Shifting Sands of Geopolitics

 

The Geo-political sand never stays in one place. Like the proverbial sand of the desert, it is forever shifting, creating new alignments and shifting old ones.

In geopolitics too, there have been subtle changes happening in the alignment of nations. Countries are changing their stance and positions as the situation on the ground changes.

A few weeks earlier the west was insisting that India reduce its purchase of oil from Russia in order to show solidarity with the free world.

India did not condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine but was consistent in its call for dialogue and diplomacy. However, the west wanted India to be categorical in its support for Ukraine. But in this war geo-economics has also played an important role. With war came the inevitable inflation. Oil prices increased and countries scrambled to look for deals which suited them.  The situation was exacerbated due to earlier sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, two big suppliers in the world.

India’s policy was consistent that it will buy oil from whatever source at affordable rates. And it stuck to its guns over a period of six months or so.

Recently, in a policy about - turn, the US is not objecting to India’s purchase of Russian oil. The shift has come because the US now realizes that it needs India more than India needs the US. Also, US policy makers are of the opinion that the US needs India to counter China if hostilities ever break out and even otherwise. Western sanctions on the other hand have not proved quite effective against Russia as Russia is a major producer of two important commodities which the world needs. Oil and wheat.

Also, the US needs India to back it up economically. The US is promoting what it calls the Indo Pacific Economic Forum. This is an alliance conceived by the US. It includes countries in the southern Pacific Ocean which will balance China on the economic front. Without India this alliance does not amount to much. With India it becomes an excellent counterweight to China. Thus, the US is keen to get India on board in this project.

The US is also talking about friend shoring. This term signifies the US will only source its imports from countries that it considers to be friendly and reliable. This also signifies that the US does not consider China as a reliable partner anymore.

This shifting of businesses will involve tradeoffs, some quid pro quo, as India is also dependent on the US for defense and other critical technology. However, the US giving a free hand to India regarding purchase of oil from Russia signifies the US views the relationship as a long term one. Incidentally India is the only country in Asia which has stood up to the Chinese bullying tactics.

The ongoing G20 Summit is being watched closely by experts as it might give an indication as to where the world may be headed. China, for all its bravado regarding Taiwan may not actually initiate hostilities. The Chinese leadership knows China cannot withstand western sanctions and neither can it counter the American military might. China may act against India, Japan and Vietnam keeping in view its territorial claims.

The Russia Ukraine war has drastically altered the energy and trade flows in the world. Many Indian private producers like Reliance and Nayara have benefitted by exporting refined oil products to Europe and the US.

The geopolitical chessboard is a busy place currently. Moves and counter moves are being played out between nations and world leaders. We are headed for some interesting times.