Political Evolution

 

The turmoil in China, the protests in Iran, the relatively speedy reforms that MBS (Mohammed Bin Salman) undertook in Saudi Arabia have something in common. There is an underlying current which points to freedom and democracy.

People living under single party dictatorships, or a dictator, or a Sultan of a royal family are revolting against their rulers.  Iran was a relatively free country when the Shah of Iran ruled in the 1950s. Then came the clerics who overthrew the liberal Shah and unleashed a brutal rule which followed the Shia dictates.

Many Arab countries were Sheikhdoms in the last century.  When the Europeans came, trading relations grew and these kingdoms acquired some semblance of political legitimacy as they provided protection to the traders and businesses, both domestic and foreign. The discovery of oil was a boon to the rulers, and increased their political power.

Iran is also witnessing unprecedented protests. Women in Iran are demanding freedom from religious oppression. The protests have spread and is now threatening the regime of the religious clerics.

The CCP power in China has been challenged. The Tiananmen Square massacre was an indication that all was not well with the communist party rule. China opened up its economy and grew rapidly in the last three decades. The current generation of Chinese people do not know what it is to be without a job, or even economic hardship. This economic affluence kept political pressure for freedom at bay. The people were getting what they were promised. But what goes up, generally comes down. The Chinese economy began to contract just before the covid pandemic set in.

Today the Chinese growth story is all but over. This has created huge problems for the CCP. They can no longer guarantee livelihoods to the Chinese people. Also, draconian anti-covid measures enforced for the last three years have tried the patience of the Chinese people. The Zero covid policy has brought down the Chinese economy due to frequent lockdowns.

There may be many reasons for the current spate of freedom movements across the globe. One can say that this is an evolutionary step taken by nature. We always talk of evolution being an improvement. The evolutionary process on which the human race has embarked, is now in the midst of a sociological evolutionary step. Freedom is being demanded from autocratic political systems in various parts of the world.

This movement is far bigger than anything that can be crushed by force of the military and guns. What we are witnessing is the process of evolution. This is not biological evolution, it is political / sociological. Just as humans evolve biologically, their social systems also need to evolve. This is precisely what we are witnessing.  The fact that many parts of the world are witnessing similar movements gives credence to the theory that as humans are evolving so are their social systems.

China Turmoil - Writing on the Wall for the CCP?

 

The turmoil in China has made headlines in all papers the world over. China today is the most controlled society in the world today. There is at least one camera for every seven citizens in public places which AI enabled. The CCP controls everything. There is no leeway for individual enterprise, not even in business as is sometimes wrongly assumed. This current unrest is for human dignity.  

The corona virus originated in Wuhan and till to date China has not shared any information as to its origins. After the pandemic set in, the world then produced vaccines and two years later most of the countries have removed strict covid restrictions, save for cautioning their people. However, Chinese vaccines proved to be ineffective against some of the strains of the corona virus. Thus, China even two years later has had to impose strict lockdowns on its people when most of the world is learning to live with it. Experts say the Chinese government fears the virus may cause a lot of fatalities as the vaccines have not worked.

The CCP is between a rock and a hard place on this. The Chinese vaccines have been quite ineffective. Only strict lockdowns have prevented the virus from spreading. If the authorities relent and lift the restrictions, the current protests become potential super spreader events. If the virus spreads, the Chinese authorities could have several waves of infections on their hands.  

The people however are now beginning to get restless as the lockdowns have affected their livelihoods. The Chinese economy has slowed down considerably since the lockdowns began about three years ago. People have lost jobs and businesses have suffered huge losses.

Experts on China say that the slowdown in the economy is one of the reasons why the people are kept in a lock down. Jobs have evaporated as Chinese economy slowed after three decades of steady growth. If the people come out of the lockdowns and go back to work, many are going to find they have no jobs. This is what the CCP fears the most. Political unrest. They tried to prevent it, but now it is staring them in the face.

People have been demanding a relaxation of the covid curbs, but there also have been demands for freedom and the resignation of the leader Xi Jinping.

Some Chinese people watched the football world cup in Qatar and observed that there were no masks in the stadiums. This prompted many to openly criticize the CCP on its zero-covid policy. People are out on the streets in at least nine cities. Many universities have also reported stirs by students, which shows the protests are more widespread.

A fire in a building in Urumqi in Xinjiang was the trigger for these protests. There, the rescue efforts were hampered by the restrictions imposed under the zero-covid policy, as a result of which ten people died. The people are blaming Xi and the CCP for these deaths, their failure to control covid, and demanding they step down. The simmering anger and frustration of the people has finally boiled over.

As is to be expected from any dictatorship, the military has been deployed in many cities to control the mobs. Whether this proves effective this time around is doubtful. It is rumored that this is a bigger political game. Xi has just won this record third term and may become the Chinese President for life. He has had to purge many senior leaders of the CCP to get to this peak of power. It is said the leaders who were sidelined by Xi have now caused this unprecedented revolt amongst the people. There is as yet no reliable news out of China on this. Some of the top leaders of the PLA could also revolt and switch sides.

Experts are saying that the inner turmoil in China might lead Xi Jinping to create an external issue related to Chinese security as a divergence. It could be with India, Taiwan or even in the South China Sea. 

Will Xi be able to quell the protests by using force? It looks rather difficult. This turmoil has the potential to overturn the rule of the CCP. It is a classic case of concentration of political power. Too much concentration usually brings a fallout, as history teaches us. The more powerful you become, the nearer to the gate you are. The CCP’s control over the social media is also being circumvented by the people by using ingenious ideas. People are using VPNs, dating apps and coded language to get past the CCP’s surveillance. The pot has started to boil.  

It now looks like a straight fight between the people’s will and the absolute power of a dictator. To quote Peter Zeihan ‘a one man state is getting overwhelmed by non-compliance’. This is a policy paralysis typical to dictatorships. If one looks at political history of the world, the answer as to the result need not be a guess.    

On a Newfound Solid Footing

The Ministry of External Affairs in India was always in the news as it dealt with the country’s foreign relations. But it was never in the news for strong and unequivocal promotion of Indian interests in the world.

But now there is a marked difference in the way foreign policy is being handled. There is a confidence borne out by the fact that whenever India speaks at world body meetings, countries take notice. The global south has perhaps found a new mentor as being a developing country, many of India’s interests coincide with their own.

This change has come about in the last two years, especially after the pandemic. However, the signs were visible during the pandemic as well.  India’s vaccine diplomacy was much appreciated during that time.  Many countries in South America and Africa had not received any vaccines even a year into the pandemic. India sent vaccines all over the world in response to requests from countries.

The new chapter in Indian diplomacy started when China entered Galwan in eastern Ladakh and tried to claim territory which is at best disputed. In doing so they backtracked on agreements which had enabled trust to be built up for over three decades. India decided to take active measures to deter China from its misadventures. India began a series of diplomatic initiatives to engage China. It also started measures to decouple its economy from China. This was a bold step as compared to the meek responses which India had taken earlier in repose to China’s incursions along the border.

The Russia Ukraine war was the incident which showed the world a new avatar of India. Confident and resilient. The war brought in its wake supply chain disruptions and skyrocketing oil prices. Russia was offering oil at discounted prices to circumvent sanctions imposed by the US and Europe. India bought oil from Russia despite the pressure from the west to adhere to the moral high ground and show solidarity with the west. Russia was an old, trusted friend who has genuinely helped India in the past, even at times using its veto power in the UN. India was not about to abandon Russia despite its aggression in Ukraine.

This rankled the west which had till now taken India’s foreign policy for granted. They assumed that India would toe the line of the west and abandon Russia which India refused to do.

The change in India’s foreign policy is mainly due to a strong government at the center. This government has shown the courage to back its convictions. National interest is now front and center. India was able to weather high oil prices in the world due to its buying of discounted oil from Russia.

India’s foreign policy today reflects sobriety, balance and above all dogged determination. As the EAM said India is in nobody’s camp. India is in India’s camp. This message has gone out loud and clear, so much so that the US has acknowledged that India can buy as much Russian oil as its wants.

Since independence, India has also been dragged in the dock on various issues like erosion of democracy and personal freedom. Many think tanks and academics across the world have been criticizing India for what they call its rising political autocracy. In answer, experts in India are questioning the methodologies and techniques adopted by these agencies, as well as demanding that Indian rating agencies should now counter the foreign ones. Earlier India used to meekly accept any ratings that the foreign agencies dished out.

India’s policy towards Pakistan has also been articulated most unequivocally. India will not enter into any talks with Pakistan unless it stops its funding for cross border terrorism. Also, it has dealt firmly with Chinese designs on claiming and forcefully occupying Indian Territory. The Chinese military buildup along the LAC has been matched by India to deter any misadventure. India is also building its own infrastructure along the border areas. The diplomatic heft that India is showing its neighbors has been matched by action on the ground. This is the solid footing on which India’s foreign policy is standing. India can now play to its strengths when it assumes the G20 Presidency in December.

After the G20 Summit in Bali a CNN report said that a new world power is emerging in Asia, and it is not China. 

Imdia is also hosting the meeting of the National Security Advisors of the Central Asian Republics (most of the CIS) with regard to its security interests in Afghanistan. It is significant that the meeting could have been held under the umbrella of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization but was not. India wants to keep its security interest paramount in the region and hence wants to lead these countries.

It is said there will be an economic recession in the world by next year. Several wars are being fought across the world. The next few years are going to be turbulent to say the least. The current Indian policy rooted in national interest and resting on a solid footing of commitment and confidence, stemming from rising economic clout, will stand India in good stead, to navigate the troubled times ahead.

Shifting Sands of Geopolitics

 

The Geo-political sand never stays in one place. Like the proverbial sand of the desert, it is forever shifting, creating new alignments and shifting old ones.

In geopolitics too, there have been subtle changes happening in the alignment of nations. Countries are changing their stance and positions as the situation on the ground changes.

A few weeks earlier the west was insisting that India reduce its purchase of oil from Russia in order to show solidarity with the free world.

India did not condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine but was consistent in its call for dialogue and diplomacy. However, the west wanted India to be categorical in its support for Ukraine. But in this war geo-economics has also played an important role. With war came the inevitable inflation. Oil prices increased and countries scrambled to look for deals which suited them.  The situation was exacerbated due to earlier sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, two big suppliers in the world.

India’s policy was consistent that it will buy oil from whatever source at affordable rates. And it stuck to its guns over a period of six months or so.

Recently, in a policy about - turn, the US is not objecting to India’s purchase of Russian oil. The shift has come because the US now realizes that it needs India more than India needs the US. Also, US policy makers are of the opinion that the US needs India to counter China if hostilities ever break out and even otherwise. Western sanctions on the other hand have not proved quite effective against Russia as Russia is a major producer of two important commodities which the world needs. Oil and wheat.

Also, the US needs India to back it up economically. The US is promoting what it calls the Indo Pacific Economic Forum. This is an alliance conceived by the US. It includes countries in the southern Pacific Ocean which will balance China on the economic front. Without India this alliance does not amount to much. With India it becomes an excellent counterweight to China. Thus, the US is keen to get India on board in this project.

The US is also talking about friend shoring. This term signifies the US will only source its imports from countries that it considers to be friendly and reliable. This also signifies that the US does not consider China as a reliable partner anymore.

This shifting of businesses will involve tradeoffs, some quid pro quo, as India is also dependent on the US for defense and other critical technology. However, the US giving a free hand to India regarding purchase of oil from Russia signifies the US views the relationship as a long term one. Incidentally India is the only country in Asia which has stood up to the Chinese bullying tactics.

The ongoing G20 Summit is being watched closely by experts as it might give an indication as to where the world may be headed. China, for all its bravado regarding Taiwan may not actually initiate hostilities. The Chinese leadership knows China cannot withstand western sanctions and neither can it counter the American military might. China may act against India, Japan and Vietnam keeping in view its territorial claims.

The Russia Ukraine war has drastically altered the energy and trade flows in the world. Many Indian private producers like Reliance and Nayara have benefitted by exporting refined oil products to Europe and the US.

The geopolitical chessboard is a busy place currently. Moves and counter moves are being played out between nations and world leaders. We are headed for some interesting times.

China - The Way Ahead

On the eve of the National Congress of the Communist Party of China it will be worth taking stock of the situation with regard to China. Today’s China is a complex country. Listening to talks by George Friedman and Peter Zeihan and Shekhar Gupta brought home the fact that we, and the world in general, think very superficially.

We tend to take world events at face value. Whenever any world leader makes any statement, it is taken as gospel by the public and the media. This is more the case when the regime is authoritative to the extreme, as in China.  

In the late seventies Japan was at the peak of its economic power. In the eighties it began to invest in the rest of the world. It bought Warner Brothers, and many other companies in the world. Many thought that the Japan has arrived in the world, and they are buying out assets in the world. This was taken to be a sign of the rising power of Japan.

It was in fact, exactly the opposite. Japan was investing outside of Japan because return on capital had fallen inside Japan. Even in the peak of their economic boom return on capital in Japan was very low.

Today China is doing the same. They started the Belt and Road initiative and made massive investments around the world. But the return on investment they are getting from these projects is dismal. In countries like China a growing economy has to be defined differently. In China growth has to be achieved to create jobs, not wealth, like in other economies. Most of the private sector in China is heavily subsidized. China produces a lot, but very inefficiently. Their return on capital is a dismal 1.7%. Loss of jobs means social unrest, which is what the CPC fears the most.

Now Xi Jinping has secured his third term as leader of the CPC in the on-going Party Congress. If he has his way, he could anoint himself president for life. This would be unprecedented. Xi Jinping has built a personality cult around himself. He is trying for absolute power in China, for life. In the modern age, this looks rather unrealistic. But in China absolute power is still achievable. Xi gas surrounded himself with yes men, loyalists.  Whether he will be able to retain this absolute power, however, is the real question.

Where will China go from here? Looking at the economy of China there is not much room to maneuver. China faces many problems. The housing crisis has now ballooned and threatens to slow down the entire economy. The spillover effect of this crisis has started affecting other sectors too. The Local governments and some banks have been facing serious funds crunch. The zero covid strategy is not working and is causing huge anxiety among people. It has also derailed China’s manufacturing sector causing unemployment. Experts say, the lack of an effective vaccine has forced the leaders to continue with the policy. 

Some interesting facts have been brought to light by experts. It seems, by studying the satellite imagery of the intensity of night- time lights of a country, experts can draw conclusions about the amount of economic activity in a country and by inference its relative affluence. China has not released its data for the 3rd quarter of 2022. This prompted economists and data scientists to resort to unconventional methods to gauge the progress of China's economy. 

What Xi Jinping really has done is increased the cost of political failure in China. Deng Xiaoping had introduced the principle of collective responsibility based on consensus. Failure of a policy or its success was considered to be that of the whole Politburo and not of any individual. This consensus had made the CPC somewhat benign. But now the balance of power in the CPC is gone and the Xi faction has no opposition. Purges have had to be carried out as in the case of Hu Jintao.

Moreover, many old co-operatives have been restarted by Xi Jinping. This would suggest that Xi wants to take China back to the co-operative economy of the Mao era. Experts suggest, Xi may be either preparing for war or a famine.  

It is not so anymore. Now power is concentrated in one person and so is the responsibility that goes with it. If Xi fails to achieve any of his declared goals, he stands to lose everything, maybe even his life. He has created many enemies on his way up, who now will be looking for a weakness to exploit. 

The top leadership in China is locked in a bitter power struggle which could continue for a long time even after the conclusion of the Congress.

Xi Jinping is taking China back to the Mao era. He wants to create his own legacy. The recently concluded CPC Congress has laid down China's future path in no uncertain terms. Nationalism has taken center stage. Inside China it is no more about development anymore. It is about socialism as dictated by the CPC and its complete domination of the Chinese society. Foreign investors, as a result, are having second thoughts about investing in China and are looking for alternatives. The CPC has gone into its comfort zone, which is repression. 

With absolute power in his grasp the leader now has the tools to force his will on his people. The world should expect a more belligerent and unpredictable China.

New World Order – Emerging Contours

There has been a marked shift in the way nations are looking at their relations with other nations. The Russia -Ukraine war has now dragged into its eight month and the world has suffered because of it. Shortages of food, oil, gas have pushed up inflation and brought misery to millions, especially those living in poor countries. 

In my earlier article on the emerging world order, I said that it would be difficult to predict anything. While the situation has not changed much, some trends can be noticed through the geopolitical fog. 

As the war drags on and more difficulties emerge in dealing with the upheavals in geopolitics, countries are shedding their initial policies and posturing and are trying to stem the rising turmoil.

Europe has seen political winds of change. The Italian elections have thrown up a right-wing government which is friendly to Russia. Now, news is that Russia could restore gas supplies to Italy. The war and it’s disruptions in supplies, has also prompted protests in France demanding that France should leave NATO. Putin wanted to drive a wedge between NATO countries in order to have better bargaining power. He was trying to wean Germany away from NATO by cutting off its gas supplies, but it could be France instead. Putin may succeed, which means the US will see its bargaining power with Russia considerably reduced and a big strategic blow to NATO.

Despite the sanctions, Russia will not be a pushover. All the sanctions imposed till now have weakened Russia, but not crippled it. Its ability to wage war has diminished but it is still a force to reckon with. Also, Iran has stepped in to supply Russia with drones and other material. This is one pawn in the game whose move was not predicted.

The countries in the middle east, who were traditionally pro west, also seem to be taking a different path. The OPEC+ group which includes Russia, just passed a resolution to cut production of oil by 2m barrels a day, worldwide.  The United States is not exactly appreciative of this move. It is already grappling with inflation which is at an all-time high and could do without a supply shock to such a crucial commodity.  America provides security to friendly countries in the gulf by stationing troops here. America now has threatened to remove its troops from the gulf region in retaliation. President Biden has warned the gulf states of ‘Consequences’.

If one more proof of the changing geopolitical order was needed then India and China’s behaviour is a good barometer. India of late, has been reluctant to tow the line of the west. It has not condemned Russia for the attack on Ukraine till to date, and also bought oil form Russia when the west was for boycotting Russian oil. China has not condemned Russia either. Russia and China have formed an alliance as a counter to NATO and what they view as western hegemony.

The whole situation is very interestingly poised. The current dynamics makes prediction hazardous, as anything can happen. However, the new world order which is expected to crystallize in the near future may have begun to show its contours.

International Relations at Work

 

It is interesting to note how international politics, or for that matter any politics, works on perceptions.

The Russia Ukraine war has upset a lot of equations, in the west and east. Russia has been the traditional enemy of the west since the end of WWII. Even after its fall, the west continued to view its actions with mistrust. As Russian power decreased there was a predictable approach by NATO to countries which were formerly under the Warsaw Pact with an offer of membership.

Ukraine was prominent among them. Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belorussia, and all of the Central Asian states came under the influence of the west. These newly liberated states wanted investments to sustain their economies. Russia could not do that and so began to lose influence over these states.

The US took advantage of the situation and began to add these newly liberated states (mostly European) into the NATO fold. When eventually they reached Ukraine, Russia put its foot down.

This is a game of perceptions. India is now an emerging player in this balance of power equation. But for India the main reason to join groups like the quad is to counter China. For India, Russia is a friend, but China needs to be deterred. For the other members of the quad Russia also needs watching.

That India views Russia and China differently is obvious from the fact that India abstained from voting in the UNSC against Russia on the resolution on Russia’s annexation of some of Ukraine’s provinces, but, helped to thwart Chinese resolution against the AUKUS regarding breach of the NPT in the IAEA. 

If America wanted to check China, it could have weaned Russia away from China. American actions against Russia have forced it to side with China. The Russo-Chinese relationship is nothing to write home about. China wants Russian resources like oil and other minerals in the Russian far-east. China ultimately wishes to annex this region by flooding it with their own people and changing its demographics.

It is in India’s strategic interest to not let Russia go under the boot heels of China. Probably, India is also eyeing the Russian resources in the Arctic region. There have been talks regarding India investing in this region and having a permanent presence here.

Thus, every power, small or big, is vying to achieve its own strategic ends in this region. There are some convergences among perceived enemies and some divergences among friends. 

The Armenia Azerbaijan conflict has also shown how nations maneuver for advantages. Turkey was interfering in the Kashmir issue at Pakistan's behest. India has responded by bringing out the issue of Cyprus which is a burning issue between Turkey and Greece. Turkey and Pakistan have also funded internal Islamic dissidents in India, namely the PFI and earlier the SIMI. Turkey is helping Azerbaijan in this conflict.  Thus, India thinks it is justified in supplying arms to Armenia to counter Turkey in Central Asia. It has been noticed that whatever happens in this region has a direct bearing on India's security. 

This is how international politics works. The power play among nations and the maneuvering for advantage is evident here. The outcome is anybody’s guess. But experts say that China is now viewed as a declining power economically, and demographically, and may see its window of opportunity closing fast. If that is indeed the case, Chinese leadership may throw caution to the winds and act against Taiwan.

The way matters are headed, a clash between the USA and China cannot be ruled out in the near future. A student of international relations would be interested in learning how the other powers loose or gain from this rivalry.