Electric Cars - The Real Future?

The recent (2019) announcement by the government about introducing electric vehicles in India on a war footing brings certain questions to the fore. The government has stipulated that all two-wheelers up to 150cc displacement will be made electric by 2025. This constitutes 90% of the two wheeler market. The announcement has resulted in a political thug-a-lug between the government and the industry. The government has set some ambitious targets to tackle greenhouse gases and pollution in general especially after signing the Paris Climate Accord. The manufacturers meanwhile are critical of the government for setting unrealistic targets for the industry. While both have their own compulsions regarding this issue and both have valid reasons for taking their respective stands on this matter, some independent analysis would help in better understanding of the issues at hand.

Electric vehicles do not yet tick all the boxes.  There have been some impressive breakthroughs in this technology. The use of rare earth minerals has singularly been responsible for the current advances in electric propulsion technology.  Storage was a big obstacle in use of electric vehicles. The use of Lithium Ion for e.g. has led the industry to believe that perhaps this technology has the potential to take electric transportation to the next level.

However encouraging the progress, there is no dearth of skeptics willing to point out that the picture is not as rosy as it looks.  In India the auto industry has pointed out that even if current two-wheelers are replaced by electric ones there is hardly any infrastructure in place to cater to this kind of conversion. Charging stations are virtually non-existent in India. Critics have pointed out that rural electrification has still not been completed in India. And even if basic infrastructure has reached the remote areas, there is still a severe shortage of supply. The domestic demand has not been fully met. It is inevitable that frequent electricity supply cuts will affect the acceptance of this technology.

The skeptics have gone a step further. They say that the current technology cannot be called truly clean. Disposing off the spent batteries without polluting the environment is going to be a major challenge. There is no data available about chemical degradation regarding the new technology. Given the charging times and the distance covered per charge, it is inevitable that some kind of battery exchange system will have to be put in place. A vehicle going from A to C may need to charge at point B. The driver could opt for a charged battery from the station in exchange for the discharged one.  This means that the number of batteries will have to be many times more than the number of vehicles on the road.  In the absence of proper disposal methods, we will simply be opting for a new form of pollution in exchange for the old one. The technology is in its infancy. It has to mature and prove itself before the government can commit to it.

The cost of these vehicles is still prohibitively high. In India, Hyundai recently launched an electric car, the  Kona, with a price tag of 25 lac Rupees. A petrol car of comparable size can be had for around 10 lacs.  The argument goes that once mass production starts, the economies of scale will bring down the price. This may not actually happen say the critics. The rare earth materials which are used in these vehicles are not found in extractable concentrations, making them expensive to mine. Countries have already identified the world reserves for these materials and new sources are being looked for. The industry is also looking for less expensive alternatives.

It is predicted that the current electric technology will remain expensive as compared to fossil fuels. Rare earth minerals may not deliver on the promise they have held forth. The time scale given by the Indian government is simply not practical when one considers that all the big manufacturers will have to change their in-house production techniques. New training will have to be imparted. Downstream conversion (suppliers) be given time to consolidate. This cannot be rushed.

One more hurdle particularly in case of India stems from low vehicle penetration. There are about 30 vehicles per 1000 people according to a 2015 report by Earnest & Young. That means roughly 3% of the population owns a vehicle of any kind. Countries in Western Europe have a penetration of 700 -800 vehicles per 1000 individuals. The potential in the Indian market is huge. However, even with such low penetration the traffic congestion in our cities is getting difficult, to say the least. If more people are to buy cars in the future, this can only get worse. That electric vehicles will be less polluting is besides the point. Our cities simply cannot accommodate more cars than what we find on the road today. The answer may not be personal transportation but an efficient public transport system.      

While it is not the aim of this article to sound pessimistic about the new technology, it is definitely to make the reader aware of the issues involved. We need to be aware of all the advantages the new technology offers, as also try to anticipate the challenges it will present.  India, meaning the government, the industry and the general public will do well to weigh all the pros and cons before putting the charging cord into the socket.