Subversive Games

The Indo Pacific has been increasing in geo-political significance for some time now. The pivot shifted to this region when the US withdrew from Afghanistan and declared that they will now concentrate their energies on Asia and the Indo-pacific.

 Of late, China has been very active in this region. It is trying to gain influence in the region by any means. Most of the island nations like Samoa, Palau, Soloman Islands and others are democracies or at least have some semblance of an elected government.

China is trying all the tactics in the book to subvert the political systems in these small countries. A conducive atmosphere was created for the entry of China in this region by US withdrawal from this area, under the Trump administration. If the US would have been paying enough attention in this region, China would not have found it so easy to get a foot in the door.  This was admitted by President Barak Obama even before Trump.

China is trying to erect a wall around itself for its own security. This country has a border problem with all its neighbors. But instead of being accommodative in their dealings with smaller countries, China has adopted an aggressive posture and isolated itself in the entire region. It has a policy of gradually encroaching upon other country’s territory.

China also has a stated ambition of becoming the regional hegemon. To that end, China acts as the big brother and creates rifts in the social and political systems of countries it deals with. China bribes leaders and politicians with the intention to turn these democracies into authoritarian systems or create chaos from which they can draw political advantage and somehow dominate the country. 

One of the major challengers that China faces in the region is India. Japan and Australia also could spoil China’s show, but India shares a border with China and the two countries have already had skirmishes regarding territorial disputes.

China had a dream run for its economic development. It grew at a rapid pace for almost three decades. Under Deng Xiaoping, China kept a low profile. After Xi Jinping came to power, he took a more aggressive political stance. He started the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to invest in connectivity and development projects across the world. This was an attempt by China to dominate trade and resources in the region.

China has been promoting the authoritarian model of economic development since Xi Jinping came to power. Deng Xiaoping, when he ruled China, had relied on consensus rather than brute force to resolve issues with other countries as well as within the politburo. It worked well for three decades. But Xi Jinping is a dictator. He took all political power in his hands as soon as he came to power, and today he is even more powerful than Mao ever was.

With India, China faces an existential threat. India being a democracy, has become the fastest growing economy in the world, while China seems to be losing steam after a steady growth for three decades. The CCP’s growth model is facing challenges as never before. The communist party showcases and promotes a single religion and single race system which they say helps countries to grow faster.

The Uighur genocide is justified by the CCP as necessary to become a cohesive and united society. But opposed to this, India’s model is multi religious, multiethnic and is diversified. Yet it is proving to be successful. This makes it difficult for China to promote its growth model among less developed countries. The success of the Indian model will put the Chinese model in a crisis. This is now a possibility as the Chinese economy is slowing down and Chinese population is aging fast, putting a damper on China’s ambition to become a regional hegemon, much less dominate the world. Also, today most of the BRI projects have proved to be economically unviable. Moreover, China has not noticed that the world’s most dominant power for last several decades, the United States, is a successful democracy. So is India.

Political subversion is successful if the country undertaking it has the economic clout to back it up. In China’s case it is fast losing that economic clout. Also, most of the countries now know China’s modus operandi. Hence it will be interesting to see whether or not China succeeds in its subversive games.