National Interest and the War

 

It has been a year since the Russia Ukraine war started. The world just took cognizance of the fact that the two countries have been fighting for a year now.

There have been some efforts to bring peace to the beleaguered people. Especially those of Ukraine who have lost their homes, livelihoods and some their lives.

Yet after one year nobody seems to have any clue as to where this war is heading, or when it will end. Like all wars it was shocking when it started. After a few months of watching the horrible scenes unfolding on the tv screens the world got used to it. Now the war seems banal, boring even.

It is true that modern wars cannot be won or lost. But you can gain profits out of them while they last. Every nation seems to have its own point of view on the Russia Ukraine war. The Europeans seem to despise Russia and Putin for attacking Ukraine and destroying its sovereignty. Yet it is also quite obvious that it was NATO which was bent upon bringing in all the countries east of Russia in its fold. Russia had given a fair warning that it does not want to seen Ukraine going inro the NATO fold and it does not want to see American troops and missiles on its borders.

This warning was completely ignored by the US. Thus, today Europe finds itself on the threshold of a conflict it never wanted but did not have the wherewithal to resist American pressure to push NATO eastwards.   

Whatever the antecedents of this war, it can be said that with all its obsession with security Europeans never expected Russia to go to war over the issue. But Russia has indeed, and Europe is all the more shocked for it.

However, now that the shoch has worn off, nations have begun to analyze the situation. Efforts are being made to bring Russia and Ukraine to the table. Some of the results of the efforts are surprising to say the least. It seems the world order is indeed changing for better or for worse.

Many emerging economies are not ready to tow the western line on this war. The west wants India to condemn Russia for its aggression on Ukraine, but India has not obliged. India and China continue to buy Russian discounted oil.  This has bolstered the Russian economy and helped its war effort. Europe has weaned itself away from consuming Russia oil. The EU has put an embargo on Russian oil and want other countries to remove it from their basket. But countries like India and China have shown the spine to stand up to western pressure.

The west is frustrated as it is not able squeeze the Russian economy despite many sanctions. Part of the reason is Russia is rich in energy and wheat. In a geopolitical twist refined Russian oil is finding its way to Europe and America.

One year after the war it is now obvious that each country is engaged in serving its own national interest. America and Europe want Ukraine to win against Russia. They are selling arms to Ukraine which is extremely profitable for their arms manufacturers. It has created a lot of jobs as well, especially needed after the lockdowns.

India and China are buying Russian oil in large quantities as it comes at a discounted rate. This has helped India to control the inflationary pressures which were felt immediately after the war. One year into the war, it seems the countries of the world are paying just lip service to the plight of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are supposed to fight for their freedom with western arms. Nobody is bothering to say how many millions will be killed before the war ends. The west is not ready to compromise on their agenda. They want Russia to lose no matter. Russia has no say in this. They have to be defeated.  It is now business as usual under the shadow of the war.  Americans and Europeans are also buying refined Russian oil from India and China.

As history tells us, as time goes by, this war will become a side show.  Tales of horror will continue to be reported from the frontline. Peace efforts will continue and so will business.