US - Russia The Great Game

Not every piece of news is interesting to us.  But for some time now there has been a political storm going on in the US about Russian interference in American elections. This is nothing new. Nations and have been interfering in each other’s internal affairs for centuries. History is replete with such examples.  The only thing that has changed is technology.  In the earlier days  there used to be spies and agents which went into the enemy kingdom and spread disinformation and gathered information. While spies have not become entirely redundant, computers have taken over some of this work. For spreading disinformation or false news or rumors there is social media.  What is being said by the investigators in US is that a systematic campaign was launched by the Russians to sway public opinion in the US probably more than a year ahead of the general elections in the US.  Trump’s victory is attributed partially to this social media campaign. While opinion is divided as to how effective was this campaign, there is no denying  the fact that it was deliberately undertaken and designed to take advantage of the deep penetration of social media in the American cultural fabric. This can be said for all countries today .

In the modern age of instant communication the goal post has shifted in the realm of international relations. Spying and subterfuge in the 20^th century was known as the Great Game. Countries tried to learn each other’s secrets and spread disinformation.  This Russian campaign is nothing but a technological progression of the Great Game.

Our traditional understanding of the concept of a superpower is, it has a strong military, is well endowed with natural resources, is technologically advanced and as a consequence can wield an influence over other nations.  But electronic media has now become the soft underbelly of this otherwise powerful and impregnable nation.  All the military might of the a country can be rendered useless  if an enemy nation can penetrate or control its political and economic lifelines  using electronics and software.  A case in point is the recent Florida school shootout. It was noticed that after  the shooting  American people began to demand laws for gun control. This narrative was taken up quickly by the Twitter handles which were identified by the state authorities as run by Russians. The controllers quickly hijacked the narrative and gave it the direction/color that they wanted. And there are many such social media interventions that gradually with sustained pressure campaigns tend to veer public opinion to the desired point of view. 

Huawei, the Chinese telecom company is facing a problem which has originated from these concerns. This company, like all Chinese private companies, has to tow the line of the communist party. Huawei is suspected of using its technology to spy on client countries. The communication systems that it operates in countries across the world is said to have embedded spyware designed to secretly gather data for use by the Chinese government . This has sparked global concern and many countries are thinking of banning the company from their markets.

Traditionally nations states were concerned with an enemy attacking and destroying their own country using military strength. Not any more. No nation today is keen on taking over another nation politically. It’s a minefield. Physical occupation of the enemy nation is less attractive now. The aim is to use technology combined with blackmail to penetrate the social and economic fabric of the victim country and make it tow your line.

Cyber space is the new battlefield. Military might will be passé. Defense  infrastructure and communications have become increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks. Tanks, warplanes and ships will no longer guarantee the protection of a country.

As far as the balance of power among nations is concerned, size will not matter.  In future the David can beat the Goliath.