Pivot to Asia and Multipolarity

 

The earth’s geography is constantly undergoing change. This change is usually very gradual like erosion. The contours are being modified by forces of nature. After substantial change has occurred, it becomes apparent that all this time change was happening but went unnoticed due to its slow progress.

In the years between the wars, and especially after the Second World War, the geopolitical pivot of the world straddled the Atlantic.  This region had the most important and the richest countries in the world. Whatever they said and decided was accepted without question by the rest of the world.

But in the last decade or so, the pivot has shifted and is now firmly pinned over Asia. Barring the Russia -Ukraine war most of the geopolitical action has taken place either in or around Asia and its fringes.  With the rise of China the economics of the region underwent a change. A huge swath of territory starting from the gulf to the central Pacific is now the focus of attention of all the major powers in the world.

This area now also accounts for more than 50 percent of the world’s economic activity. In fact, India, China and South Asia now account for more than 50 percent of the world’s oil consumption.

The belligerence of China in the last 4 – 5 years has increased the geopolitical importance of the region as well. It drew the attention of the west, especially the US. Now everybody who is somebody wants to keep a vigil on Asia.

India has also started on a quest to make its presence felt in the region. It has increased its naval presence by holding exercises with countries like Australia and implementing the policy of act east which was initiated to increase its outreach to countries in the region. With its act east policy India is trying to build bridges in the region and to counter China’s influence.

India favours a multipolar world. It does not want to see a unipolar or even a bipolar world. India wants a seat at the table in the comity of nations. To this end, India has also started marketing its defence equipment to countries on all continents. From Argentina in South America, to Egypt, Saudi Arabia in the gulf and Philippines, Vietnam and other countries in Asia. It has also sold arms to Armenia in Central Asia.

A traditional arms buyer like India is today marketing fighter jets, guided missiles, smart munitions, drones etc., which makes it a competitor in the arms bazaar. India has also helped countries in the region with its vaccines. India is also a member of the quad which was formed to counter China in the region. India’s multi-pronged approach has not gone down well with China which also aspires to become a regional hegemon. India will have to face much resistance to its foreign policy in the coming years.

India wants to be one of the poles in the multi-polarity that it is seeking in the world. Thus, India’s diplomacy has undergone a marked change.  India is no longer apologetic about its ambitions. Neither does it hesitate in going against the established norms. India bought Russian oil against western sanctions after the start of the Russia – Ukraine war. This was as much a show of confidence as it was of boldness in face of odds. This is now the rule rather than exception. India did not hesitate to buy the S400 systems from Russia. India has also decided to become the voice of the countries of the Global South, in order to make their voice heard at the high table. This is unprecedented. The poor countries will get a chance for the first time to engage with the developed countries in an important forum. 

For a long time analysts have been saying that India has missed the development bus and asking when India will realize its potential. The shift in the geopolitical pivot to Asia might provide India the opportunity to finally realize its potential.