China's Window of Opportunity

 

A very interesting development has taken place regarding the relations between Australia and China.  An article in the Atlantic by Michael Schuman which gives food for thought and is related to this issue, also makes an interesting read.

China recently gave a list of its grievances to Australia. The list includes economic investments made by China, now frozen. Access for Chinese students to Australian universities, Australia’s raising of the issue of the Corona pandemic origins as wells as calling out China on human rights.  In diplomatic parlance this is like an ultimatum. The thing to be noted here is that the list has been given by one sovereign country to another which is rarely done. Even severe differences are not aired through public media like the Chinese have done.  

Australia is member of the Five Eyes group and so could have been targeted by the Chinese as a testing ground for their coercive diplomacy.  Through Australia, China could be testing the resolve of the group as well as the rest of the free world. Target one country and test pressurize it until it relents.  In fact China could also target the Quad in a similar way.  Try to find a weak link in the alliance. This could be a deliberate offensive launched by the Chinese to test waters

The list of grievances so unsubtly leaked is a kind of a diplomatic rap.  Probably even unknowingly China may have given an ultimatum to Australia and in doing so has cast the diplomatic die. After this its relations with Australia are not going to be mended for a long time.

Michael Schuman’s article in the Atlantic titled ‘How Xi Blew it’ dwells on how China has missed the bus to lead the world which Xi Jinping keeps harping on. 

China has military and economic heft to lead the world but no soft power to sustain its leadership. To be a superpower a country needs military and economic heft but more than anything else it needs soft power. For others to follow you willingly you need to project leadership. That only comes with soft power.

Trump's 'America First' policy had given China and Xi Jinping a great opportunity to take over the world leadership. But China lacks one important quality, that of trust. US brands have an instant recall around the world. Apple, Google, McDonalds, Jeep, Walt Disney etc. All of them signify technology, leadership and have been around for years.  China is not there yet. Some Chinese companies were becoming familiar to the world but unfortunately have now come under a cloud of suspicion. They are associated with spying and data theft. Case in point is Huawei.  Stigmas like this have an uncanny way of rubbing on other institutions of the same country and are hard to remove.

In post pandemic times it is going to be extremely difficult for China or President Xi Jinping to alter perceptions about themselves. According to Pew Research, China is viewed negatively by most of the developed world.  China, by causing aggression in the South China Sea and on the border with India has dealt a near fatal blow to its dreams of becoming a world leader. It continues to blatantly flout all norms regarding human rights. It is now obvious that Xi Jinping and the CCP have overreached in their effort to make China a world leader. 

The real road to world leadership goes via peace, persuasion and freedom. China needs to understand this.  China has not done any course correction even after its popularity in world opinion plumetted. Probably it expects the rest of the world to come around to its way of thinking eventually and be accomodated inspite of its wayward and agressive behaviour.

But as the Schuman article says,  the world may compromise with China. The Chinese are not so naive  not to realise the lost opportunity,  With the coming of the Biden administration the window of opportunity is closed and a belated realisation wont help them to open it again.  

Biden - No Big Reset

 

The change of guard at the White House in the USA is usually a momentous occasion. Countries all over the world try to work out where they stand vis-a-vis the incoming government. The US elections have attracted a huge interest all over the world this time as it was fought bitterly till the end, a no holds barred contest.

The Trump administration was something the rest of the world is glad to have seen the back of.  Trump was a disruptor. Not being a career politician, he did not have the diplomatic niceties or the mannerisms of one. He was transactional and unpredictable to boot. In a smaller less important country, he could have been avoided. But he was the US president and so had to be confronted at every juncture. US allies were wary of his policies which gave little consideration for trust and friendship built over the years.

Now that Biden is in the White House US allies have heaved a sigh of relief. A return to normalcy is expected by the world comity of nations. However the Biden administration will have to hit the ground running come January. The pandemic will have to be addressed immediately.  Biden may find his hands tied somewhat when he starts to roll out his plans. On the foreign policy front he has to repair the damage that Trump has done in his four years. The allies will have to be reassured by returning to the old ways. The nuclear agreement with Iran will have to be salvaged. Biden will have to keep up the tough stance on China which he has already mentioned in his various speeches. In fact during the last days of the Obama administration the US was beginning to get tough on China.

Human rights world wide is a pet issue of the Democrats. That will come up in its dealings with China. The US policy on the South China Sea has had bipartisan support.  NATO will be restored to its pre-Trump eminence and QUAD will be consolidated. India also may have to take some flak from the new government on rights issues in Kashmir, the CAA and NRC. All that will come to past. So the reset will not be so drastic. By and large many of the previous administration’s policies will be continued but may be more nuanced. Biden may not be belligerent towards China as Trump but will be firm and more strategic than transactional in his approach.

In a way Biden’s hands are tied by events which have taken place at the international level. Even as he comes into office, he has already announced some of his actions and some can be predicted as being characteristic of the pre-Trump America. Disruptive digressions in policy formulations will not be pursued. US allies and the world has had enough of it.

China and Russia have not yet congratulated the new president elect citing ambiguity in the results, be that as it may, the new administration has its work cut out once it assumes office. Experts say Trump might make some irreversible decisions regarding US foreign policy which the incoming team may find difficult to change or negotiate.  

The Biden team may not have the liberty to go for a big reset. A continuation of the old policies with  subtle changes may be in order here. Given the tumultuous year that the world has experienced so far, this may be good news.

India China Clash - Testing Times

 

The current visit of the American Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense to India has to be looked at in the background of the on-going standoff with China.  While agreements are signed as and when both the signatories feel the need to do so, the current occasion definitely merits a closer look.

This time the Chinese are working to a plan. The timing may or may not be significant. Under Xi Jinping who has concentrated all the political power in his hands, this could be a make or break moment. Since he is President for life the consequences of his actions probably do not matter so much to him as say for a democratically elected leader. But having committed to unilateral belligerence the Chairman and his coterie of confidants have burned all their bridges.

By its belligerence China has sent notice to all its neighbours and to the big powers that they i.e. the Chinese, are the true big power in the region and every country should pay obeisance to it. China demands respect in the region. Three straight decades of growth have instilled some confidence in the top leadership of the CCP that they can pull it off.  A Deng Xiaoping would have taken a more subtle approach but Xi is a little bolder and perhaps more reckless. He set his agenda for what he wanted to achieve and then made himself President for life as the statutory two terms would not have been enough time for what he had in mind. Chinese leadership thinks that the moment has come to take charge of its destiny.

The BECA was signed during the current 2+2 dialogue between US and India, but earlier the LEMOA (Logistic Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) the COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and other such agreements have increased bilateral military cooperation between the two countries. The BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement) was signed to help India get access to a range of geospatial, topographical, aeronautical and nautical data which will help it target missiles and deploy drones.

The geostrategic implications are not lost on anybody, much less on China. Despite its rhetoric on it respecting the rules based world order, China flouts norms when it suits it. China is also gradually taking over world forums like the UNHRC and the UN itself, increasing its influence by dishing out large sums of money or by offering repayment moratoriums or outright cancellations of huge developmental loans given to smaller countries.

Despite this, not everybody is keen on jumping on the free world bandwagon, as China wields considerable influence over smaller countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Some owe China money for loans taken earlier under the Belt and Road Initiative and others simply do not want to get involved in what they see as big power rivalry. So till to date China has had its way by twisting the international rule book and by bulldozing the rules when it suited them. Their propaganda arm works overtime whenever they flout international norms and tries to portray the country as a victim of international persecution. But the world is slowly waking up to these tactics. The Quad concept is a manifestation of the need felt by other free nations to counter Chinese aggression and bad behaviour.

But the Quad is yet to be tested. And tested it will be. The Chinese have shown that they can subtly tweak a system to get a minute advantage which looks like a pinprick in the bigger scheme of things. But it is a small gain and if the victim or target country does not respond they will keep on causing these minor provocations to test the limits of tolerance. The Quad has to decide at what point it will respond on this ladder of escalation. This is important because the Chinese will not stop their salami slicing until their adversary responds with a resoluteness and commitment which is conveyed unequivocally through actions.

India’s actions on the LAC when it responded to the Chinese attack can be cited here. The Chinese clearly took the worst of the exchange on June 15. The casualties they suffered sent a clear message to the top CCP leadership that they had reached the tolerance limit of their adversary and decided to  proceed more cautiously. The sooner the Chinese are given this message in an exchange the better, as otherwise their provocations continue relentlessly.

Firm action by the Quad will go a long way to convince the fence sitting smaller nations that there is organized resistance to Chinese aggression. The proof of the pudding is in eating it, the Quad may have to prove itself before long in order to protect the rules based world order.

India China Clash - Collateral Damage

 

There has been a marked shift in the rhetoric coming out of China in the past few days. While on the surface there does not seem to be any change in the aggressive posturing that the CCP usually adopts, one can detect a minute shift in the stance that the Chinese are taking. 

It may be possible that the dragon has now found out that it has bitten off more than it can chew but more so from the realisation that the game was not going in its favour.  The first reverse came when the Indian army and the Ghatak commandos gave a very good account of themselves in the clash on 15th June. This incident, more than anything else put the brakes on the Chinese ambitions. The Chinese establishment were not expecting casualties. China has been building up an image of the PLA and in general its armed forces for some time now. They had carefully cultivated an image where they touted their force modernisation and their drive for expanding its scope and reach. Acquiring new bases and occupying islands in the South Pacific. How much the world bought into this image is a matter of conjecture, but a general impression among the smaller neighbours was that China had a strong modern military. 

This myth about the strength was shattered on June 15th as China suffered casualties in the skirmish with the Indian army. The CCP made it worse by not declaring PLA casualties, as then speculation was rife all over that the Chinese suffered more dead than the Indian Army. 

 It was known that China had no experience of fighting a war since their last clash with Vietnam in 1975. And they came a cropper when they were tested on the June 15th clash. This reflects on the other branches of the Chinese armed forces as well. If the PLA could not hold its own against the seasoned Indian Army, what about the PLA Navy and the Air Force? These doubts will now be raised. This is the collateral damage China has suffered. Chinese military expansionism was looked at as a sign of Chinese military strength. But with the Galwan incident, it is now clear that the PLA suffers the same vulnerabilities as any other force in the world, probably even more so. 

Mars and Venus

Amid the on-going pandemic mankind has been active doing other things besides fighting the virus. Despite the near standstill that the world was forced to undergo, humans still have to live and let business continue as usual. Mars has come into limelight and Venus has sprung a surprise.

Mars

The red planet gives a small window after every 26 months when the distance between Earth and Mars is the least. A lot of missions are heading to Mars this season. It could be that Mars might see some traffic jams. NASA is sending the Perseverance Rover to Mars. This rover is also accompanied by a small helicopter which will set the tone for future aerial exploration missions.

The next is the Russian-European ExoMars rover named Rosalind Franklin. The vehicle carries instruments to detect life on the red planet. This time the UAE is also sending their vehicle to Mars riding piggy back on the Japanese H-IIA rocket. This is the Hope Mars Mission or Emirates Mars Mission. The UAE mission will study meteorological layers on Mars and the presence of different gases in Martian atmosphere. China also is sending a mission this time round. The Mars Global Remote Sensing Orbiter will be accompanied by a rover. The two vehicles will carry instruments to study the planet and gather scientific data.

There is no dearth of human presence on Mars. There are the Curiosity rover and Insight Lander. In the air we have six orbiters. NASA's MAVEN, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and Mars Odyssey. Mars Express and Euro-Russian ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter and India's Mars Orbiter Mission.

The reason why Mars is in focus is because countries do not want to be left behind in the race for Mars. It will still take another decade for human explorers to complete preparations for setting foot there. But there could be international collaborations to go to the red planet. If you have proven technology for space travel or planetary exploration, you could be offered a collaboration or partnership with any of the leading spacefaring nations. 

Mars is not going to become economically viable any time soon. But that is not going to stop any country from taking its chances by joining hands to explore it. If Mars springs a surprise in an exotic material resource, nobody wants to be left behind. If you have a seat at this high table, you will be counted. In any international agreement to exploit resources in space, the countries which have proven prowess in space exploration will definitely call the shots.

Venus

One more good news coming from the space industry is that some interesting chemicals were detected on Venus. The planet which is considered a twin of our earth is difficult to explore to say the least. Its atmosphere is very corrosive and its surface temperature is extremely high. About 450 degrees centigrade. Also the atmospheric pressure there is about ninety times that on Earth. It is not surprising that all the spacecraft sent to that planet fell prey to this inhospitable environment.

Russia is the only country to land a craft on Venus  The Venera series of explorers, could withstand the heat and the corrosion on the planet for only about two hours. To circumvent this problem NASA has a facility called GEER (Glen Extreme Environment Rig) in Ohio. Here the Venetian atmosphere is created inside a chamber and materials are tested for their capability to withstand the conditions.

The reason why Venus has come into focus is because even in these inhospitable conditions, tell tale presence of certain chemicals point to the possibility of life. Researchers are skeptical to say the least. But again the possibility is not being ignored out of hand.

On September 14 a report published in the journal Nature Astronomy revealed that a group of scientists had discovered the molecule phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. This molecule is made up of phosphorous and Hydrogen atoms and was detected by the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope in Hawaii.  This telescope observes in the far infrared and microwave wavelengths.

Phosphine on earth is released by living organisms which live in oxygen free environments. Scientists say they have not been able to create the gas in any other way using an alternative mechanism. One possibility is that there may be microbial life in the upper atmosphere of the planet as the temperature there is much lower than on the surface. At about 83 degree Fahrenheit one can expect to find life.

In order to get answers to their questions, scientists say, a mission to Venus is necessary. One which measures atmospheric gases on the planet and mass spectrometers to detect complex molecules associated with life. Venus being low on the priority list of major space agencies has not had much exposure to scientific study. Perhaps the discovery of phosphine will change that.

The Israel UAE Accord

 

The geopolitical world is in a turmoil in the middle of the pandemic that has entered its eighth month and has left humanity on earth clueless about any solution to end it. Its raining events, leaving analysts with a backlog of work. The crisis in Syria and the US Iran row are still a work in progress. To those add the events in the South China Sea, then the Chinese transgression of the Indian border. Potentially these events can spark hostilities among the various players involved.  However the accord between the Arabs and Israel can be said to be a positive development in the complex politics of the Middle East. Never the most stable of regions, the Middle East sometimes has bordered on being a tinder box. Notwithstanding the opposition of Iran and Turkey the accord could turn out to be a harbinger of peace.

This accord was many years in the making. As early as 2010 the UAE decided to align itself with the policies of the US in the gulf, though this also meant throwing the Palestinians under the bus. In 2010 Israeli Mossad agents killed a Palestinian leader in Abu  Dhabi. The agents were not pursued by UAE. After the oil prices fell as a result of reduction in US off take from the gulf region in 2014-15, the rulers of the oil-rich countries realized that the days of subsidizing their economies with petro-dollars was over. After the Arab spring movement the writing was on the wall for family ruled Sheikhdoms. Rulers in Egypt, Libya and Syria succumbed to this revolution.

The prominent ruling families in the gulf region realized that in the future, with oil no more a bargaining commodity, other resources would be a key for economic development which will guarantee political stability. Iran and Turkey were destabilizing the elements which needed to be countered. Iran being Shia is opposed to Saudi Arabia and the UAE which are Sunni. Turkey under Erdogan has made no secret of its ambition of establishing a Caliphate to dominate the Arabs harking back to the Ottoman Empire.  

Surprisingly, in this situation, Israel suddenly becomes a stabilizing factor. Israel can help the Arabs (south of the strait of Hormuz) in their endeavor to develop rapidly. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have always coordinated their policies. In 2019 Saudi Arabia gave over-flight permission to international airlines (incidentally, Air India was the first) for their flights to Israel. That was an indicator that a thaw was imminent in the Arab Israeli relations.

The countries opposed to the treaty are not unanimous in their stand. Like Iran and Turkey Pakistan did not reject the treaty outright as it finds itself in a quandary. It regards Israel as its traditional enemy, not just on religious grounds but also because of Israeli occupation of Palestine. But the deal is brokered by the US which Pakistan cannot afford to antagonize. Also, Saudi Arabia is the largest donor to the cash strapped Pakistani economy. This makes its position unenviable. The accord will see Israel stop making any additional claims on Gaza and the west bank in return for full recognition by the UAE. Pakistan could latch on to this if it decides on normalizing its relations with Israel.  Iran and Turkey are the only important countries in the region which could potentially cause trouble. But how far would they go to disrupt this historic treaty is a matter of conjecture. The other interested party, China, has not opened its cards as yet. Its response will depend on how this accord affects its trade deal with Iran and the CPEC project in Pakistan.  

This accord will be quickly scaled up and deepened as there are a multitude of areas which both the signatories can collaborate on. Other countries in the region will jump on this bandwagon as the economic implications are realized. Exchange of visits by the leaders are already being planned and opening of missions will follow.

There is a Sunni Shia taint to this accord which is unmistakable. Looking at the political fissures, the OIC’s future looks bleak too. Israelis settled on the west bank are not happy at this decision of their government. Also, Israel may object to sale of high tech weapons by the US to the UAE.  All these factors cast some doubts on the success of the accord.  Be that as it may, there is no denying that middle east politics is on an important cusp of change.

The Lancet Report

The world population survey published by the Lancet journal recently has revealed some interesting data. The study was undertaken by the Lancet journal involving lot of experts in various fields. Lancet is respected the world over for its competence and unbiased reporting.

Some of the interesting data that immediately comes to attention is that India’s population will peak by the year 2048 to 1.6 billion and will decline to about 1.09 billion by the year 2100. Even with this decline in total population, India will be the world’s most populous country.  China would have declined from 1.4b in 2017 to about 0.72 billion in 2100. The below table will give the reader an idea of the interesting and unexpected trends in world population growth.  The study covers 195 countries and the data highlighted here is limited by the scope of this article.

Population dynamics up to 2100 

2107	Country	2100
1.3 b	India	1.09 b
1.4 b	China	732 m
157 m	Bangladesh	87 m
206 m	Nigeria	791 m

We can see in the above table that Nigeria will overtake China by 2100. Bangladesh which today is considered overpopulated and backward will decline population wise and stabilize at a much lower level. At that level, experts say, Bangladesh could become the next Singapore. Even before this study came out, it was known that India’s population growth rate was declining. So at some point of time logic would dictate that its overall population would start reducing. The Lancet study puts this trend into perspective and quantifies it to the extent that it can be taken as a guideline for national planning.

What does this study mean for India? That is something our planners have to take into consideration for the future. In 2017 India was the 7^th economy globally in GDP terms. The country will be 3^rd highest in 2100. The Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 in 2019 will decline to 1.29 in 2100. The working age population in India will fall from 762 m in 2017 to 578 m in 2100. With this figure India will have the largest working age population in the world in 2100.

If India’s population is going to peak by 2048, then the demographic dividend has a run of about 28 years only. In this time frame the overall economic reforms have to take a hold. Economic planners have to hit the ground running as there are not even three full decades for the benefits to accrue. India’s economic reforms have been an on and off affair as successive governments backtracked on the reforms and introduced populist schemes which drained public resources.  If this survey is to be taken as a guideline, the government has to align the policies with the given time frame.

Educating the people, imparting the right skills, developing urban infrastructure will have to be undertaken on a war footing. Investing in human capital will be of utmost importance.  Urban infrastructure will entail transportation network, healthcare, sanitation and other facilities. This development will be necessary as there will be mass migrations as new jobs become available at industrial centers. The development will feed on itself with the result that national income will increase exponentially if the dividend is reaped successfully. The New Education Policy (NEP) which was revealed a few days ago, could not have come at a better time. The GST system, the Bankruptcy Code Bill too were steps in the right direction. But new labour laws have to be introduced and privatization of the public sector has to be fast tracked. Thus, a lot needs to be done yet.

Time is of utmost importance. 28 years is not a long time in the life of a nation and plans will have to be expedited on a war footing. India cannot afford to miss this bus as it could then be staring at a demographic disaster.