Disruptions and the emerging new World Order

 

Ever since the pandemic hit the world in 2019, the world has not seen a single normal day. These last three years have been like a roller coaster ride for the world. Nevertheless the experts are saying we may be past the worst of the corona pandemic. However the ride just got faster and it is not stopping.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has started and the world has had to remain strapped in even as it sees the pandemic waning. Globalization has made countries so interdependent that any disturbance in any corner of the world causes disruptions in other parts of the globe.

Of late, i.e. in the last two years, supply chains have become crucial for economic development. If you are a part of the some supply chain, you get a piece of the action and benefits follow.

However, these chains are vulnerable to even small disruptions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a small disruption by any standards. Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of commodities like wheat, oil, and Soya and rare minerals like palladium, platinum, Lithium etc. These countries also have a robust defense industry with world-wide links. All these supply chains are now broken as both countries are at war. This has affected many countries badly.

The call went out from the west and NATO allies to the rest of the world to sever ties with Russia as it was the aggressor. However the call was not heeded. A subtle shift has been noticed in policies followed by some countries in the world, especially the emerging powers. India, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia. These countries are not towing the American and European line in Toto in formulating their foreign policy in this crisis. Experts are saying that there has been so much disruption in the last two years due to the pandemic, that countries are today more interested in securing their national interests than seen to be towing the western line.

Notwithstanding the human rights violations and the nullifying of the sovereignty of Ukraine, governments which are already besieged with their domestic problems because of the pandemic are not impressed by this call to force even more hardships on their people. This gives rise to the argument that perhaps the double whammy of the pandemic and now the war has changed the mindset in some political circles of the globe. The geo-strategic views are not seen in black and white. Some grey areas are now visible. Countries like India are not willing to take sides in this conflict.

US foreign policy has become somewhat weak and less effective in the last few years. The US had pressurised the leader of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman on the issue of the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi terming it as human rights violation by the regime. Saudi Arabia now has refused to tow the American line on its Russia-Ukraine policy. It has also refused to increase the production of oil to shore up the rising fuel prices because of the conflict, even after a visit by British PM Boris Johnson. Moreover, Saudi Arabia may accept payments in Yuan for the oil they sell to China. India also may enter into a Rupee-Rouble trade agreement with Russia and a Rupee-Rial agreement with Iran. The dollar hegemony has been challenged.    

China and Russia have signed a no limits treaty which entails cooperation between the two countries in the face of trouble with the west. Thus, there are a lot of challenges to the power of the US. This unipolarity (US domination) in world geopolitics may not last long as countries like India and China assert themselves regarding their own national interests.

A new world order may emerge in the coming decade. The dynamics of this new world order cannot be predicted at this juncture. But geopolitics will see some profound and fundamental changes in the near future.    

The Ukraine Crisis and the Ripple Effect

 

It has been some times since the build-up to the current stalemate in Ukraine reached its zenith. Actually nothing has really moved on the ground except for the troops of Russia. The problem with modern crises of this kind is that the involved parties are seldom enthusiastic about taking the conflict to its logical end. This is not hard to understand. For one thing, modern wars can never be won convincingly. Even for a superpower like America getting involved in a conflict brings a lot of problems in its wake, some of them entirely unforeseen. Not the least is collateral damage.

Modern wars have serious repercussions, most of them unpleasant. Domestic industry may get a  boost and employment levels shoots up. However, everything else goes south. The stock market crashes due to uncertainties, the fuel prices rise due to speculation, trade embargoes and sanctions kick in. As a result of this the economy takes a hit.

The Ukraine crisis has its roots in history. Russia has always claimed Ukraine as its own since the time it was ruled by the czars. In the interim period leaders like Stalin and Khrushchev tried to consolidate Russian influence over Ukraine. Stalin even orchestrated a famine in Ukraine in which millions died. Russia also sent some of its own people to Ukraine as immigrants. As a result almost one fourth of the Ukrainians speak Russian, especially in the eastern part. These ethnic Russians have an affinity for Russia and are even willing to merge their geographical areas with Russia.

We cannot ignore the fact that the military-industrial complex in America is in search of fresh pastures after their successful sojourn in Afghanistan. America’s ruling elite are heavily invested in this complex. They were facing the question ‘after Afghanistan, what? The answer was provided by the Ukraine crisis.   

The problem with going to war is that Russia with all its troops and weapons will come out worse in this conflict. Its economy is weak. Foreign investment has all but dried up. Though it looks like the west holds all the cards here, it may not be all that simple. Concerted action by NATO may be difficult. Europe depends heavily on Russian gas. This may not change much in the near future as Russia needs the dollars, this is more so in face of looming sanctions.  Even if Russia takes over Ukrainian territory, it will not be able to hold it. Russia lacks the economic resilience for a drawn out war and occupation.

Getting concessions from the west may not be easy. Putin cannot afford to overplay his hand. On the other hand he cannot make empty threats for fear of losing credibility.

The world has polarized on this issue. The response has been somewhat piecemeal. In Europe, Germany only now, has agreed to send weapons to Ukraine and arm itself. China and India have their take on this issue. India finds its strategic space getting restricted due to its dependence on Russian arms. China will critically view a similar campaign against Taiwan depending on the response from the west to this attack.

Any weakness shown by the democracies will have a cascading effect on all the border disputes which China has with its neighbours. China could forcibly try to take over territories it claims from Nepal, Bhutan, India, Mongolia, Kirghizstan, etc. It would further exploit this weakness by blatantly ignoring all international treaties.

Along with NATO, the Quad will also be tested. The democracies will have to be careful how they react to this crisis. This is a testing time for the free nations as Russia may also aim for a regime change in Ukraine.

Ukraine leadership has failed in its diplomacy. Nobody has come forward and said they will send troops. Some material help has been promised by Europeans and the Americans, but compared to the crisis engulfing Ukraine, it’s grossly inadequate.

Moreover it is very easy to be hundreds of miles away and advise others to fight. The way America got out of Afghanistan has not impressed anyone. Ukraine leadership should keep their national interest first if they have to tide over this crisis.

According to some experts the west it seems was pushing Russia to the wall. NATO membership has expanded and now will touch the borders of Russia, if Ukraine becomes a member. What Putin wants to achieve is still unclear. The signals are that he wants Ukraine to capitulate without conditions. The nuclear threat by him is rather of an overkill and is rightly being overlooked by America. The more time he spends in Ukraine, the more he stands to lose especially as there are signs of restlessness among his own people as the sanctions have started to bite. And more are on the way. Putin will do well to end this conflict ASAP.

The free world is not united in its response to this crisis. Every country is looking at its own national interests, however, all should know, that a show of weakness due to lack of cohesion by the free world will put the entire rules-based order in jeopardy.