On a Newfound Solid Footing

The Ministry of External Affairs in India was always in the news as it dealt with the country’s foreign relations. But it was never in the news for strong and unequivocal promotion of Indian interests in the world.

But now there is a marked difference in the way foreign policy is being handled. There is a confidence borne out by the fact that whenever India speaks at world body meetings, countries take notice. The global south has perhaps found a new mentor as being a developing country, many of India’s interests coincide with their own.

This change has come about in the last two years, especially after the pandemic. However, the signs were visible during the pandemic as well.  India’s vaccine diplomacy was much appreciated during that time.  Many countries in South America and Africa had not received any vaccines even a year into the pandemic. India sent vaccines all over the world in response to requests from countries.

The new chapter in Indian diplomacy started when China entered Galwan in eastern Ladakh and tried to claim territory which is at best disputed. In doing so they backtracked on agreements which had enabled trust to be built up for over three decades. India decided to take active measures to deter China from its misadventures. India began a series of diplomatic initiatives to engage China. It also started measures to decouple its economy from China. This was a bold step as compared to the meek responses which India had taken earlier in repose to China’s incursions along the border.

The Russia Ukraine war was the incident which showed the world a new avatar of India. Confident and resilient. The war brought in its wake supply chain disruptions and skyrocketing oil prices. Russia was offering oil at discounted prices to circumvent sanctions imposed by the US and Europe. India bought oil from Russia despite the pressure from the west to adhere to the moral high ground and show solidarity with the west. Russia was an old, trusted friend who has genuinely helped India in the past, even at times using its veto power in the UN. India was not about to abandon Russia despite its aggression in Ukraine.

This rankled the west which had till now taken India’s foreign policy for granted. They assumed that India would toe the line of the west and abandon Russia which India refused to do.

The change in India’s foreign policy is mainly due to a strong government at the center. This government has shown the courage to back its convictions. National interest is now front and center. India was able to weather high oil prices in the world due to its buying of discounted oil from Russia.

India’s foreign policy today reflects sobriety, balance and above all dogged determination. As the EAM said India is in nobody’s camp. India is in India’s camp. This message has gone out loud and clear, so much so that the US has acknowledged that India can buy as much Russian oil as its wants.

Since independence, India has also been dragged in the dock on various issues like erosion of democracy and personal freedom. Many think tanks and academics across the world have been criticizing India for what they call its rising political autocracy. In answer, experts in India are questioning the methodologies and techniques adopted by these agencies, as well as demanding that Indian rating agencies should now counter the foreign ones. Earlier India used to meekly accept any ratings that the foreign agencies dished out.

India’s policy towards Pakistan has also been articulated most unequivocally. India will not enter into any talks with Pakistan unless it stops its funding for cross border terrorism. Also, it has dealt firmly with Chinese designs on claiming and forcefully occupying Indian Territory. The Chinese military buildup along the LAC has been matched by India to deter any misadventure. India is also building its own infrastructure along the border areas. The diplomatic heft that India is showing its neighbors has been matched by action on the ground. This is the solid footing on which India’s foreign policy is standing. India can now play to its strengths when it assumes the G20 Presidency in December.

After the G20 Summit in Bali a CNN report said that a new world power is emerging in Asia, and it is not China. 

Imdia is also hosting the meeting of the National Security Advisors of the Central Asian Republics (most of the CIS) with regard to its security interests in Afghanistan. It is significant that the meeting could have been held under the umbrella of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization but was not. India wants to keep its security interest paramount in the region and hence wants to lead these countries.

It is said there will be an economic recession in the world by next year. Several wars are being fought across the world. The next few years are going to be turbulent to say the least. The current Indian policy rooted in national interest and resting on a solid footing of commitment and confidence, stemming from rising economic clout, will stand India in good stead, to navigate the troubled times ahead.

Shifting Sands of Geopolitics

 

The Geo-political sand never stays in one place. Like the proverbial sand of the desert, it is forever shifting, creating new alignments and shifting old ones.

In geopolitics too, there have been subtle changes happening in the alignment of nations. Countries are changing their stance and positions as the situation on the ground changes.

A few weeks earlier the west was insisting that India reduce its purchase of oil from Russia in order to show solidarity with the free world.

India did not condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine but was consistent in its call for dialogue and diplomacy. However, the west wanted India to be categorical in its support for Ukraine. But in this war geo-economics has also played an important role. With war came the inevitable inflation. Oil prices increased and countries scrambled to look for deals which suited them.  The situation was exacerbated due to earlier sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, two big suppliers in the world.

India’s policy was consistent that it will buy oil from whatever source at affordable rates. And it stuck to its guns over a period of six months or so.

Recently, in a policy about - turn, the US is not objecting to India’s purchase of Russian oil. The shift has come because the US now realizes that it needs India more than India needs the US. Also, US policy makers are of the opinion that the US needs India to counter China if hostilities ever break out and even otherwise. Western sanctions on the other hand have not proved quite effective against Russia as Russia is a major producer of two important commodities which the world needs. Oil and wheat.

Also, the US needs India to back it up economically. The US is promoting what it calls the Indo Pacific Economic Forum. This is an alliance conceived by the US. It includes countries in the southern Pacific Ocean which will balance China on the economic front. Without India this alliance does not amount to much. With India it becomes an excellent counterweight to China. Thus, the US is keen to get India on board in this project.

The US is also talking about friend shoring. This term signifies the US will only source its imports from countries that it considers to be friendly and reliable. This also signifies that the US does not consider China as a reliable partner anymore.

This shifting of businesses will involve tradeoffs, some quid pro quo, as India is also dependent on the US for defense and other critical technology. However, the US giving a free hand to India regarding purchase of oil from Russia signifies the US views the relationship as a long term one. Incidentally India is the only country in Asia which has stood up to the Chinese bullying tactics.

The ongoing G20 Summit is being watched closely by experts as it might give an indication as to where the world may be headed. China, for all its bravado regarding Taiwan may not actually initiate hostilities. The Chinese leadership knows China cannot withstand western sanctions and neither can it counter the American military might. China may act against India, Japan and Vietnam keeping in view its territorial claims.

The Russia Ukraine war has drastically altered the energy and trade flows in the world. Many Indian private producers like Reliance and Nayara have benefitted by exporting refined oil products to Europe and the US.

The geopolitical chessboard is a busy place currently. Moves and counter moves are being played out between nations and world leaders. We are headed for some interesting times.