The current prices of petroleum have sparked a
debate across the world about switching to alternative fuels. Goldman Sachs has
predicted that Brent Crude will touch $110 per barrel early in the new year.
Thus, it looks as though high oil prices are here to
stay for a while. Whenever oil prices shoot up the world clamours for
alternative fuels. As the prices subside, the noise dies down and everyone goes
back to their routine, which includes filling up one’s vehicle with fossil
fuel.
However, this time with the havoc caused by the
pandemic, the world economy has already taken a hit. Incomes have crashed and
recovery will take some time to gather steam. High cost of fuel was the last
thing the world wanted. It is proving to be an impediment for recovery and has
put an unnecessary burden on the exchequer.
How this situation could have been avoided can
become a separate topic for discussion. However, the pandemic has caused a
serious loss of productivity in all sectors of the economy, and oil cannot be an
exception. However, oil prices were high even in early 2019 before the pandemic
struck the world. So, this time the debate around alternative fuels seems to be
rather more serious than any time in the past. Coal prices have also shot up on
the back of higher demand and supply bottlenecks.
There are many alternative fuel technologies vying
for mainstream use. None of them has reached a stage where the world can
immediately switch. However, all have shown promise and potential. Hydrogen
fuel cell, electricity (mainly battery technology), bioethanol/biogas (with
flex engines), solar power, etc. are some of the technologies currently being
researched the world over.
The lowest hanging fruit here looks like bioethanol/biogas
used with flex engines. Brazil has already adopted this technology and uses
flex engine technology with a 20% mixture of ethanol in petrol. Bioethanol can
be derived from agricultural produce and waste. Some experts have red flagged
this alternative as it might affect supply of agricultural produce. Producers
or farmers will prefer selling their crop to fuel companies which will offer
better prices than grain wholesalers.
Electricity has also shown a lot of promise and
electric cars are becoming fairly common. In India there are many companies now
investing in various electric mobility technologies. But this technology will
take a few years to mature as new materials like lithium, sodium, aluminum, are
tested. Current electric vehicles have very limited range as electricity
storage technology is still in its infancy.
Solar energy has proved difficult to adopt for use
in transportation. Solar energy is probably the least promising of all the
alternative technologies currently available for use.
One of the most promising technologies is however
Hydrogen fuel Cell. Fuel cells use hydrogen to produce electricity without
combustion. The engine emits only water vapour as waste. This is a very
promising technology but also needs time to become more practical.
There are no easy solutions here. Which technology
will the world use? It looks as though
it will be a combination of all the alternatives mentioned above. Of course, a
completely new technology might present itself in the near future. This cannot
be ruled out. However, nothing seems to be on the horizon yet. But millions of
dollars are being poured into research and development of alternative fuels. The
next decade might reveal the technology which will wean the world away from
fossil fuels.
