The recent visit of
Nancy Pelosi, the American House Speaker to Taiwan has created storm in a
teacup. This is because China, had thrown the hat in the ring by declaring that
they will shoot down the delegation. But since then China is in no mood to
cross the threshold which it seems to have set for itself. China is rattling
the bars around the Air Defense Zone of Taiwan.
The Chinese Navy
has surrounded the island and is making threatening gestures by conduction live
fire drills which would suggest they are looking at blockading Taiwanese ports.
This is easier said than done. China is as much dependent on semiconductor
chips made by Taiwan as the rest of the world. Blockading Taiwanese ports will
create a shortage of chips globally and could turn world opinion against China.
Meanwhile China has banned imports of some agricultural produce and other
inconsequential items from Taiwan.
The Chinese threats
over the Pelosi visit was a part of the scaremongering which the CCP leadership
engaged in hoping the US would be deterred. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping will try
for an unprecedented third term as a Premier later this year. With the Chinese
economy underperforming badly, and the Zero-Covid policy not delivering, the
political leadership had to show something positive to the people. National
fervor seemed to be a way out. Belligerence against Taiwan is probably a smokescreen to divert attention from domestic issues.
Unfortunately the
US also had domestic and international compulsions to not give in to the Chinese
demands. Canceling the Pelosi visit would have sent a wrong message to the
Quad, AUKUS, the Five Eyes and NATO and its Asian allies.
The most important
takeaway in this incident is that China overestimated its influence in Asia and
the world. Thus, now the Chinese leadership (meaning, mainly the dictator) is
now engaged in military brinkmanship and posturing. This was also evident
during the Doklam crisis against India when China’s behavior was described by a
retired US general as that of a teenager throwing tantrums.
China will not be
able to gobble up Taiwan so easily. Experts have cited some reasons for this.
The Taiwan Strait is about one hundred miles across. Any invading army crossing
this water will be greatly vulnerable to defensive fire. Secondly, the PLA has
not fired a shot in anger since 1979, when they fought against Vietnam and came
off worse. They are not trained for battle. Thirdly, the PLA is made up of
conscripts recruited for a period of two years and are not wholly committed to
the defense forces. Their reliability under pressure in a real war is suspect.
Last but not the least the reliability of Chinese equipment is not known. The
CCP leadership does not have the confidence to commit its forces in any war.
Being a
dictatorship, it is difficult to distinguish between the national ego and that
of the leadership. The Chinese people have no say in how their country is run.
It is the Chinese leadership and mainly Xi Jinping who has lost face in this
incident. There can be a possibility of Xi Jinping going to war if the Chinese economic situation worsens and Xi needs to take some extreme step to divert people's attention from the domestic turmoil.
On the other hand, however many top officials of the CCP are worried that a war with Taiwan may not go down well with the European Union, as many of them have bank accounts in European countries including Switzerland.
How this pans out will have to be seen. China does not have many options to recover its lost face. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese leadership gets out of this one.
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