Biden - No Big Reset

 

The change of guard at the White House in the USA is usually a momentous occasion. Countries all over the world try to work out where they stand vis-a-vis the incoming government. The US elections have attracted a huge interest all over the world this time as it was fought bitterly till the end, a no holds barred contest.

The Trump administration was something the rest of the world is glad to have seen the back of.  Trump was a disruptor. Not being a career politician, he did not have the diplomatic niceties or the mannerisms of one. He was transactional and unpredictable to boot. In a smaller less important country, he could have been avoided. But he was the US president and so had to be confronted at every juncture. US allies were wary of his policies which gave little consideration for trust and friendship built over the years.

Now that Biden is in the White House US allies have heaved a sigh of relief. A return to normalcy is expected by the world comity of nations. However the Biden administration will have to hit the ground running come January. The pandemic will have to be addressed immediately.  Biden may find his hands tied somewhat when he starts to roll out his plans. On the foreign policy front he has to repair the damage that Trump has done in his four years. The allies will have to be reassured by returning to the old ways. The nuclear agreement with Iran will have to be salvaged. Biden will have to keep up the tough stance on China which he has already mentioned in his various speeches. In fact during the last days of the Obama administration the US was beginning to get tough on China.

Human rights world wide is a pet issue of the Democrats. That will come up in its dealings with China. The US policy on the South China Sea has had bipartisan support.  NATO will be restored to its pre-Trump eminence and QUAD will be consolidated. India also may have to take some flak from the new government on rights issues in Kashmir, the CAA and NRC. All that will come to past. So the reset will not be so drastic. By and large many of the previous administration’s policies will be continued but may be more nuanced. Biden may not be belligerent towards China as Trump but will be firm and more strategic than transactional in his approach.

In a way Biden’s hands are tied by events which have taken place at the international level. Even as he comes into office, he has already announced some of his actions and some can be predicted as being characteristic of the pre-Trump America. Disruptive digressions in policy formulations will not be pursued. US allies and the world has had enough of it.

China and Russia have not yet congratulated the new president elect citing ambiguity in the results, be that as it may, the new administration has its work cut out once it assumes office. Experts say Trump might make some irreversible decisions regarding US foreign policy which the incoming team may find difficult to change or negotiate.  

The Biden team may not have the liberty to go for a big reset. A continuation of the old policies with  subtle changes may be in order here. Given the tumultuous year that the world has experienced so far, this may be good news.