China's Window of Opportunity

 

A very interesting development has taken place regarding the relations between Australia and China.  An article in the Atlantic by Michael Schuman which gives food for thought and is related to this issue, also makes an interesting read.

China recently gave a list of its grievances to Australia. The list includes economic investments made by China, now frozen. Access for Chinese students to Australian universities, Australia’s raising of the issue of the Corona pandemic origins as wells as calling out China on human rights.  In diplomatic parlance this is like an ultimatum. The thing to be noted here is that the list has been given by one sovereign country to another which is rarely done. Even severe differences are not aired through public media like the Chinese have done.  

Australia is member of the Five Eyes group and so could have been targeted by the Chinese as a testing ground for their coercive diplomacy.  Through Australia, China could be testing the resolve of the group as well as the rest of the free world. Target one country and test pressurize it until it relents.  In fact China could also target the Quad in a similar way.  Try to find a weak link in the alliance. This could be a deliberate offensive launched by the Chinese to test waters

The list of grievances so unsubtly leaked is a kind of a diplomatic rap.  Probably even unknowingly China may have given an ultimatum to Australia and in doing so has cast the diplomatic die. After this its relations with Australia are not going to be mended for a long time.

Michael Schuman’s article in the Atlantic titled ‘How Xi Blew it’ dwells on how China has missed the bus to lead the world which Xi Jinping keeps harping on. 

China has military and economic heft to lead the world but no soft power to sustain its leadership. To be a superpower a country needs military and economic heft but more than anything else it needs soft power. For others to follow you willingly you need to project leadership. That only comes with soft power.

Trump's 'America First' policy had given China and Xi Jinping a great opportunity to take over the world leadership. But China lacks one important quality, that of trust. US brands have an instant recall around the world. Apple, Google, McDonalds, Jeep, Walt Disney etc. All of them signify technology, leadership and have been around for years.  China is not there yet. Some Chinese companies were becoming familiar to the world but unfortunately have now come under a cloud of suspicion. They are associated with spying and data theft. Case in point is Huawei.  Stigmas like this have an uncanny way of rubbing on other institutions of the same country and are hard to remove.

In post pandemic times it is going to be extremely difficult for China or President Xi Jinping to alter perceptions about themselves. According to Pew Research, China is viewed negatively by most of the developed world.  China, by causing aggression in the South China Sea and on the border with India has dealt a near fatal blow to its dreams of becoming a world leader. It continues to blatantly flout all norms regarding human rights. It is now obvious that Xi Jinping and the CCP have overreached in their effort to make China a world leader. 

The real road to world leadership goes via peace, persuasion and freedom. China needs to understand this.  China has not done any course correction even after its popularity in world opinion plumetted. Probably it expects the rest of the world to come around to its way of thinking eventually and be accomodated inspite of its wayward and agressive behaviour.

But as the Schuman article says,  the world may compromise with China. The Chinese are not so naive  not to realise the lost opportunity,  With the coming of the Biden administration the window of opportunity is closed and a belated realisation wont help them to open it again.