China's Window of Opportunity

 

A very interesting development has taken place regarding the relations between Australia and China.  An article in the Atlantic by Michael Schuman which gives food for thought and is related to this issue, also makes an interesting read.

China recently gave a list of its grievances to Australia. The list includes economic investments made by China, now frozen. Access for Chinese students to Australian universities, Australia’s raising of the issue of the Corona pandemic origins as wells as calling out China on human rights.  In diplomatic parlance this is like an ultimatum. The thing to be noted here is that the list has been given by one sovereign country to another which is rarely done. Even severe differences are not aired through public media like the Chinese have done.  

Australia is member of the Five Eyes group and so could have been targeted by the Chinese as a testing ground for their coercive diplomacy.  Through Australia, China could be testing the resolve of the group as well as the rest of the free world. Target one country and test pressurize it until it relents.  In fact China could also target the Quad in a similar way.  Try to find a weak link in the alliance. This could be a deliberate offensive launched by the Chinese to test waters

The list of grievances so unsubtly leaked is a kind of a diplomatic rap.  Probably even unknowingly China may have given an ultimatum to Australia and in doing so has cast the diplomatic die. After this its relations with Australia are not going to be mended for a long time.

Michael Schuman’s article in the Atlantic titled ‘How Xi Blew it’ dwells on how China has missed the bus to lead the world which Xi Jinping keeps harping on. 

China has military and economic heft to lead the world but no soft power to sustain its leadership. To be a superpower a country needs military and economic heft but more than anything else it needs soft power. For others to follow you willingly you need to project leadership. That only comes with soft power.

Trump's 'America First' policy had given China and Xi Jinping a great opportunity to take over the world leadership. But China lacks one important quality, that of trust. US brands have an instant recall around the world. Apple, Google, McDonalds, Jeep, Walt Disney etc. All of them signify technology, leadership and have been around for years.  China is not there yet. Some Chinese companies were becoming familiar to the world but unfortunately have now come under a cloud of suspicion. They are associated with spying and data theft. Case in point is Huawei.  Stigmas like this have an uncanny way of rubbing on other institutions of the same country and are hard to remove.

In post pandemic times it is going to be extremely difficult for China or President Xi Jinping to alter perceptions about themselves. According to Pew Research, China is viewed negatively by most of the developed world.  China, by causing aggression in the South China Sea and on the border with India has dealt a near fatal blow to its dreams of becoming a world leader. It continues to blatantly flout all norms regarding human rights. It is now obvious that Xi Jinping and the CCP have overreached in their effort to make China a world leader. 

The real road to world leadership goes via peace, persuasion and freedom. China needs to understand this.  China has not done any course correction even after its popularity in world opinion plumetted. Probably it expects the rest of the world to come around to its way of thinking eventually and be accomodated inspite of its wayward and agressive behaviour.

But as the Schuman article says,  the world may compromise with China. The Chinese are not so naive  not to realise the lost opportunity,  With the coming of the Biden administration the window of opportunity is closed and a belated realisation wont help them to open it again.  

Biden - No Big Reset

 

The change of guard at the White House in the USA is usually a momentous occasion. Countries all over the world try to work out where they stand vis-a-vis the incoming government. The US elections have attracted a huge interest all over the world this time as it was fought bitterly till the end, a no holds barred contest.

The Trump administration was something the rest of the world is glad to have seen the back of.  Trump was a disruptor. Not being a career politician, he did not have the diplomatic niceties or the mannerisms of one. He was transactional and unpredictable to boot. In a smaller less important country, he could have been avoided. But he was the US president and so had to be confronted at every juncture. US allies were wary of his policies which gave little consideration for trust and friendship built over the years.

Now that Biden is in the White House US allies have heaved a sigh of relief. A return to normalcy is expected by the world comity of nations. However the Biden administration will have to hit the ground running come January. The pandemic will have to be addressed immediately.  Biden may find his hands tied somewhat when he starts to roll out his plans. On the foreign policy front he has to repair the damage that Trump has done in his four years. The allies will have to be reassured by returning to the old ways. The nuclear agreement with Iran will have to be salvaged. Biden will have to keep up the tough stance on China which he has already mentioned in his various speeches. In fact during the last days of the Obama administration the US was beginning to get tough on China.

Human rights world wide is a pet issue of the Democrats. That will come up in its dealings with China. The US policy on the South China Sea has had bipartisan support.  NATO will be restored to its pre-Trump eminence and QUAD will be consolidated. India also may have to take some flak from the new government on rights issues in Kashmir, the CAA and NRC. All that will come to past. So the reset will not be so drastic. By and large many of the previous administration’s policies will be continued but may be more nuanced. Biden may not be belligerent towards China as Trump but will be firm and more strategic than transactional in his approach.

In a way Biden’s hands are tied by events which have taken place at the international level. Even as he comes into office, he has already announced some of his actions and some can be predicted as being characteristic of the pre-Trump America. Disruptive digressions in policy formulations will not be pursued. US allies and the world has had enough of it.

China and Russia have not yet congratulated the new president elect citing ambiguity in the results, be that as it may, the new administration has its work cut out once it assumes office. Experts say Trump might make some irreversible decisions regarding US foreign policy which the incoming team may find difficult to change or negotiate.  

The Biden team may not have the liberty to go for a big reset. A continuation of the old policies with  subtle changes may be in order here. Given the tumultuous year that the world has experienced so far, this may be good news.