Pivot to Asia and Multipolarity

 

The earth’s geography is constantly undergoing change. This change is usually very gradual like erosion. The contours are being modified by forces of nature. After substantial change has occurred, it becomes apparent that all this time change was happening but went unnoticed due to its slow progress.

In the years between the wars, and especially after the Second World War, the geopolitical pivot of the world straddled the Atlantic.  This region had the most important and the richest countries in the world. Whatever they said and decided was accepted without question by the rest of the world.

But in the last decade or so, the pivot has shifted and is now firmly pinned over Asia. Barring the Russia -Ukraine war most of the geopolitical action has taken place either in or around Asia and its fringes.  With the rise of China the economics of the region underwent a change. A huge swath of territory starting from the gulf to the central Pacific is now the focus of attention of all the major powers in the world.

This area now also accounts for more than 50 percent of the world’s economic activity. In fact, India, China and South Asia now account for more than 50 percent of the world’s oil consumption.

The belligerence of China in the last 4 – 5 years has increased the geopolitical importance of the region as well. It drew the attention of the west, especially the US. Now everybody who is somebody wants to keep a vigil on Asia.

India has also started on a quest to make its presence felt in the region. It has increased its naval presence by holding exercises with countries like Australia and implementing the policy of act east which was initiated to increase its outreach to countries in the region. With its act east policy India is trying to build bridges in the region and to counter China’s influence.

India favours a multipolar world. It does not want to see a unipolar or even a bipolar world. India wants a seat at the table in the comity of nations. To this end, India has also started marketing its defence equipment to countries on all continents. From Argentina in South America, to Egypt, Saudi Arabia in the gulf and Philippines, Vietnam and other countries in Asia. It has also sold arms to Armenia in Central Asia.

A traditional arms buyer like India is today marketing fighter jets, guided missiles, smart munitions, drones etc., which makes it a competitor in the arms bazaar. India has also helped countries in the region with its vaccines. India is also a member of the quad which was formed to counter China in the region. India’s multi-pronged approach has not gone down well with China which also aspires to become a regional hegemon. India will have to face much resistance to its foreign policy in the coming years.

India wants to be one of the poles in the multi-polarity that it is seeking in the world. Thus, India’s diplomacy has undergone a marked change.  India is no longer apologetic about its ambitions. Neither does it hesitate in going against the established norms. India bought Russian oil against western sanctions after the start of the Russia – Ukraine war. This was as much a show of confidence as it was of boldness in face of odds. This is now the rule rather than exception. India did not hesitate to buy the S400 systems from Russia. India has also decided to become the voice of the countries of the Global South, in order to make their voice heard at the high table. This is unprecedented. The poor countries will get a chance for the first time to engage with the developed countries in an important forum. 

For a long time analysts have been saying that India has missed the development bus and asking when India will realize its potential. The shift in the geopolitical pivot to Asia might provide India the opportunity to finally realize its potential.

Subversive Games

The Indo Pacific has been increasing in geo-political significance for some time now. The pivot shifted to this region when the US withdrew from Afghanistan and declared that they will now concentrate their energies on Asia and the Indo-pacific.

 Of late, China has been very active in this region. It is trying to gain influence in the region by any means. Most of the island nations like Samoa, Palau, Soloman Islands and others are democracies or at least have some semblance of an elected government.

China is trying all the tactics in the book to subvert the political systems in these small countries. A conducive atmosphere was created for the entry of China in this region by US withdrawal from this area, under the Trump administration. If the US would have been paying enough attention in this region, China would not have found it so easy to get a foot in the door.  This was admitted by President Barak Obama even before Trump.

China is trying to erect a wall around itself for its own security. This country has a border problem with all its neighbors. But instead of being accommodative in their dealings with smaller countries, China has adopted an aggressive posture and isolated itself in the entire region. It has a policy of gradually encroaching upon other country’s territory.

China also has a stated ambition of becoming the regional hegemon. To that end, China acts as the big brother and creates rifts in the social and political systems of countries it deals with. China bribes leaders and politicians with the intention to turn these democracies into authoritarian systems or create chaos from which they can draw political advantage and somehow dominate the country. 

One of the major challengers that China faces in the region is India. Japan and Australia also could spoil China’s show, but India shares a border with China and the two countries have already had skirmishes regarding territorial disputes.

China had a dream run for its economic development. It grew at a rapid pace for almost three decades. Under Deng Xiaoping, China kept a low profile. After Xi Jinping came to power, he took a more aggressive political stance. He started the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to invest in connectivity and development projects across the world. This was an attempt by China to dominate trade and resources in the region.

China has been promoting the authoritarian model of economic development since Xi Jinping came to power. Deng Xiaoping, when he ruled China, had relied on consensus rather than brute force to resolve issues with other countries as well as within the politburo. It worked well for three decades. But Xi Jinping is a dictator. He took all political power in his hands as soon as he came to power, and today he is even more powerful than Mao ever was.

With India, China faces an existential threat. India being a democracy, has become the fastest growing economy in the world, while China seems to be losing steam after a steady growth for three decades. The CCP’s growth model is facing challenges as never before. The communist party showcases and promotes a single religion and single race system which they say helps countries to grow faster.

The Uighur genocide is justified by the CCP as necessary to become a cohesive and united society. But opposed to this, India’s model is multi religious, multiethnic and is diversified. Yet it is proving to be successful. This makes it difficult for China to promote its growth model among less developed countries. The success of the Indian model will put the Chinese model in a crisis. This is now a possibility as the Chinese economy is slowing down and Chinese population is aging fast, putting a damper on China’s ambition to become a regional hegemon, much less dominate the world. Also, today most of the BRI projects have proved to be economically unviable. Moreover, China has not noticed that the world’s most dominant power for last several decades, the United States, is a successful democracy. So is India.

Political subversion is successful if the country undertaking it has the economic clout to back it up. In China’s case it is fast losing that economic clout. Also, most of the countries now know China’s modus operandi. Hence it will be interesting to see whether or not China succeeds in its subversive games.   

Hindu Renaissance

During the last few years, and especially since the Modi government has taken over in India, one can notice that Hinduism has found a new footing in India and in the rest of the world.

The Hindu today is sure of himself negotiating with the world. Moreover, he/she is now unapologetic about his/her origins or roots.

The Indian diaspora has been growing for the last several years around the globe. Now we can see second and third generation Indians in different countries. There is hardly any country where Indians are not living.

Traditionally, Indians have identified themselves with the host population. They adopt the local customs and blend in with the people. Most of the Indian diaspora is well educated too. This is especially so in the advanced economies. Indians living in the US, Europe and other affluent countries contribute to the development of the economy and society.

Affluence bring influence. Indians have now begun to be seen in local politics. In the UK an Indian is holding the highest office of the land. This shows that wherever Indian go, they contribute to the development of the local communities and ultimately the country. This has made them an accepted community in all the lands they have settled.

Since the second-generation Indians are now confident, they have begun to assert themselves in a constructive way. Here, religion is playing an important part in their social and political makeup. Rishi Sunak wears his religion on this sleeve and is bold enough to admit it. Many politicians of Indian origin in the US have been elected to important positions in the state and federal governments. They are administered their oath on the Gita.

The Hindu resurgence is a recent phenomenon. Not that Hindus were not doing it earlier. But since the BJP government came to power Hinduism has definitely got a shot in the arm. The Congress party was never enthusiastic about backing Hinduism in India, leave alone the rest of the world. It is only after PM Modi’s visits abroad, and his meeting the Indian diaspora in different countries, that an impetus was provided to the ‘Hindus’ living abroad. This impetus has manifested itself in Hindus being more visible. The PM has provided more confidence to the diaspora that there is somebody back home who has taken note of their rise and wishes to harness their power and influence in their adopted country to build stronger political and economic ties with their homeland.

The Congress government was always apologetic about Hinduism in India.  All other religions were promoted except Hindu. And this was done under the garb of secularism. The education system was designed in such a way that Hindus could not take pride in their achievements.

Hindu religion was always downplayed. Anybody talking openly about Hindu pride was labelled as an anti-Muslim or anti-Christian and an anti-national.

This changed when the BJP won the elections in 2014. The party manifesto talked about the Ram Temple construction, the abrogation of Article 370, the introduction of Uniform Civil Code among other issues which were completely ignored in the 70+ years of Congress rule.

Today, Hindu nationalism has taken center stage. This is beginning to be noticed the world over. The Indians living in other countries have caught this wind and are more assertive about their origins.

The government has instilled pride and confidence among Indians everywhere. People are now talking and actively promoting Sanatana dharma. Along with Hinduism, nationalism also seems to have taken up the Indian mind space. It is now considered fashionable to talk about achievements of India, be it regarding the economy, the military, space, sports etc.

This change can be called a national renaissance, where religion, politics, scientific progress, business achievements, are being talked about with pride. Even historical biases are being discussed publicly and demands are being made to correct the history. Political parties in India are now open to this revival of Hinduism. It has become an electoral compulsion for them.

BJP’s Hindu centric agenda is mainly responsible for the confidence among the Indians and the Indian diaspora, and this has rubbed off on the people belonging to other religions as well. India’s G20 Presidency has contributed to the concept of 'Vasudaiva Kutumbakam' (One world, one family philosophy). In this strife torn world these concepts which are the basis of Hindu religion have appealed to people across the world.

If the current narratives are taken to their logical conclusion India will be a very different place a few years from now. The time of Hindu renaissance has arrived.

Challanges to Progress

It seems when a country rises, it has to face many challenges. One of the challenges could be that other powers might like to slow down or even halt the progress of the rising nation. India could face situations where it will realise that poltical powers or even domestic vested interests are challenging its rise.

India’s rise has now begun to attract attention. It is now obvious that it is not only the investors and businessmen in Davos who are looking at India. It is also the people who do not find the progress of India palatable in the least. Case in point, the BBC documentary on Prime Minister Modi and the Hindenberg report on the Adani group.

The UK has harboured many criminals who fled there from India after committing financial and other crimes. The UK has not extradited them for decades, even after cases against them have been proven in British courts. This just shows that countries will do what they want as long it is convenient for them, and suits their purpose, and not because it is right. The case in point is that of Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi. There are many others who are given protection by the UK government. It also shows that the UK has scant respect for Indian laws and there was a hidden agenda to rake up human rights issues twenty years after the Indian courts had decided the matter.  A British MP, Bob Blackman has even condemned the BBC report as shoddy journalism.

This American company has announced they are short selling shares of Adani group. The report has put a damper on the Adani follow on issue currently on offer. The latest news is that the Adani issue is fully subscribed, however the company has decided to cancel the issue and return the investor money. Adani stocks have plummeted as result of which about $40 billions of investor wealth has been lost.

The report came out right after India declared itself as a voice of the Global South. It may be overreach if one says that there is a conspiracy against India. But the timing is opportune. Moreover, unconfirmed reports say that one of the employees of NDTV (bought by Adani) visited the New York offices of Hindenberg multiple times. So, there is ground for suspicion. It has been hinted by some in the UK that China funded the BBC report. This also sounds plausible at the outset. 

India’s rise may not be palatable to some nations, indivisuals and grpups around the world. They will never take a public position on this, but their actions will be an indicator of their real intent. Incidents like Shaheen Baug, the articles in New York Times and Washington Post regarding India's human rights and politics are all part of a narrative which is being propagated and funded by people who are running an agenda for a regime change in India. The Indian opposition parties have also joined this bandwagon as they are now out of power for ten years and see themselves becoming politically irrelevant. Being out of power, they are also losing their funding, hence the desperation. The foreigners are white supremacists and are jealous of India's success and do not want India to progress. So there is an element of racism in this as well. 

The so-called Global South has been exploited for their resources by the rich economies for a very long time. China is the latest country to do so. These countries have never had a voice of their own at the high table of elite countries. India’s presidency of the G20 may provide an opportunity to these countries to make themselves heard. Here, China and India are directly competing for influence.  

China has lost economic momentum. It is also facing demographic challenges. Even though it is opening up, the earlier buzz around business and supply chains, is just not there. Whether there is any truth in the funding report is beside the point. India will have to face many such challenges to its leadership role in the world.

The BBC film on Modi reeks of propaganda. It has come twenty years after the Indian courts have decided on the matter. 

Now George Soros the investor and businessman, has entered the fray and criticized Indian democracy. As said earlier India will have to face many such propaganda wars as it rises. The intensity of these attacks will increase as the 2024 general election draw near.  A S.Jaishankar said recently, the election season has not yet started in India, but it has already started in London ad Newyork.

This may not be to the liking of the west. It will mean sharing of resources and even technology which the west is reluctant to do as history will show. Leadership, however, always comes at a price. India will have its work cut out as it threads this geopolitical quagmire.

Luminosity data

A recent study by ISRO of the Nighttime Lights data which is published by NASA and ISRO’s own remote sensing satellites has noticed a 43% increase in luminosity at night in the last eight years. The surprising and encouraging part of the report is that the traditional backward states in the country like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Ladakh, have reported a higher increase in luminosity than the developed states. This data is considered important as it shows growth in infrastructure and increase in economic activity. It shows that the per capita increase in income is significant in the backward states. The conclusion is that the laggard states may be now catching up with the rest of the country.

The reliability of the data can be seen from the dip in luminosity around 2020 due to lockdowns. Thus, this data can be relied upon to judge the progress of countries or regions where data on the ground is not available or is unreliable. This data shows that India has seen significant change in the last 8 – 9 years on the economic front, and all that the government has been saying about development and progress and its schemes like the Ujala, the construction of roads and highways, the distribution of electricity seem to be delivering on their promises, which is a big positive.