The government of India abrogated Article 370 which granted
special status to Kashmir.
It may not be in the scope of this
article to go into the Kashmir imbroglio. With all its twists and turns and
sequence of events for over seventy years, it will need to be dealt with in a
separate article. Suffice it to say that Kashmir is disputed
territory between India and Pakistan since 1948.
The Kashmir issue was the raison
d’etre of Pakistan. Pakistani, especially its Army, has made it a bone of
contention immediately after both the countries became independent. It is part
of the two nation theory which Pakistan propounded after partition. According
to the theory the Muslims in the subcontinent needed a separate nation of their
own as it was argued that the Hindus and Muslims could not live together in the
then undivided India. Kashmir being a Muslim majority state would naturally
accede to Pakistan after partition or so was assumed by Pakistani leaders. The
dispute sharpened after India liberated East Pakistan(now Bangladesh) in 1971,
after Pakistan carried out genocide on the Bengali people. The
Pakistani army for years has been justifying a disproportionate allocation of
resources from the country’s budget on the basis of a perceived threat from India
over the Kashmir issue. This budget helped the army to turn into a
business institution. The Pakistani army operates companies, farms,
and other industries. Its officers and staff get cuts from the profits
generated by these enterprises.
Now that the Article 370 has been
abrogated, the Pakistan army will find it difficult to maintain their modicum
of importance. The Article gave special status to the state of Jammu and
Kashmir within the Indian union. This special status was added to the Indian
constitution but not made a formal part of it. The Indian law system did not
work in the state. No Indian government institution had any jurisdiction in
J&K. The state had its own rules and regulations. No citizen from the rest
of India could buy property or open a business or make any investments there.
The rule went so far that if a Kashmiri woman married a non Kashmiri she
forfeited her family inheritance. Worse, it provided a fertile ground for
Pakistan to sow dissention among some of the political class in Kashmir as the
Indian government could not implement its laws there. Pakistan used money to
influence these so called separatists. The result was that these few people
became very rich and influential. They also became untouchables as Indian laws
did not apply to them. The special status had become an impediment to
development.
Years of inaction on Kashmir by
India and Kashmir’s special status had given the Pakistan’s
Military/Intelligence establishment the confidence that their strategy of
terror and nuclear blackmail was working. Pakistan should have read the signs
early on when India retaliated for the terror strike on Pathankot Air Force
Base in 2016 by conducting a Special Forces surgical strike across the LoC(Line
of Control). But Pakistan struck again at Pulwama in Kashmir.
Locally executed by Jaish-e-Mohammed, that attack killed about 40 Indian CRPF
soldiers. After this the Indian government acted swiftly. It sent an air strike
against a major terrorist camp in Balakot in Khyber-Pakhtunwa in mainland
Pakistan. This unprecedented retaliation was a huge shock to Pakistan. Most
importantly it snuffed out Pakistan’s nuclear bluff forever.
Pakistan ‘s complacency was
shattered on August 6th 2019 when the abrogation of Article 370
and 35(A) took place in the Parliament. For Pakistan the unthinkable had
happened. It was clueless as to how to react to this
change. Suddenly its perceived locus standi on Kashmir was
completely erased. The usual and now predictable knee
jerk reactions were seen by a disinterested world. Pakistan does not
have any traction in any of the world forums. It is in a catch 22
situation. The Military establishment might be tempted to carry out some kind
of terror operation in Kashmir, but could risk down gradation by the FATF. The
Financial Action Task Force, the world watchdog organization to identify state
sponsored terrorism has put it on enhanced watch list. The Asia Pacific
Group(APG) of the FATF has found that Pakistan is not compliant on thirty two
of the forty points that were to be scrutinized. It has put Pakistan in the APG
grey list. If Pakistan gets downgraded by the FATF in Paris in October, it will
not qualify for any help from any multilateral lending agency, making its
already delicate financial situation even more precarious.
For now
it seems, all roads lead to a conciliation on Kashmir.
However the terror groups also have a history of acting unilaterally. There
could be an instance where one of the groups could perpetrate an attack on
Kashmir without the Pakistan government’s knowledge. This will leave the
Pakistan government in the lurch.
Well, this article cannot be
concluded at this point of time as the Kashmir story is still unfolding. There
has been heavy troop deployment in the valley at this time and a blackout on
all communications has been imposed. Some incidents of stone pelting have been
reported. Rather than speculating it will be prudent to wait. There
will be a part two to this article.
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