The Maldives Issue

 The current spat with Maldives is an excellent example of how geopolitics works and how disputes are triggered because of external influences.

It is no secret that the Chinese have made their intentions clears. They plan to surround India with their ‘string of pearls’. The Belt and Road project aims to create a string of military and civilian ports around India to contain its geopolitical influence. It is believed that the current Maldives dispensation under Mohammed Muizzu is under the Chinese thumb. It is alleged that his party’s election campaign was funded by China. China wants to create its influence in India’s backyard, the IOR.

The current spat between India and Maldives is believed to the result of Chinese interference in Maldives internal politics. Muizzu was mentored by former president Abdullah Yameen who was also under Chinese influence and an anti-India hawk.

Muizzu has gone a step further. His campaign was based on keeping India out of Maldives. This defies logical explanation, as India has till now helped Maldives considerably. Military hardware like rescue helicopters, Dornier aircraft, motorized boats for the coast Guard were provided over the years. India also provides medicines, foodstuffs and other essentials. Maldivians come to India for medical treatment and education in considerable numbers. To jeopardize this relationship seems like shooting oneself in the foot. Experts say this is what Maldives has done.

The current issue cropped up when PM Modi visited Lakshadweep and encouraged Indians to consider Indian holiday destinations. This visit itself was triggered by Muizzu's anti India stance. Three Maldivian ministers made derogatory comments on PM Modi’s tour. This has now triggered a backlash from Indian people and celebrities who are calling out to boycott Maldives as a holiday destination. Indians make up about 10 – 15% of the total tourists visiting Maldives in a year. There have been a spate of cancellations of hotel and flight seat bookings as a result of the remarks made by the three ministers.

Ease My Trip, a major online travel booking company has announced it is not accepting any flight bookings for Maldives. Maldives will incur considerable financial losses if these cancellations go through, and there will be more to follow.   

Maldives is a pawn in big power games being played out in the Indian Ocean Region. Powers like the USA, China, some European countries have tried to influence Maldives in the past.

Israel has also jumped into this spat as India was called a puppet of Israel by one of the Maldivian ministers. Israel will start a project for desalination of seawater in Lakshadweep.

After seeing the negative impact of this diplomatic tussle, some opposition Maldivian ministers and the travel agent's association are calling out for tendering an apology to India. The local people, businesses and travel agencies are going to suffer in this diplomatic dispute, and the Maldivian government will bear the brunt of the impact in the days to come.

India’s influence in its neighborhood is now very clear. China may find out that its string of pearls to surround India may not be all that easy to create.

One more aspect to this incident has not garnered the attention it should have. The people of India are punishing Maldives. The government has stayed in the background. Infact the government of India has not made any significant comment at all in this episode. For China this is an eye opener. It is now clear that the Indian people by themselves are a formidable force. A boycott movement against China can hurt China very seriously. Pakistan is also suspected to be involved in Maldives to aid fundamentalists. Sino-Wahabism is what China and Pakistan maybe promoting. Incidently in proportion to its population Maldives has sent the highest number of volunteers to ISIS.

There are now unconfirmed reports that the Maldivian president is now seeking to come to India for obvious reasons. There are also rumors that perhaps there will be a no-confidence motion brought against the Muizzu government.

As spats go, this will not last long. Both countries need each other for different reasons, and they are important. India will not let Maldives slide into China’s hands, because of its geostrategic importance and Maldives needs India for its survival. Food, medicines, military and police hardware among other things. China has given loans to Maldives and Maldives is now indebted to China to the tune of 15% of its GDP. Both India and China will try to curtail each other’s influence in Maldives. This geopolitical tug-of war will continue for some time.