chinese state backed hackers have been stealing technology secrets from private companies as well as government agencies in a lot of countries. Even Russia was accused of running a misinformation campaign designed to help the Republicans in 2019 elections. Trump  allegedly was helped by this Russian interference in the American electoral process. Such sophisticated cyber attacks have now become common place.   

With the IOT (Internet of Things)- where things or devices talk and communicate with each other- expanding and coming more into use, the threat of cyber warfare is getting bigger by the day. Not only nations, but institutions, companies and indivisuals will also be facing this threat in the near future. One more report in the US in October 2020 had named a malware SlothfulMedia which was used by Chinese government hackers to spy on indivisuals and companies in India. Other Central Asian and Europesn countries were also targeted in this cyber attack.

It does not take too much guesswork to understand where things are headed. In case of a real war you can completely paralyse your enemy by attacking his Supply chain logistics, industrial production, transportation, financial system etc. In short a country can seriously destroy its enemy's ability to make war or even its ability to defend itself by disrupting its communication networks. Two can play the same game here. If your production and supplies are disrupted, all the soldiers and equipment on your borders are of no use as they cannot fight without support. The military forces of the world are heavy users of computers and electronics for communication. This is now proving to become their Achilles heel.  

For the foreseeable future cyber warfare is going to be a vital part of any nation's defence repertoire. Network centric warfare capability will be the key in gaining the upper hand in any conflict. Tanks and planes will still be important, but they will be controlled by intelligent networks.  This cat and mouse game of attacks and counter measures is just the beginning. It is not unlike the Big Game which was played between the Super Powers during the cold war. In the near future super intelligent college going teenagers would perhaps have more to do with this kind of a war than generals commanding large armies.    

Trump's Triumph

It has been  some time since the change of administration in the USA but Donald Trump is still in the headlines for one reason or the other. Not being a politician, the man is a political rarity. America's leadership has always been put under a microscope by other countries of the world for the simple reason that whatever happens on Capitol Hill and in the White House affects the whole world. 

Trump's 'America First' policy went directly against China's carefully controlled economic aggression on the world. He believed more in a quid pro quo approach. Unilateral concessions from the US were made conditional on the US getting access to markets it wanted. The signal was that the US was not a benefactor for all the sundry. The country most affected by this change in rules was China. China had extracted the most concessions from the US over the years and was flouting America's trade rules. This was stopped by Trump.  China was forced to negotiate a trade deal which would correct the balance of payments which were hither to in favour of China.  

Even on the foreign policy front Trump managed to rein in Chinese aggression. China was told very bluntly that its aggression in the South China Sea would not be tolerated. The Quad was backed by the US. This was a major achievement of Trump. The Quad (comprises USA, India, Japan, Australia) is becoming a potent force against any power which would want to compromise freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. 

China's  entry into Eastern Europe was stopped by the US trade retaliation. CEE (Central and Eastern European) countries like Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Poland and others along with the EU were given an offer by China wherein China would invest in these countries to increase trade with them. In fact a big group - named 17 + 1 i.e. 17 European countries and the plus one (China) - was created sometime in 2012-13. The project was later brought under the Belt and Road Initiative. However, like all Chinese big ticket projects this too was big on promises but was lacking in actual investments. The real spanner in the works was put by America, led by Trump. Trump began to impose tariffs on Chinese goods which disrupted all Chinese calculations. With its trade disrupted badly due to the pandemic and the US actions, China began to renege on its promises and paid lip service to their commitments to the 17 + 1 Group. Today many of the CEE countries have decided not to participate in this venture. The reason for China's failure are Trump's quid pro quo trade policies. 

After giving Greece millions in loans, China had pressurised her to stop an anti China resolution in the European Parliament regarding the Chinese actions in Hong Kong. This shows that China had an ulterior motive in striking a trade deal with the European Union. Trump's China centric trade policies brought into focus the way China was flouting international trade rules globally. 

Washington think tanks had already identified China as America's biggest challenge in the coming years. Trump's 'America First' policy sent a clear signal to the Chinese leadership that their blatant expansionism will not go unchallenged. 

Political commentators generally agree that Trump was a disaster for the US. Trump never observed the subtle nuances in his dealings as a leader of a country is expected to. He went after his objectives with hammer and tongs. His praises and admonishments on twitter were embarrassing to say the least. A career politician would not have been so brazen in his dealings with friend and foe and probably not as effective either. 

The one area of US foreign policy where Trump made all the right moves was its dealings with  China. The Biden administration has signaled that it will follow many of those policies. 

A mention has to be made of the one more change we have seen during the Trump period. The Abraham Accords that has brought Israel into the Middle eastern mainstream. These accords will have a far reaching effects in the years to come. 

The way Trump dealt with China and the rest of the world may not have been in accordance with the established protocols of maintaining international relations, but it has provided a possible road map to handle some of the problems of the Free world.  

 

Climate Change - Action now

 

The climate change issue has come back on center stage even as the corona vaccination drives roll out in the world and man's preoccupation with the pandemic reduces. The daily bread and butter issues facing the world have begun to rear their heads again.

Why has this issue cropped up lately? Since the early seventies it was known that mankind is polluting the planet with his industries and his automobiles. The matter was taken up but it was assumed that we have a lot of time on our hands to mitigate our wrongdoings since the industrial revolution. But in recent years it has become clear that man does not have much time to correct the problems facing the environment. Forest fires, unseasonal rains causing floods, a shift of the seasons and bouts of unpredictable weather has brought it home to humans that we may be already too late to take any concerted and effective action on climate change.

Some of the changes predicted by climate scientists in the last century are now coming true. Rising sea levels due to melting of polar ice. Loss of sea plankton due to rising water temperatures, frequent forest fires, unpredictable heat and cold waves and flooding due to excessive rains. The IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the impact of temperature change of even two degrees will be considerable. Even if some areas benefit temporarily from rising temperatures, the overall impact of the change will be not be beneficial. 

In the last one hundred years the average temperature on earth has increased by about two degrees Fahrenheit. This may not seem to be much but the life on earth is remarkably sensitive to minute temperature changes. The economic impact of this change in teperature is going to be enormous over the years. Some islands in the Pacific will go under the water completely. Agricultural production will suffer with consequences for world food supply. Also animal husbandry and the meat industry including fishing will also be affected adversely. All over the world some of the more sensitive flora and fauna will face extinction. The change in temperature is going to have a profound impact on mankind. It could also cause new diseases as different viruses and other harmful germs find the climatic change favourable for their growth and survival.

Scientists also say that the warming is actually an indication that an ice age is coming. There is no time table for this prediction however as data is not conclusive enough to predict a time frame. However fossilised evidence, tree rings and coral reef analysis has helped scientists put togehter a picture which shows that an ice age had indeed followed a warming up of the average earth temperature. Warming up of the average temperature also means that the frost free or growing season for crops in colder latitudes will be longer. But this reducing of the frost season scientists say could cause more frequent crop diseases. 

Climate experts still do not know if we have passed the point of no return for climate change. Whether we still have time to reverse at least some of the mistakes of the past. There is also a divide between the rich and the developing nations on who should shoulder the responsibility and the considerable expenses involved in addressing this problem. The industrial revolution happened in the last century and was the reason why pollution increased exponentially. The developing and the poor countries think that they were never a part of the revolution and they hardly received any benefits from it.  Therefore the rich countries who benefitted from the revolution should pay for the cleaning of the pollution that was caused then. This political thug-a-lug has been a major roadblock in climate negotiations. 

With America back in the reckoning the climate dialogue has become meaningful again. A focussed approach and sincerety of purpose is what is expected from all the member countries if the accord is to succeed in implemeting the measures reccommended.  It remains to be seen if the rich countries pull their own weight and some more.  The scientist have said that there is no time to loose and that we already may be late in starting. Failure, though not an option anymore, would be a big embarrasment, and the stakes are very high.