It is difficult to predict the course of events when action is happening on the ground. Like the war between Russia and Ukraine. While this war may have started from the aggressive policies of the west and the mistrust of Russia towards anything NATO, we need to look at how the immediate future is going to shape up.
There is no doubt that the west now has the bit between the
teeth and is backing the Ukrainian war effort to the hilt. In the west, a lip
service was being paid to the compulsions faced by Russia.
Russia has always been seen as the enemy of the west and was
never really integrated into the comity of nations even after the fall of the
USSR. The result was that the mistrust between the two sides persisted. The
west with its economic clout never really cared because they did not feel the
need to help the Russians. Technology was and is still monopolized by the west,
especially America.
This war is being watched by all the world and every country
is drawing different conclusions from what is happening on the ground.
American and European aid is now pouring into Ukraine and
Poland. But there are other perspectives on this situation. Sitting in India
the strategic thinkers view this differently. China is elephant in the room.
India is concerned about China trying to do a Ukraine in Taiwan. Also, the
China Pakistan axis has been worrying India for the past decade. The situation in
Afghanistan has been relegated to the backburner since this war started but is
very much relevant for the countries in this region.
India has not criticized Russia for the invasion and has
bought Russian oil. The sanctions imposed by the US on Russia has jeopardized
purchases of Indian arms which is a major concern. India is also concerned that
Quad may not live up to its expectations as the current political stance taken
by her has rankled the other members, especially the US.
Despite China calling Russia its strategic partner, Russia
does not fully trust China. China has a penchant of looking exclusively for its
own interests. The Russians are opening up a trade route along the Arctic
Circle as the Arctic ice thaws. China is eyeing this development and wants to
invest heavily into this infrastructure. Russia has reservations about letting
China increase their presence in this area as China may completely swamp the
infrastructure with their economic clout. Thus, the Russo-Chinese friendship
may be one of convenience rather than trust.
The NATO is not politically united either. Europe buying
most of its energy from Russia is still a sore point with the US. In all this
upheaval, countries are feeling insecure as strategic agreements signed earlier
do not look so dependable now. It is every nation for itself. The US has
sanctioned a $2b budget to help Ukraine. May experts are pointing out that
Putin declaring war on Ukraine has benefitted the arms manufacturers.
The big institutions
like the G7, G10, G20, IMF, World Bank have lost some their importance in the
order of things. To a certain extent so has NATO. China today is the world’s
largest creditor. The dollar itself may not be able to hold on to its Reserve
Currency status as countries look at alternative payments systems to avoid the
diktats of the US. This war comes on the heels of the pandemic which has
imposed unprecedented hardships on the people of the world. Governments across
the world do not want to impose more hardships on their people. Thus, there is
a reluctance to align with the sanctions regime.
As to who will lead the world is the question being asked
all over the world by strategic analysts. The contenders could be the US,
India, China. No other country in the world has been projected as of now. In
Asia, India is best placed to lead the world. China is definitely a contender,
however, its demographics do not favor such a role. Also, China is autocratic
and lacks transparency in the working of its key institutions.
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