New World Order – Emerging Contours

There has been a marked shift in the way nations are looking at their relations with other nations. The Russia -Ukraine war has now dragged into its eight month and the world has suffered because of it. Shortages of food, oil, gas have pushed up inflation and brought misery to millions, especially those living in poor countries. 

In my earlier article on the emerging world order, I said that it would be difficult to predict anything. While the situation has not changed much, some trends can be noticed through the geopolitical fog. 

As the war drags on and more difficulties emerge in dealing with the upheavals in geopolitics, countries are shedding their initial policies and posturing and are trying to stem the rising turmoil.

Europe has seen political winds of change. The Italian elections have thrown up a right-wing government which is friendly to Russia. Now, news is that Russia could restore gas supplies to Italy. The war and it’s disruptions in supplies, has also prompted protests in France demanding that France should leave NATO. Putin wanted to drive a wedge between NATO countries in order to have better bargaining power. He was trying to wean Germany away from NATO by cutting off its gas supplies, but it could be France instead. Putin may succeed, which means the US will see its bargaining power with Russia considerably reduced and a big strategic blow to NATO.

Despite the sanctions, Russia will not be a pushover. All the sanctions imposed till now have weakened Russia, but not crippled it. Its ability to wage war has diminished but it is still a force to reckon with. Also, Iran has stepped in to supply Russia with drones and other material. This is one pawn in the game whose move was not predicted.

The countries in the middle east, who were traditionally pro west, also seem to be taking a different path. The OPEC+ group which includes Russia, just passed a resolution to cut production of oil by 2m barrels a day, worldwide.  The United States is not exactly appreciative of this move. It is already grappling with inflation which is at an all-time high and could do without a supply shock to such a crucial commodity.  America provides security to friendly countries in the gulf by stationing troops here. America now has threatened to remove its troops from the gulf region in retaliation. President Biden has warned the gulf states of ‘Consequences’.

If one more proof of the changing geopolitical order was needed then India and China’s behaviour is a good barometer. India of late, has been reluctant to tow the line of the west. It has not condemned Russia for the attack on Ukraine till to date, and also bought oil form Russia when the west was for boycotting Russian oil. China has not condemned Russia either. Russia and China have formed an alliance as a counter to NATO and what they view as western hegemony.

The whole situation is very interestingly poised. The current dynamics makes prediction hazardous, as anything can happen. However, the new world order which is expected to crystallize in the near future may have begun to show its contours.