Coronavirus II - Fallout

The ongoing corona story seems to have many angles which hitherto have been revealed to the world at large. While containing the epidemic has been the priority of everyone, some seemingly innocuous aspects have been noticed as regards China’s tackling of the disease. China’s conduct has not been exemplary during these trying times. As the disease started spreading, the countries in China’s neighborhood especially in South East Asia started imposing restrictions on Chinese tourists and business travelers. The visitors were screened for infections and even banned from travelling inside their country. China took offence to these measures taken by the countries which were basically just preventive measures. Due to the long incubation period, these countries were justified in taking these precautions. But China threatened to take retaliatory action saying that it has a long memory and will remember this kind of behavior.  In fact China has been greatly worried about its prestige and foreign image and is unnecessarily sensitive about how its citizens are being treated abroad. It is trying to bully smaller countries into towing its own line on how they should conduct themselves in this crisis.  

There is also a political angle to this. In a dictatorial system like in China, everything is done by the government. The government draws its legitimacy from the success of its policies rather than an electoral process, as in a democracy. If the population is well provided for in all respects, everything is fine. However in an emergency situation like the current outbreak, any mishandling will cause a massive political fallout as the people who have been micromanaged in all aspects of their lives suddenly find their infallible leadership making mistakes which affect them adversely. In the current scenario the Communist party of China could be fighting for its own legitimacy.

This existential crisis has made the Chinese Communist Party take offense to any precautionary measures taken by other countries. The Chinese propaganda machine has not slowed down in this crisis. In fact it has got into higher gear. One private conglomerate, namely Tencent, recently published data which showed the number of people infected and those who have died to be vastly higher than what the government authorities have been saying. The company removed that data after some time. Now it has denied publishing any such figures on its site.

The death of the whistle blower doctor Li Wenliang who first messaged his colleagues about the new virus but was accused of spreading rumors, has blown a storm on Chinese social media. There is an out poring of grief for the doctor. People are calling him a hero and are criticizing the government for accusing him, instead of listening to him in those early days when the infection could have been better contained.

The political impact of the virus seems to be worse than the human or economic one for the Chinese government. Some citizens are demanding the right to free speech. Will this grow into an online or even offline movement for more personal freedom? Only time will tell. On the economic front experts say if China can control the epidemic in a month or so the impact could be restricted to a couple of quarters. However if the disease spins out of control, the impact could be more profound. The story is still unfolding and updates keep coming 24/7. There may have to be another part to this story if the number of new infections does not go down soon.