Chinese Politics - The Achilles Heel

The Hong Kong protests over the Extradition Bill have been going on for more than two months now and do not show any signs of abating. The people are aware that if they allow the draconian rules of the Chinese communist Party to be implemented on the Hong Kong people, the rules will gradually be tweaked and made more rigorous until Hong Kong completely loses its autonomous status. The people seemingly have seen through this game plan of the Chinese government.  This salami slicing tactic has been used by the Chinese in other situations to gain an upper hand in matters that affect China.

Just as Hong Kong,  Chinese persecution is also amply evident in the western Xinjiang province. Here the population is mainly Uighur Muslims of Turkish descent. China is systematically carrying out a program in which the Muslims are put into ‘re-education camps’ to make them ‘better citizens’. The Chinese government does not believe in having diversity in its population regarding religion or beliefs. Diversity always creates a sense of identity among different communities. This province has long been a hotbed of discord between the authorities and the ethnic people. Anti-China sentiments have found voice here. Chinese authorities accuse the Uighurs of terrorism. The re-education here means the detained people have to renounce their faith, criticize it, learn Mandarin etc. The Muslims have faced a steady persecution and their religious freedom has all but vanished of late. 

China enjoyed three decades of unbroken economic growth on the back of reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping. But during the last few years the world demand for its products has reduced amid a general global economic slowdown. This has badly affected Chinese exports and thus the economy.  Chinese laborers are losing jobs which has created some unrest among the people. The trade war with the USA could not have come at a worse time. China is facing headwinds on all fronts.  Their companies  are losing business on charges of unfair business practices and spying for the Chinese government.  Case in point, Huawei the Chinese telecom giant is being banned from participating in telecom projects in many countries.  

Matters may not come to a  head just yet, but it is clear that China is not going to find the going so easy in the future.  There is also a chance that the massive protests that erupted in Hong Kong may find resonance elsewhere in China. The logical progression of this movement if not handled tactfully, could be worse. Hong Kong could ask for complete independence. 

The President of China is a dictator for life. It is said, only Mao Zedong enjoyed the power that President Xi Jinping has concentrated in himself. This concentration skews the political system and destabilizes it. History has shown that too much concentration of political power makes the system inherently weak. The old adage ‘absolute power corrupts absolutely’ could be applicable here.

How this story will play out is anybody’s guess.  China’s deficit is said to be more than 230% of its GDP. It was predicted that the Chinese economy will collapse under this huge debt. But the authorities have managed to keep the economy from sliding down.  The predicted hard landing has not materialized  yet, much to the chagrin of economic soothsayers. The growth rate has slowed, but not to the extent where the people feel the pinch.  China enjoyed continuous economic growth for three decades therefore the current working population has never experienced a slowdown. The government will find it hard to shield the people from this shock. 

Being in a single party dictatorship, the Chinese people do not have the option to electorally throw out a non performing government and vote  in a new one.  Protesting is not an option as the Communist Party does not allow that freedom either. This creates a potent situation for a revolution. The only option for the people is to overthrow the government physically.  Built in resilience allows a democratic system  to hold elections, change the leadership and continue.  No dictatorship allows for this. This is the real Achilles heel. There is no safety valve  to vent people’s angst and frustrations.  If push comes to shove and the balloon goes up, China will need a more robust political system to tide it over the crisis.