Disruptions and the emerging new World Order

 

Ever since the pandemic hit the world in 2019, the world has not seen a single normal day. These last three years have been like a roller coaster ride for the world. Nevertheless the experts are saying we may be past the worst of the corona pandemic. However the ride just got faster and it is not stopping.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has started and the world has had to remain strapped in even as it sees the pandemic waning. Globalization has made countries so interdependent that any disturbance in any corner of the world causes disruptions in other parts of the globe.

Of late, i.e. in the last two years, supply chains have become crucial for economic development. If you are a part of the some supply chain, you get a piece of the action and benefits follow.

However, these chains are vulnerable to even small disruptions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a small disruption by any standards. Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of commodities like wheat, oil, and Soya and rare minerals like palladium, platinum, Lithium etc. These countries also have a robust defense industry with world-wide links. All these supply chains are now broken as both countries are at war. This has affected many countries badly.

The call went out from the west and NATO allies to the rest of the world to sever ties with Russia as it was the aggressor. However the call was not heeded. A subtle shift has been noticed in policies followed by some countries in the world, especially the emerging powers. India, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia. These countries are not towing the American and European line in Toto in formulating their foreign policy in this crisis. Experts are saying that there has been so much disruption in the last two years due to the pandemic, that countries are today more interested in securing their national interests than seen to be towing the western line.

Notwithstanding the human rights violations and the nullifying of the sovereignty of Ukraine, governments which are already besieged with their domestic problems because of the pandemic are not impressed by this call to force even more hardships on their people. This gives rise to the argument that perhaps the double whammy of the pandemic and now the war has changed the mindset in some political circles of the globe. The geo-strategic views are not seen in black and white. Some grey areas are now visible. Countries like India are not willing to take sides in this conflict.

US foreign policy has become somewhat weak and less effective in the last few years. The US had pressurised the leader of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman on the issue of the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi terming it as human rights violation by the regime. Saudi Arabia now has refused to tow the American line on its Russia-Ukraine policy. It has also refused to increase the production of oil to shore up the rising fuel prices because of the conflict, even after a visit by British PM Boris Johnson. Moreover, Saudi Arabia may accept payments in Yuan for the oil they sell to China. India also may enter into a Rupee-Rouble trade agreement with Russia and a Rupee-Rial agreement with Iran. The dollar hegemony has been challenged.    

China and Russia have signed a no limits treaty which entails cooperation between the two countries in the face of trouble with the west. Thus, there are a lot of challenges to the power of the US. This unipolarity (US domination) in world geopolitics may not last long as countries like India and China assert themselves regarding their own national interests.

A new world order may emerge in the coming decade. The dynamics of this new world order cannot be predicted at this juncture. But geopolitics will see some profound and fundamental changes in the near future.