Asia in Flux

Since the last two years, global geopolitics has pivoted around the continent of Asia and its fringes. A wide swath from Syria and Iraq in the west to the South China Sea, the entire continent has seen a lot of geopolitical upheavals.

Asia has become the most happening place in international geopolitics. Not surprisingly, all the countries in the continent are touched by this phenomenon. Even the smallest and politically insignificant countries has been affected in one way or the other.

Bhutan and Maldives have not hogged so much limelight in the past. Apart from tourism, these countries have never attracted attention for political reasons. But Maldives and Bhutan, are both victims of China’s Belt and Road projects. Maldives has incurred enormous foreign debt and Bhutan has seen some of its territory claimed and taken over by China. Most of the countries in Asia have been invaded by China using its One Belt One Road Initiative. Under the garb of trade development China has given enormous loans to these small countries.  When the countries were seen to be unable to pay these loans back, China has acquired some asset belonging to the countries as compensation. In this way China seems to be on a take-over spree in Asia.

Though China is responsible for many of these problems, it is not the only country which has caused trouble. The geopolitical dynamics in West Asia have experienced many upheavals lately. These problems go back a long way. Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been constantly in the news. The problems in Iraq and Syria have been closely linked to those in Afghanistan. Since the 9/11 incident, the US has been involved in this region continuously, trying to bring about an elusive peace. Afghanistan and Pakistan have their own dynamics in this.

The US has not been able to bring about any significant change for the better in this region despite sending troops and economic aid for the last two decades. Pakistan looks like it will be an international pariah for some time to come as its economy teeters on the brink of collapse. Its support for terrorists countinues unabated despite being in the Grey list of the FATF. Afghanistan, under the Taliban is faring no better. Kazakhstan has also included itself in this list lately due to its political instability. China’s genocide of Uighurs in the neighbouring Xinjiang province is well known. China is worried about the fallout of the unrest in Kazakhstan.

The South China Sea has seen its share of troubles, mainly due to Chinese aggression and forceful takeover of some disputed islands. The Spratly and Mischief islands taken over by China are also claimed by countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. The Chinese claim on Taiwan cannot be ignored either. China also has a dispute with Japan over the Senkaku islands.

In contrast the continent of Europe and the Americas seem to be having a normal life. Most of the geopolitical action seems to be centered round Asia.  

The problems of Asia are going to stay for the foreseeable future. None of them looks like it will be solved anytime soon. Countries outside the continent are also getting involved. Britain, Germany France, all have sent their naval ships to the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean to show they have interests in the region. The US is already deeply involved in the region as it has had a considerable presence in Asia since the Second World War.

None of the problems listed above are new. They have been around for years. For e.g. the India, China or India, Pakistan border disputes go back to 1947. It will be extremely difficult to predict as to when Asia will sort its troubles. Not for some time at least. Even the most experienced analyst will be hard pressed to even speculate the outcome.

Africa has also felt the heat from Asia. Many African countries have been facing the Chinese debt trap diplomacy. Countries like India and the European Union are trying to blunt Chinese influence in Africa by offering better business terms to these countries. 

The geopolitical pot is boiling in Asia, and it will be an extremely interesting show. There are no spectators here. All are participants, willy-nilly. The powers that be, have already thrown their hat in the ring. The coming decades have been predicted to be Asian, where Asia will be the economic and political pivot. Well, it seems the pivotal times have started for Asia.