Keep to the Golden Mean

 

Since the early and mid-seventies man realized that his progress was coming at a cost. Till then it was not realized that all the scientific and technological progress that was being achieved was coming at a cost. Nature was being harmed irreversibly. But once the scientific community confirmed this, the politicians immediately jumped on this ecological bandwagon and started driving it themselves.

It became necessary to be an environmentalist whether you believed in that sort of a thing. These politicians profited from some of the most polluting industries in the world but kept up a public image which made them champion environmentalists.

The environmental bandwagon has been running since then. Any leader in any corner of the world was forced to support the cause of nature conservation whether he or she believed in it or not.

There was no dearth of activists in the three decades till the start of the new century. Environmental protection was a cause which received world-wide support from the governments and the people. It was the thing to do. But world di not take any drastic steps to curb environmental pollution. This can be understood because it was understood that curbing pollution had a direct bearing on people’s incomes.  

Fast forward to the decade of 2010s onwards. Greta Thunberg a Swedish girl appeared out of nowhere and began to rave about the damage done to the environment by the earlier generations, especially politicians. She was welcomed as if she were a messiah sent to wake up mankind from its slumbers. Naturally, the politicians and the world leaders had to pay attention, and humor her because she gained popularity very quickly.

Her forceful rhetoric and direct approach was new to the people and won her a huge following. Greta began to advise governments and even experts as to how to run their economies. There were sane voices of experts and other people who advised that whatever she was saying was not practical. But their voices were drowned in the noise that was created by Greta Thunberg’s campaigns.

When the people start following a cult the politician and leaders have to follow suit. Greta Thunberg began to call out industries like fracking, the oil industry, thermal plants and demanded that they be shut down to cut down on pollution. Such drastic measures impact adversely directly on the economy of any country. But some political leaders tried to implement them, with disastrous consequences. There were job losses and disinvestment in these industries. These short sighted measures undertaken on the words of a girl touted as a messiah could not be implemented for long.

Today Greta Thunberg is not heard anywhere. The world could not afford her anger.

What the world needs is a gradual shift towards more sustainable exploitation and consumption of resources. Drastic measures will not work without causing disruptions and will only create more problems. The cure cannot be worse than the disease. 

Pelosi Visit – More China Tantrums

 

The recent visit of Nancy Pelosi, the American House Speaker to Taiwan has created storm in a teacup. This is because China, had thrown the hat in the ring by declaring that they will shoot down the delegation. But since then China is in no mood to cross the threshold which it seems to have set for itself. China is rattling the bars around the Air Defense Zone of Taiwan.

The Chinese Navy has surrounded the island and is making threatening gestures by conduction live fire drills which would suggest they are looking at blockading Taiwanese ports. This is easier said than done. China is as much dependent on semiconductor chips made by Taiwan as the rest of the world. Blockading Taiwanese ports will create a shortage of chips globally and could turn world opinion against China. Meanwhile China has banned imports of some agricultural produce and other inconsequential items from Taiwan.

The Chinese threats over the Pelosi visit was a part of the scaremongering which the CCP leadership engaged in hoping the US would be deterred. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping will try for an unprecedented third term as a Premier later this year. With the Chinese economy underperforming badly, and the Zero-Covid policy not delivering, the political leadership had to show something positive to the people. National fervor seemed to be a way out. Belligerence against Taiwan is probably a smokescreen to divert attention from domestic issues.  

Unfortunately the US also had domestic and international compulsions to not give in to the Chinese demands. Canceling the Pelosi visit would have sent a wrong message to the Quad, AUKUS, the Five Eyes and NATO and its Asian allies.

The most important takeaway in this incident is that China overestimated its influence in Asia and the world. Thus, now the Chinese leadership (meaning, mainly the dictator) is now engaged in military brinkmanship and posturing. This was also evident during the Doklam crisis against India when China’s behavior was described by a retired US general as that of a teenager throwing tantrums.

China will not be able to gobble up Taiwan so easily. Experts have cited some reasons for this. The Taiwan Strait is about one hundred miles across. Any invading army crossing this water will be greatly vulnerable to defensive fire. Secondly, the PLA has not fired a shot in anger since 1979, when they fought against Vietnam and came off worse. They are not trained for battle. Thirdly, the PLA is made up of conscripts recruited for a period of two years and are not wholly committed to the defense forces. Their reliability under pressure in a real war is suspect. Last but not the least the reliability of Chinese equipment is not known. The CCP leadership does not have the confidence to commit its forces in any war.

Being a dictatorship, it is difficult to distinguish between the national ego and that of the leadership. The Chinese people have no say in how their country is run. It is the Chinese leadership and mainly Xi Jinping who has lost face in this incident. There can be a possibility of Xi Jinping going to war if the Chinese economic situation worsens and Xi needs to take some extreme step to divert people's attention from the domestic turmoil. 

On the other hand, however many top officials of the CCP are worried that a war with Taiwan may not go down well with the European Union, as many of them have bank accounts in European countries  including Switzerland.  

How this pans out will have to be seen. China does not have many options to recover its lost face. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese leadership gets out of this one.