Sri Lanka: The
Rajapaksa administration took substantial loans from China under the Belt and
Road Initiative, which Sri Lanka struggled to repay. India stepped in with a $2
billion bailout package to help Sri Lanka manage its immediate financial
crisis. Consequently, the Hambantota port was handed over to China due to
unpaid loans. China is often seen as self-serving, while India is perceived as
more considerate towards smaller nations. Chinese spy ships continue to dock in
Sri Lanka however. Sri Lanka finds itself boxed between great power rivalries.
America: Although
not a neighbor, the US plays a significant role in the Asian region. US-India
relations have improved since Modi’s tenure began, despite occasional hiccups.
India maintains an independent foreign policy, especially regarding the US.
Trade and technology transfers, particularly military, are growing. However,
the US has reservations about India’s ‘Strategic Autonomy’ and its stance on
various geopolitical issues. For instance, India’s purchase of Russian oil
during the Russia-Ukraine war displeased the US, which expects India to align
with its policies. This independent stance by India affects US credibility
globally and encourages other nations to act similarly. There are concerns
about American arms left in Afghanistan ending up with terrorists in Kashmir,
raising questions about whether this is accidental or intentional.
Nepal: Nepal has been
under Chinese influence for some time, with China interfering in its affairs
and using money to sway Nepali politics. This influence has led Nepal to adopt
an anti-India stance, raising territorial claims and border issues. Despite
being landlocked and heavily reliant on India for trade, Chinese influence
remains strong. India-Nepal relations have been fluctuating. China, despite its
influence, has not constructively helped Nepal, instead opting to buy influence
as it does in other smaller countries.
Myanmar: Myanmar,
another neighbor of India, has been under military junta rule for the past
decade. The country has a troubled political history, with brief democratic
periods like the election of Aung San Suu Kyi, followed by a return to
autocracy. Historically unstable, Myanmar’s political landscape remains complex
and challenging.
China
The
standoff on the LAC continues, with India insisting on resolving border issues
before normalizing relations, while China wants to separate trade from border
disputes. China harasses countries in the South China Sea, including the
Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Japan, and maintains a presence in the
Indian Ocean Region with spy ships and other assets. Chinese fishing fleets
engage in illegal fishing as far as South America. China aims to unify Taiwan,
but Taiwan remains wary due to China’s actions in Hong Kong. China’s Belt and
Road projects, like the CPEC in Pakistan, are struggling.
Maldives
When
Muizzu came to power in the Maldives two years ago, he was suspected of being
backed by China. His ‘India Out’ campaign backfired as India halted aid and
tourism, hurting the Maldivian economy. Muizzu has since tried to improve
relations with India.
Pakistan
has been a thorn in India’s side since partition, excelling only in fomenting
terrorism. Its economy is in shambles, with a looming balance of payments
crisis, social fabric in tatters, and a ruling elite indifferent to the
people’s plight. The country faces separatist movements and is on the verge of
breaking up. All of India’s neighbors, except Sri Lanka, are now autocracies or
dictatorships, facing internal or external troubles.
America
does not want India to become powerful enough to challenge its hegemony.
Experts believe India will need to take measures for its own security, possibly
engaging the US to convey that opposing Indian interests could be
counterproductive. This dynamics will become clearer after the US elections.
The world order is changing, and countries are jostling for positions which
they think are advantageous. When the dust settles, the world will not be the
same.
