Afghanistan – A fluid Geopolitical Chessboard

 The withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan has opened a Pandora’s box in this part of the world and soon the creepy crawlies may spread in other parts of the world. The process may have already started.

It would not have made any difference if America had remained in Afghanistan for a few more years. As long as the US was there, the Taliban and other terrorist factions would have kept a low profile for fear of US reprisals. Albeit, under Pakistan’s protection. But now that the US is gone, the Taliban consider themselves free to rule Afghanistan.

The Taliban for all its ideology is not a homogenous organization. It has the ISIS, the Haqqanis, the TTP, etc. Moreover, it has some links with the LeT and the JeM which are predominantly Pakistani networks instituted and backed by the ISI. It is said by experts that the Taliban’s ideology is all about power and not about religion. But it is expected that dilution of the ideology will create factions like the ISIS Khorasan which will pursue a more fundamental version of Islam.

We have to see what the Chinese are after in this scenario. The CCP in China as a matter of policy has the objective of uprooting Islam from China. This Sinification of Islam is being carried out systematically since Xi Jinping took over as the supreme leader. The CCP is concerned that the Taliban could harbor the ETIM (East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement) which has started fomenting trouble in the Xinjiang province against Chinese persecution of Muslims.

Also, with the CPEC not making any progress in Pakistan, the Chinese are now viewing Afghanistan as the new ground for development of their Belt and Road Project. All this will need stability which as yet has proved elusive. Whether or not the Taliban are able to reign in their various factions, remains to be seen. The ISIS Khorasan has already shown they will not follow the Taliban dictates. Whether ETIM does the same, only time will tell.

A big contradiction here is that Taliban has said that China – despite the cultural genocide of Muslims - is their best friend. This can only mean that China will provide monetary aid to the Taliban and particularly its leadership. China will also invest in Afghanistan. It has already signed a MoU with the Taliban to exploit a copper mine.   

Pakistan is also playing its own game in this imbroglio. The political establishment in Pakistan revels in the fact that the US has left. Pakistan wants to control the Taliban as much as they can. and get them to do Pakistan’s bidding.  

Already, there is a rumour of ’Panjshir for Kashmir’. Pakistan will help the Taliban capture Panjshir from Amrullah Saleh, and in return Talban will deliver Kashmir to Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the US has finally woken up to the fact that Pakistan was playing a double game with them all through their occupation of Afghanistan. How the US will punish the Pakistanis remains to be seen. But Pakistan may now face US ire.

One small piece of news is intriguing in all this clutter. There is talk of Afghanistan being divided on the ground of religious factions. Some of the Northern provinces dominated by the Tajiks could separate themselves from the Pashtuns who are in the South.

Another opinion which has hardly been voiced by any of the analysts is that the US left Afghanistan to concentrate on a rising China, but also have now cut its losses. After spending two trillion dollars, the US left the Afghanistan mess for its neighbours. Iran, China, Russia, the CIS countries, all had benefitted from US occupation of Afghanistan. The region was secure for the last twenty years and America was spending for it. But now this mess will be inherited by the all the countries who share a border with Afghanistan. Suddently the spectre of terrorism has raised its head for Afghanistan's immediate neighbours.  

This is how the geopolitical chessboard looks like in the aftermath of the US departure from Afghanistan. It will be a hazardous task to predict an outcome of this game. However, there could be a spillover of the unrest in Afghanistan to areas like Kashmir, Xinjiang, and even Russia. Of course, Europe, the US and the rest of the world are no less vulnerable. The terror graph could see a spike in the days to come.