AUKUS - A Shift of focus

At the eve of the pullout of US troops from Afghanistan some US leaders had said that this was done partly to stem the war fatigue of twenty years, and get the boys back home. Also, one of the reasons was that America will be better able to allocate resources to the Indo-Pacific in view of the threat posed by the Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

 It was getting quite obvious that the US was not making any headway in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s complicity was neutralizing the effectiveness of America’s war on terror. Meanwhile the first decade of the new century saw the rise of an aggressive China. America now felt it could get mired in Afghanistan when it needs to focus its attention in South Asia. 

The AUKUS is ample proof for the US Afghanistan is to be a side show, to be closely monitored. The focus has now shifted to South Asia and particularly China.

The Obama administration was more accommodating of Chinese demands and gave ground especially in the South China Sea. The Chinese took advantage and built their bases in the Spratly and Paracel islands. However, when Trump came to power things changed and the Chinese began to face headwinds to their geopolitical ambitions.

They were denied technology due to their intellectual property theft and companies like Huawei were banned by many countries from participating their tenders.

AUKUS oddly as it is named, (Australia, United Kingdom, US) is completely focused on China and the Indo-Pacific. America wants to stay as the preeminent power in the world for the foreseeable future. The only way it can do this is by countering China. And AUKUS will do just that.

The older alliances like Five Eyes, ANZAC, ANZUS, NATO would not have helped. The EU has been reluctant to act against China for obvious reasons. Trade and commerce not being the least of them. Europe has vested interests in China which cannot be wished away. Canada and New Zealand are also not willing to take on China with full commitment as that would be contrary to their national interests.

Australia is a signatory to the NPT and has eschewed nuclear power. The US will however give nuclear powered submarines to Australia, not nuclear armed. This is the difference. This means the NPT is not so sacrosanct anymore. US national interest has thrown the treaty out of the door. Countries like India can now acquire nuclear technology denied to them earlier. 

Moreover, post Brexit, the UK has no obligations towards the European Union. It can now formulate its own foreign policy. That is why it has signed on as a partner.  

China wants to punish Australia for demanding an investigation into the possible Corona virus origin in Wuhan city and for cancelling some proposed Chinese projects in Australia which were unviable.  Australia has an ongoing trade dispute with China which started after the Australia made its demand for the investigations. The nuclear submarine deal means that Australia has now burnt its ropes vis a vis China. China has also declared that it will now target Australia with nuclear weapons.   

Australia has been a very reliable partner for the US for a long time since the cold war times. So much so that Australia did not hesitate to cancel a submarine contract with France worth thirty billion dollars as the US offered it nuclear submarines. Tactically, as well as strategically, the Australian nuclear submarines, when deployed, are going to be an additional headache for China. They will bolster Australian power in the Indo Pacific and as a consequence, US power indirectly.  

What about the Quad? The Quad will exist side by side with the AUKUS. The Quad it seems, has a wider objective. Besides the military aspect, it also has a economic side. Low-cost vaccine doses have already been distributed to some of the countries in South East Asian countries under the Covax agreement. Also, India will be manufacturing the Johnson and Johnson vaccine which will be given to these countries by 2022. Supply chain diversification will be pursued to reduce over-dependence on China with other allies in the Indo-Pacific. 

China as a matter of policy provokes countries to see how far they can be pushed. The clash in Galwan was a result of the provocation going too far, which was a miscalculation by the local Chinese commanders. China follows the same line against Taiwan. Will the AUKUS come to the aid of Taiwan if push comes to shove? 

The Chinese belligerence could be stemming from failures at home. The slowing economy, the isolation, the calls for investigating the role of China in starting the pandemic. The AUKUS, as the Quad, will have to prepare themselves for a full spectrum conflict even if it is limited on the ground. By this I mean the space and cyber dimensions. 

 

The AUKUS is more focused on the military aspect of the problem stemming from Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Its effectiveness will depend on how committed the members are.