International Relations at Work

 

It is interesting to note how international politics, or for that matter any politics, works on perceptions.

The Russia Ukraine war has upset a lot of equations, in the west and east. Russia has been the traditional enemy of the west since the end of WWII. Even after its fall, the west continued to view its actions with mistrust. As Russian power decreased there was a predictable approach by NATO to countries which were formerly under the Warsaw Pact with an offer of membership.

Ukraine was prominent among them. Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belorussia, and all of the Central Asian states came under the influence of the west. These newly liberated states wanted investments to sustain their economies. Russia could not do that and so began to lose influence over these states.

The US took advantage of the situation and began to add these newly liberated states (mostly European) into the NATO fold. When eventually they reached Ukraine, Russia put its foot down.

This is a game of perceptions. India is now an emerging player in this balance of power equation. But for India the main reason to join groups like the quad is to counter China. For India, Russia is a friend, but China needs to be deterred. For the other members of the quad Russia also needs watching.

That India views Russia and China differently is obvious from the fact that India abstained from voting in the UNSC against Russia on the resolution on Russia’s annexation of some of Ukraine’s provinces, but, helped to thwart Chinese resolution against the AUKUS regarding breach of the NPT in the IAEA. 

If America wanted to check China, it could have weaned Russia away from China. American actions against Russia have forced it to side with China. The Russo-Chinese relationship is nothing to write home about. China wants Russian resources like oil and other minerals in the Russian far-east. China ultimately wishes to annex this region by flooding it with their own people and changing its demographics.

It is in India’s strategic interest to not let Russia go under the boot heels of China. Probably, India is also eyeing the Russian resources in the Arctic region. There have been talks regarding India investing in this region and having a permanent presence here.

Thus, every power, small or big, is vying to achieve its own strategic ends in this region. There are some convergences among perceived enemies and some divergences among friends. 

The Armenia Azerbaijan conflict has also shown how nations maneuver for advantages. Turkey was interfering in the Kashmir issue at Pakistan's behest. India has responded by bringing out the issue of Cyprus which is a burning issue between Turkey and Greece. Turkey and Pakistan have also funded internal Islamic dissidents in India, namely the PFI and earlier the SIMI. Turkey is helping Azerbaijan in this conflict.  Thus, India thinks it is justified in supplying arms to Armenia to counter Turkey in Central Asia. It has been noticed that whatever happens in this region has a direct bearing on India's security. 

This is how international politics works. The power play among nations and the maneuvering for advantage is evident here. The outcome is anybody’s guess. But experts say that China is now viewed as a declining power economically, and demographically, and may see its window of opportunity closing fast. If that is indeed the case, Chinese leadership may throw caution to the winds and act against Taiwan.

The way matters are headed, a clash between the USA and China cannot be ruled out in the near future. A student of international relations would be interested in learning how the other powers loose or gain from this rivalry.