Mars - Compulsion not a choice

Recently there have been a spate of space exploration missions to Mars. This red planet which is our nearest neighbor in the solar system has gained a lot of attention from the scientific community. All the space faring countries have some space program concerning Mars. Many of these countries have already sent exploratory vehicles successful exploration missions to Mars. Of course it will take some time for man to set foot there . 

There is interest in our red neighbor because it is the closest. While that may be so, Mars happens to be the first planet which will be explored and exploited for the benefit of mankind. The fact that it is the closest makes it convenient. Man has started exploring space not only for knowledge but also to find resources for his sustenance/survival.

It is being continuously debated that poor countries having  a large population with low per capita income should not spend on space exploration. While the logic of this argument cannot be refuted, there could be some justification for spending a small part of a country’s income on high technology projects. Today space exploration is expensive and glamorous but tomorrow it could become routine and necessary. The fact has hit home that the resources on earth are finite and will one day be gone. Global warming has got to a stage where we are not sure if we can reverse the process. In the long term the very existence of our civilization on Earth could be in question. Stephen Hawking the British scientist some time back said that man will have to leave this planet one day if he is to survive

Though this may sound alarming the end will not come tomorrow. But man has realized that he has to find an alternative to the only home he has in the universe, to continue his existence.

This is where our red neighbor comes into the picture.  Mars will be the next stop on our journey into space. It is now a safe bet that within the next 20- 30 years humans would have colonized Mars.  Also, Mars is first in the queue. There will be many more as human capability and endeavor increase.

Recently there has been a revival of interest in the Moon as well. The USA, Russia, India, China, Israel, Japan all have plans to explore the Moon. It being the closest to Earth is attractive enough. But two main reasons are given for the sudden interest in Moon. First, exploring resources and the second, use it as a launch pad for further forays into deep space. Moon’s one sixth gravity is a big attraction for space agencies. The escape velocity for rockets launched from the moon would make launches for further exploration cheaper. Colonizing the Moon itself would be expensive but extra-terrestrial resources could bring down the costs.

Granted, that space faring or exploration will not pay back in the short run, nor will it help feed the millions of poor in the immediate future. But space being the final frontier holds promise.  Man has already started looking for resources in outer space.  The asteroid Vesta was recently visited by the Dawn spacecraft. Part of that mission was to look for resources as Vesta is known to have iron ore deposits. The current wave of unmanned explorers going to Mars and other planets and asteroids is  for hunting much needed resources.  Eventually a part of humanity will have to leave for other colonies and space travel will become fairly common.

In the light of this a robust space faring capability is in the interest of mankind which is looking at the future with optimism.

Human Progress - Real Progress?

Since man evolved on this planet he has been continuously trying to create conditions which he thinks are conducive to his growth and for improvement of his life.

There are many discoveries and inventions which have improved human life on earth. Every generation of humans have had it better than the last in terms of ease of living. Inventions such as fire, wheel, electricity have been astounding in their own right. Modern inventions like the internal combustion engine or electricity, telephone have indeed helped man to promote and consolidate his civilization. Others like aviation and space travel have taken humans even further.

But things are not as simple if we look a little deeper.  From the very first fire that was created by man ages ago the process of polluting the atmosphere began.  Whatever was burnt then, sent smoke into the air and thus began a process which continues to this day.  That fire may have caused a revolution in civilizational terms but today it has become a huge problem for mankind.

Human progress is marked by big discoveries and inventions. But in hindsight, it now seems all our inventions are mixed blessings.  One example can be the automobile. It was a big leap for man but came with a lot of caveats. Burning of fossil fuels has just added to our woes even if we can go from one place to another in less time and in more comfort today.  

Only recently Stephen Hawking said that man will have to leave this planet within the next hundred years and settle somewhere else if he has to survive. If man is supposed to have made progress all this time he has been on this planet, how is it that his own actions are compelling him to leave the planet. So what is progress? Is it our fulfilling of all our needs to our satisfaction?  Our cars, air conditioners, thermal power plants, all have made life on this planet very easy and convenient. These facilities are milestones in our progress as an intelligent race. However they cannot be taken for granted.

 A case in point could be the settlement of the American continent.  Before the white man came the native Red Indian was quite content with his simple, nomadic life. His wants were limited. His technology was just enough to sustain him. The native Indian lacked for nothing. Of course there was no education in the modern sense and therefore hardly any progress in his lifestyle. For centuries the American Indians were hunters and gatherers and would have continued in the same way if the white man had not come.

The white man brought the gun which eased hunting, the train and stagecoach eased travel and the telegraph which eased communication. But all this came at a price.  The American buffalo was all but wiped out. Ease of access led to mining for gold and other minerals, scarring the land. So has progress been good for the native American? He lost his livelihood and ended up on reservations. Similarly if the flora and fauna on this planet are left to their own ways, i.e. no human interference in nature, the planet would be way better off.  Case in point is the current lockdowns imposed due to the pandemic. It has been noticed that if left alone, the earth will recover itself from the ravages caused by human progress. 

Another example could be the ongoing debate in the field of medicine about the relation between level of LDL or bad cholesterol on heart disease in humans.  After years of research some drug companies and medical research institutes are arguing that there is no compelling evidence that reducing cholesterol prevents heart disease in humans. In fact it is the other way round. Low cholesterol levels have been found to be responsible for cardiovascular disease.  

So are we back to square one?  While this debate will continue in public fora for some time, we have to ask if any real progress was made after so many years of research and spending so much money.

Humans, being intelligent, cannot remain static like plants and animals. We have to make progress if we are to survive as a race. To cut a long story short and at the peril of sounding skeptical, the fundamental question to be asked is whether progress has accrued any real gains for humans.  If our survival on this planet is in question today because of our progress, then should we call ourselves a progressive race?

Belt and Road Project - Chinese Checkers

Much has been written about the grandiose OBOR(One Belt One Road or Belt & Road) project promoted by China as a project for 21^st century.  The project envisages linking countries and whole regions by land and sea routes mainly, to facilitate trade with Chinese investments. According to China it will bring in increased trade and as a consequence increased affluence and benefits for all those who participate in this venture. There is also a historical angle as it is supposed to be the New Silk Route.

However there are many who are rather skeptical of this grandiose scheme. After the grand opening in Beijing some countries have begun to express reservations regarding lack of transparency about how the project will be implemented, who will benefit and to what extent. Some analyses have already said that this project mainly benefits China and that other countries especially the poor ones will be paid a lip service. China has built up over capacities in its manufacturing sector over the years and now faces a slow down in world demand for their products. They also have accumulated a lot of debt due to their relentless drive for infrastructure development. Now the Chinese government is under pressure to provide  work for their people who  have been rendered jobless due to the slow down.  Hence OBOR.

CPEC which is a part of OBOR is a flagship project. This project which envisages construction of  road and rail connectivity from Kashghar in China to the Gwadar port in Pakistan also includes power plants and agricultural projects.  This is said to be a game changer for Pakistan.  But transparency is an issue. Nobody in Pakistan is clear as to what will be the division of investments and benefits. All projects are being implemented by Chinese government companies.

Some precedents have been set which have made many uncomfortable. Countries like Sri Lanka and Kazakhstan have burnt their fingers. These countries took loans from China on a much higher interest rate than what is provided by the multilateral agencies. Now they are finding it difficult to repay the loan. China, on its part has asked the countries to convert this debt into equity making them the owners of the infrastructure they invested to build in these countries. Sri Lanka has handed over its Hambantota port to China on a long lease as the country defaulted on its repayment of loans. 

Another hurdle for  OBOR  could be China’s own position. Chinese economy is slowing down after almost three decades of steady and spectacular growth. Moody’s has downgraded China by a single slot in its ratings. China’s  debt is now 230 percent of its GDP.  This is considered to be a bad sign. China wants to convert this debt into equity hence the check book diplomacy and the buying spree in other countries.

There is another factor which has not been  adequately analyzed. This is the Chinese ambition to become a world player, a superpower.  After Trump  got elected, the US started withdrawing from global pacts like the Trans Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. China now sees itself as an alternative to the US to lead the world and project itself as a global leader.

There seems to be nothing wrong with this ambition on the surface as nations and empires have tried this before. But dig a little deeper and some things do not quite add up. Global powers in modern times have not been able to force themselves upon weaker states to dominate them.  It is the circumstances which have created global powers. The Ottoman Empire came into being because of its central location and the resultant trade benefits. The US became a super power after the WWII as American industry received a tremendous fillip due to government contracts for war production.  But the world which creates a super power has never tolerated a power which forces issues and muscles its way onto global fora.

Chinese scientific prowess is suspect. They have been caught stealing American rocket and space technology. Also Russians are reluctant to sell them military technology.  The Chinese consistently use reverse engineering to copy and then duplicate whatever they get from the Russians.  An aspiring global power cannot sustain its industrial innovation on reverse engineering and copied technology. 

China already has wide ranging disputes in the South China Sea. It has not accepted the UNCLOS ruling to vacate the disputed Paracel and Spratly islands as well as the nine dash line which it considers its maritime boundary.  Its reputation as a reliable trading partner is not very widely accepted. It is considered dominating especially for small and weak economies. OBOR is seen to be more of a strategic than economic initiative.

Another factor is that China is a single party dictatorship. Though this has helped it to become a huge manufacturing behemoth by taking one sided decisions,  it has certain intrinsic weaknesses. There is no transparency in its actions. The figures it gives out regarding its economic  performance are regularly fudged.  It is said that china has been accumulating huge debts since 2008. And despite the denials from Chinese officials a hard landing (economic down turn) is imminent. Premier Xi Jinping is seen to be a very strong leader today with an iron grip over the National People’s Congress. He sustained this grip as the Chinese economy was growing at a double digit figure during the last decade. But as in any dictatorship his position is precarious even at the best of times. If the Chinese economy falters  further or fails to pick up in the near future Xi could very well have to step down.  This could be weighing heavily on his mind currently. The grandiose OBOR has been initiated to give a great fillip to Chinese prestige abroad and also to quell  growing domestic political opposition as the economy starts to falter.  

Given all these factors  how much will China be able to dominate the world only time will tell. But the start is definitely not very auspicious.

Indian Economy - No Passing the Buck

The slowdown in the Indian economy has been the talk of the town recently. Since 2014 the economy has been going at a steady clip of around 6 – 7 percent. For the first time since 2014 the numbers aren’t adding up. The August end figures have been showing rather weak GDP figures. It seems the growth rate has slipped to 5%, a drop of around 1.5 - 2%.

There are a myriad of reasons as to why the economy has faltered. Opinions are divided as to which reasons have been the biggest culprits in pulling down the numbers. While there is no consensus on this, (economists rarely if ever agree on anything to do with the economy)  a few reasons are cited and broadly agreed upon.

The demonetization is showing a belated effect. Liquidity was sucked away, especially from the informal market. The rural sector as well as the grey market for goods suddenly faced a shortage of hard currency. Wages got affected, and that had a cascading effect on demand for products. Then came the disruption of GST. This had an effect on the businesses of small and medium enterprises. Large industries also were affected but the effect on smaller industries with their smaller trade cycles and less reserves, was more. State revenue was disrupted as the system took time to stabilize. GST though a necessary reform, proved to be a disruptor which affected the cash flow in the economy.

Technology is a disruptor. Digital payments coupled with smart phone technology has served to affect the banking infrastructure. ATM machines are being used less since the government started promoting digital payments. Companies which look after the ATM chains have been reporting a reduced use of their vending machines as many now prefer e-wallets.

The bell weather of the economy, the auto industry, has reported a sharp fall in sales. While part of this can be attributed to cyclical demand, experts say, this is also due to ride sharing which is now prevalent among all classes of population and all age groups. People are now less likely to buy a new car as frequent job changes entails movement from one city to another. Also the younger generation is veering away from buying anything. They seem to prefer hiring rather than ownership. So cars and homes are more likely to be hired than bought by this age group.  Hiring assets makes migration for job less cumbersome. A small shift in the preferences of this group has had a significant effect on the economy. While this may be partly responsible for the reduced demand in cars and real estate, reliable data is lacking. Moreover the reduction will be more gradual, not the sudden dip that we see in the current quarter.

Successive governments have gone in for incremental economic reforms rather than the big bang stuff.  A case in point is the sale of Air India. This has been a work in progress for decades now. For any government, this is like trying to hold a tiger by its tail. Politically it is least palatable. Governments do not like to disrupt political equations. These actions reflect on their electoral performance. There are hundreds of loss making PSUs  (Public Sector Undertakings) in India along with Air India which need to be sold off or privatized. But political will is lacking. These PSUs have been a drag on government revenue and the economy as a whole.

What ails the Indian economy? There are a lot of factors. The ones above are just a few of them. External factors like the slowing of the world economy, the self-centered (read protectionist) policies of countries, (globalization is in reverse), the US China trade war, the WTO disputes, all seem to be contributing to the slow down. Inside the country problems like bank management, reduction of bank NPAs, the agricultural loan distress, job creation, all need to be addressed and quickly. The government has a lot on its plate. Some very unpopular decisions will have to be taken. The 5$ trillion carrot is now seen by everyone. For once the government will have to ignore populism and put its house in order. With such a massive mandate, it just cannot pass the buck.

Maharashtra Floods - The Small and Big of it

The floods which have ravaged various Indian cities this monsoon may have brought to the fore some serious lack of planning. However I feel there are two ways to look at this.

It will be very clichéd to say that this is bad urban planning. That is a well known fact.  It goes without saying that our cities have grown  haphazardly.  Being a developing country India is still going through the rigours of labour dynamics. A large work force from the rural areas is migrating to the cities in search of jobs.  This has put a heavy burden on urban infrastructure. The scale of this mass migration was not anticipated by the city authorities.  Thus, lackadaisical implementation of rules led to lot of illegal construction. For e.g.  buildings were constructed in areas reserved for green cover or in case of Mumbai even flood plains were reclaimed. Debris from excavations was dumped into rivers and canals creating obstruction to the flow of water.  This combined onslaught on the city’s capacity to accommodate people has led to this current situation.

Where climate change comes into the picture is the amount of rain fall and its distribution.  IMD(Indian Meteorological Department) statistics at the time of writing this article show that this year the problem is not deficiency but skewed pattern of rain fall received by different states. Maharashtra has received 161 percent excess rainfall this year. Other states like Telangana(148% excess), Karnataka(128%), Gujarat(112%)  shows that this year monsoon has been abnormal, but on the plus side.  The distribution of rain has not been even within the states either.  In Maharashtra some parts of Vidarbha and Marathwada are staring at famines when neighbouring districts are reeling under floods.  This skewed distribution is the result of complex weather phenomena.  But they get highlighted because of excessive rainfall. 

Scientists and experts the world over have been warning about this for years now. Floods in India is not an isolated occurrence. This year China is also reeling under floods. The Typhoon Lekima has wreaked havoc in Zhejiang province with many people having to be moved to safety.   This year in the month of June the UK also witnessed flooding in many parts. In contrast,  dry weather spells have caused massive forest fires in western United States and parts of Asia. Despite advances in AI, predicting weather will get more difficult because the broad set patterns on which the prediction models are based are getting disrupted. 

There are no easy answers to these catastrophes.  For centuries man has been ignoring the warnings given by nature. In fact it will not be an exaggeration  to say that exploitation of resources is inherent to human civilisation.  From extracting resources to polluting, our progress can be measured by looking at how much harm we have caused the planet.

Man will have to change his ways drastically if he is to survive on this planet. Some say it may already be too late.  However assuming that we still have time to correct our ways, some measures will have to be taken immediately. E.g. Burning of fossil fuels, production of industrial chemicals, use of artificial fertilisers in Agriculture, Animal Husbandry(meat industry) has to stop.  New technologies are no less polluting. The internet combined with smart phones contribute significantly to global warming. Every video downloaded and every e-mail sent  adds to the carbon footprint of the user. Statistics show that at the global level, wireless social media now contributes  as much to global warming as the aviation industry.

It is very easy to list out well identified harmful activities of man and tick them off for termination. However millions are employed by these industries.  No economy will sustain heavy disruptions without causing social upheavals. The answer could be gradual change.  Bring in new technology and phase out the old. But we may be running out of time. It takes years for new technology to be invented or even  an old one to be modified.  Even after this, reversing the effects of human abuse on nature will take even longer.

The smaller picture or the limited view of the remedial measures for current disasters would restrict us to mending our ways. Improve lifestyles to suit the environment, recycle as much as you can, reduce your carbon footprint  etc.  But the larger picture would tell us that we are already on borrowed time. As Stephen Hawking said in one of his last interviews, man will have to look at other places to live. Humans can be equated to termites or some voracious pests which attack a tree in the forest. The colony of these insects will systematically devour the tree and consume all the nutrients it has to offer.  After it has been completely exploited the insect colony moves on to the next suitable tree. We are no different from these creatures.  Space exploration is not just for scientific study but also a search for our next tree.  Perhaps these disasters have made us realise that earth has a limited life and resources and sometime in the future we will have to pack our bags and relocate our civilisation.

Kashmir-Article370 - A Paradigm Shift

The government of India abrogated Article 370 which granted special status to Kashmir.

It may not be in the scope of this article to go into the Kashmir imbroglio. With all its twists and turns and sequence of events for over seventy years, it will need to be dealt with in a separate article.  Suffice it to say that Kashmir is disputed territory between India and Pakistan since 1948.

The Kashmir issue was the raison d’etre of Pakistan. Pakistani, especially its Army, has made it a bone of contention immediately after both the countries became independent. It is part of the two nation theory which Pakistan propounded after partition. According to the theory the Muslims in the subcontinent needed a separate nation of their own as it was argued that the Hindus and Muslims could not live together in the then undivided India. Kashmir being a Muslim majority state would naturally accede to Pakistan after partition or so was assumed by Pakistani leaders. The dispute sharpened after India liberated East Pakistan(now Bangladesh) in 1971, after Pakistan carried out genocide on the Bengali people.  The Pakistani army for years has been justifying a disproportionate allocation of resources from the country’s budget on the basis of a perceived threat from India over the Kashmir issue.  This budget helped the army to turn into a business institution. The Pakistani army operates companies,  farms, and other industries. Its officers and staff get cuts from the profits generated by these enterprises.

Now that the Article 370 has been abrogated, the Pakistan army will find it difficult to maintain their modicum of importance. The Article gave special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir within the Indian union. This special status was added to the Indian constitution but not made a formal part of it. The Indian law system did not work in the state. No Indian government institution had any jurisdiction in J&K. The state had its own rules and regulations. No citizen from the rest of India could buy property or open a business or make any investments there. The rule went so far that if a Kashmiri woman married a non Kashmiri she forfeited her family inheritance. Worse, it provided a fertile ground for Pakistan to sow dissention among some of the political class in Kashmir as the Indian government could not implement its laws there. Pakistan used money to influence these so called separatists. The result was that these few people became very rich and influential. They also became untouchables as Indian laws did not apply to them. The special status had become an impediment to development.   

Years of inaction on Kashmir by India and Kashmir’s special status had given the Pakistan’s Military/Intelligence establishment the confidence that their strategy of terror and nuclear blackmail was working. Pakistan should have read the signs early on when India retaliated for the terror strike on Pathankot Air Force Base in 2016 by conducting a Special Forces surgical strike across the LoC(Line of Control).  But Pakistan struck again at Pulwama in Kashmir. Locally executed by Jaish-e-Mohammed, that attack killed about 40 Indian CRPF soldiers. After this the Indian government acted swiftly. It sent an air strike against a major terrorist camp in Balakot in Khyber-Pakhtunwa in mainland Pakistan. This unprecedented retaliation was a huge shock to Pakistan. Most importantly it snuffed out Pakistan’s nuclear bluff forever.

Pakistan ‘s complacency was shattered on August 6^th 2019 when the abrogation of Article 370 and 35(A) took place in the Parliament. For Pakistan the unthinkable had happened. It was clueless as to how to react to this change.  Suddenly its perceived locus standi on Kashmir was completely erased.  The usual  and now predictable knee jerk reactions were seen by a disinterested world.  Pakistan does not have any traction in any of the world forums.  It is in a catch 22 situation. The Military establishment might be tempted to carry out some kind of terror operation in Kashmir, but could risk down gradation by the FATF. The Financial Action Task Force, the world watchdog organization to identify state sponsored terrorism has put it on enhanced watch list. The Asia Pacific Group(APG) of the FATF has found that Pakistan is not compliant on thirty two of the forty points that were to be scrutinized. It has put Pakistan in the APG grey list. If Pakistan gets downgraded by the FATF in Paris in October, it will not qualify for any help from any multilateral lending agency, making its already delicate financial situation even more precarious.

For now it  seems,  all roads lead to a conciliation on Kashmir. However the terror groups also have a history of acting unilaterally. There could be an instance where one of the groups could perpetrate an attack on Kashmir without the Pakistan government’s knowledge. This will leave the Pakistan government in the lurch.

Well, this article cannot be concluded at this point of time as the Kashmir story is still unfolding. There has been heavy troop deployment in the valley at this time and a blackout on all communications has been imposed. Some incidents of stone pelting have been reported.  Rather than speculating it will be prudent to wait. There will be a part two to this article.

Chandrayaan2 & US-Af Talks

The Chandrayaan-2 Mission

The failure of the Chandrayaan-2 mission in the last few minutes before touchdown is a disappointment to say the least. The overall mission and the various maneuvers  were executed with  a clockwork precision.  The Vikram Lander separated  from the Orbiter at the correct time and the descent of Vikram was flawless until may be the lander was about a 100 feet from the surface of the moon. After that the communication with the lander was broken and the it came down in a different area than what was decided.

This just shows how difficult it is to operate in space. It is a inhospitable and unpredictable environment to operate in, whether for man or man-made objects.  Efforts are still on to see if contact can be restored with the Vikram Lander.  Regardless of the success of the mission the attempt was a unique one. All the international space agencies were very appreciative of ISRO’s efforts.  The orbiter is doing its job very well and has also located the Lander as it goes around the moon in its orbit. The orbiter will send data about the moon for the next few years.  The mission cannot be called a failure however the chance to drive the lander on the moon and photograph the lunar surface from up close has been lost as of now. ISRO still has about fourteen days to get in touch with the lander. That’s how long Vikram’s batteries were designed to last.

There is no telling what will happen. Perhaps contact will be established and the mission may resume. The lander may have sustained damage during its hard landing. If so. It will have to be seen if the Pragyan rover will be able to deploy and drive on the lunar surface.  This mission did get a lot of publicity in the world press . This is a start for man’s quest to have a base on the moon. Many more missions are planned by other countries and some have evinced interest in working with ISRO in future exploration missions. This bodes well for ISRO as well as the world scientific community. Collaboration in space and pooling of resources and ideas is what will take space exploration to the next level.

Af Talks Fail – A Political Breather

The failure of talks between the US  and the Taliban has been received differently by different countries. The US will not be looking at this very favourably. President Trump wanted an effective US withdrawal from Afghanistan before the next  presidential elections, it now looks difficult. The attack by the Al-Qaida on US  troops and Afghan civilians have brought to the fore that not everybody is on board in this peace deal. The fact that the elected Afghan government was left out of the deal at the behest of Pakistan and the faction in Taliban that they control, also made other neighboring countries apprehensive of this deal.  It was only meant to be a face saver for the US,  as it wanted to get out of Afghanistan and this was a sort of legitimate back door exit that it was seeking. However Afghanistan is a complicated issue and has been for the last century.  No one has ever been able to get all the warring factions in the country to come to terms with each other.  This is the reason why no country has ever been able to rule Afghanistan ever. The Central Asian as well as South Asian countries were not very enthusiastic about this peace deal. Pakistan was trying to dominate the proceedings as it controls the Taliban and it stood to benefit the most by the US troop withdrawal. The withdrawal would have left Pakistan with an open playing field in Afghanistan as the elected Afghan government had little or no say in the ongoing talks. Pakistan would have called all the shots after the US draw down.  Trump’s domestic compulsions were the only driving force behind the initiative. This suited Pakistan politically as well as strategically. The other Asian countries including India have now heaved a sigh of relief. In India’s case the situation was not good. Pakistan would have directed the Taliban to infiltrate in Kashmir as soon as the US influence in Afghanistan would have waned.  Pakistan was also trying to influence the FATF(Financial Action Task Force) Committee to overlook some of its transgressions regarding support to terrorist factions in Pakistan and outside, in view of its influence in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. The attack on US troops shows that even Pakistan does not wield influence over all the factions of the Taliban. The peace deal would have increased India’s problems in Kashmir manifold. With the situation in a delicate balance after the abrogation of Article 370, India could do without additional Pakistani influence in Afghanistan which could have spilled over in Kashmir. For now at least the situation though fluid is not favouring Pakistan.   There cannot be any complacency as regards the future solution in Afghanistan but the neighborhood and particularly India have got a political breather for now.

Galactic Neighbours

A recent article in the National Geographic magazine about aliens rekindled my interest in the hunt for extraterrestrial life. This topic will always be interesting especially for those who follow space technology and space exploration. Mankind will always be curious to know if he has any neighbors intelligent or otherwise.

The hunt for aliens is not new. Man has been curious about extraterrestrial life since the time he discovered space. Ground based telescopes were the  main weapons in this hunt till the end of the last century. Powerful as they are, they sit beneath layers of earth’s atmosphere. Dust particles, clouds, limit their capability. However all that changed with the launch of the Kepler spacecraft by NASA. This craft carried a telescope which is stationed in space. Thus all the clutter of earth’s atmosphere has been done away with. Since its launch in March 2009 the telescope has helped to discover more than 2000 planets orbiting their stars. Kepler will be replaced by the more powerful and advanced James Webb telescope.

The process of hunting for intelligent life got a boost when SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)  program was started exclusively to hunt for aliens. Various universities and institutions launched SETI programs. But funding has always been an issue and recently NASA was instructed by the Congress to distance itself from SETI and not use valuable funds to search for the so called ‘ little green people’. But SETI is here to stay and would continue its work, funds or no funds.

The aim is to look for planets in the so called ‘Goldilocks’ zone meaning the planets are at the right distance from their sun to nurture life. Too close and they will be too hot to support life, too far away and they will be too cold.

Some conditions need to be satisfied if life is to thrive on any planet. Apart from the distance from its sun which is crucial, scientists say, a process known as abiogenesis has to happen. The chemicals which are needed for life to sustain should be available in the right proportions. I remember the episode of Cosmos in which Carl Sagan stands next to a vessel which contains some murky liquid. He says that the liquid has all the elements or chemicals needed to start life. The essential chemicals are there, but life has not started in the vessel. Abiogenesis is what makes life happen.

That brings us to the next condition, that of time. Life as we know it on earth has taken millions of years to evolve. The ideal conditions have to prevail for that time. Any break means the process of evolution goes back to zero. An interesting observation here is that the distances in space are huge. Light sometimes takes thousands or even million years to reach us from faraway stars or planets. So when we observe distant stars or planets we are essentially looking into their past. There is a possibility that by the time light from a distant planet reaches us, life on it may have evolved further.  

Also the life has to be intelligent enough. They must have evolved enough to have technology which helps them to communicate. For egg. If they have discovered radio waves so much the better. It would indeed be difficult to find a colony of single celled amoebas on some planet say, 50 light years away. Finding a less evolved civilization would be very difficult  but may be not impossible.  

New technology could have a solution to the above problem as well. New sensors on spacecraft slated to be launched in the next decade will be advanced enough to look for telltale signatures of specific gases. As we know, living creatures on earth give out various gases like carbon dioxide, oxygen, methane etc. The advanced sensors will look for these gases in atmospheres surrounding distant planets. These observations will give astronomers vital clues regarding presence of life.    

Scientists are also facing another big hurdle in this endeavor. The sheer number of star systems out there. There are millions of suns with many more millions of planets around them. Then there are planets which are drifters. They are not attached to any star system. Finding life would be like looking for a  needle in a haystack. Only this haystack is really huge.

As we look into the future, the hunt for aliens can only get more interesting. That there is life out there somewhere, is now a given. The odds are stacked against we being alone in the known universe. The scope of this search is increasing exponentially as technology gets more advanced. We just have to keep looking to learn who our neighbors are. Finding them will change us for ever.

Electric Cars - The Real Future?

The recent (2019) announcement by the government about introducing electric vehicles in India on a war footing brings certain questions to the fore. The government has stipulated that all two-wheelers up to 150cc displacement will be made electric by 2025. This constitutes 90% of the two wheeler market. The announcement has resulted in a political thug-a-lug between the government and the industry. The government has set some ambitious targets to tackle greenhouse gases and pollution in general especially after signing the Paris Climate Accord. The manufacturers meanwhile are critical of the government for setting unrealistic targets for the industry. While both have their own compulsions regarding this issue and both have valid reasons for taking their respective stands on this matter, some independent analysis would help in better understanding of the issues at hand.

Electric vehicles do not yet tick all the boxes.  There have been some impressive breakthroughs in this technology. The use of rare earth minerals has singularly been responsible for the current advances in electric propulsion technology.  Storage was a big obstacle in use of electric vehicles. The use of Lithium Ion for e.g. has led the industry to believe that perhaps this technology has the potential to take electric transportation to the next level.

However encouraging the progress, there is no dearth of skeptics willing to point out that the picture is not as rosy as it looks.  In India the auto industry has pointed out that even if current two-wheelers are replaced by electric ones there is hardly any infrastructure in place to cater to this kind of conversion. Charging stations are virtually non-existent in India. Critics have pointed out that rural electrification has still not been completed in India. And even if basic infrastructure has reached the remote areas, there is still a severe shortage of supply. The domestic demand has not been fully met. It is inevitable that frequent electricity supply cuts will affect the acceptance of this technology.

The skeptics have gone a step further. They say that the current technology cannot be called truly clean. Disposing off the spent batteries without polluting the environment is going to be a major challenge. There is no data available about chemical degradation regarding the new technology. Given the charging times and the distance covered per charge, it is inevitable that some kind of battery exchange system will have to be put in place. A vehicle going from A to C may need to charge at point B. The driver could opt for a charged battery from the station in exchange for the discharged one.  This means that the number of batteries will have to be many times more than the number of vehicles on the road.  In the absence of proper disposal methods, we will simply be opting for a new form of pollution in exchange for the old one. The technology is in its infancy. It has to mature and prove itself before the government can commit to it.

The cost of these vehicles is still prohibitively high. In India, Hyundai recently launched an electric car, the  Kona, with a price tag of 25 lac Rupees. A petrol car of comparable size can be had for around 10 lacs.  The argument goes that once mass production starts, the economies of scale will bring down the price. This may not actually happen say the critics. The rare earth materials which are used in these vehicles are not found in extractable concentrations, making them expensive to mine. Countries have already identified the world reserves for these materials and new sources are being looked for. The industry is also looking for less expensive alternatives.

It is predicted that the current electric technology will remain expensive as compared to fossil fuels. Rare earth minerals may not deliver on the promise they have held forth. The time scale given by the Indian government is simply not practical when one considers that all the big manufacturers will have to change their in-house production techniques. New training will have to be imparted. Downstream conversion (suppliers) be given time to consolidate. This cannot be rushed.

One more hurdle particularly in case of India stems from low vehicle penetration. There are about 30 vehicles per 1000 people according to a 2015 report by Earnest & Young. That means roughly 3% of the population owns a vehicle of any kind. Countries in Western Europe have a penetration of 700 -800 vehicles per 1000 individuals. The potential in the Indian market is huge. However, even with such low penetration the traffic congestion in our cities is getting difficult, to say the least. If more people are to buy cars in the future, this can only get worse. That electric vehicles will be less polluting is besides the point. Our cities simply cannot accommodate more cars than what we find on the road today. The answer may not be personal transportation but an efficient public transport system.      

While it is not the aim of this article to sound pessimistic about the new technology, it is definitely to make the reader aware of the issues involved. We need to be aware of all the advantages the new technology offers, as also try to anticipate the challenges it will present.  India, meaning the government, the industry and the general public will do well to weigh all the pros and cons before putting the charging cord into the socket.

Chinese Politics - The Achilles Heel

The Hong Kong protests over the Extradition Bill have been going on for more than two months now and do not show any signs of abating. The people are aware that if they allow the draconian rules of the Chinese communist Party to be implemented on the Hong Kong people, the rules will gradually be tweaked and made more rigorous until Hong Kong completely loses its autonomous status. The people seemingly have seen through this game plan of the Chinese government.  This salami slicing tactic has been used by the Chinese in other situations to gain an upper hand in matters that affect China.

Just as Hong Kong,  Chinese persecution is also amply evident in the western Xinjiang province. Here the population is mainly Uighur Muslims of Turkish descent. China is systematically carrying out a program in which the Muslims are put into ‘re-education camps’ to make them ‘better citizens’. The Chinese government does not believe in having diversity in its population regarding religion or beliefs. Diversity always creates a sense of identity among different communities. This province has long been a hotbed of discord between the authorities and the ethnic people. Anti-China sentiments have found voice here. Chinese authorities accuse the Uighurs of terrorism. The re-education here means the detained people have to renounce their faith, criticize it, learn Mandarin etc. The Muslims have faced a steady persecution and their religious freedom has all but vanished of late. 

China enjoyed three decades of unbroken economic growth on the back of reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping. But during the last few years the world demand for its products has reduced amid a general global economic slowdown. This has badly affected Chinese exports and thus the economy.  Chinese laborers are losing jobs which has created some unrest among the people. The trade war with the USA could not have come at a worse time. China is facing headwinds on all fronts.  Their companies  are losing business on charges of unfair business practices and spying for the Chinese government.  Case in point, Huawei the Chinese telecom giant is being banned from participating in telecom projects in many countries.  

Matters may not come to a  head just yet, but it is clear that China is not going to find the going so easy in the future.  There is also a chance that the massive protests that erupted in Hong Kong may find resonance elsewhere in China. The logical progression of this movement if not handled tactfully, could be worse. Hong Kong could ask for complete independence. 

The President of China is a dictator for life. It is said, only Mao Zedong enjoyed the power that President Xi Jinping has concentrated in himself. This concentration skews the political system and destabilizes it. History has shown that too much concentration of political power makes the system inherently weak. The old adage ‘absolute power corrupts absolutely’ could be applicable here.

How this story will play out is anybody’s guess.  China’s deficit is said to be more than 230% of its GDP. It was predicted that the Chinese economy will collapse under this huge debt. But the authorities have managed to keep the economy from sliding down.  The predicted hard landing has not materialized  yet, much to the chagrin of economic soothsayers. The growth rate has slowed, but not to the extent where the people feel the pinch.  China enjoyed continuous economic growth for three decades therefore the current working population has never experienced a slowdown. The government will find it hard to shield the people from this shock. 

Being in a single party dictatorship, the Chinese people do not have the option to electorally throw out a non performing government and vote  in a new one.  Protesting is not an option as the Communist Party does not allow that freedom either. This creates a potent situation for a revolution. The only option for the people is to overthrow the government physically.  Built in resilience allows a democratic system  to hold elections, change the leadership and continue.  No dictatorship allows for this. This is the real Achilles heel. There is no safety valve  to vent people’s angst and frustrations.  If push comes to shove and the balloon goes up, China will need a more robust political system to tide it over the crisis. 

Manufacturing in Space-will be Routine

The SpaceX company owned by Elon Musk has been in the news for achieving certain milestones in space travel.

The company has been in the news time and again sometimes for its success and at times for failures. But it has consistently delivered on some of the endeavors it undertook. Their reusable rocket which can be sent into space and be recovered to be used again, is I feel, a milestone in space travel.  There are of course other companies and non-governmental entities who are also into developing cheap technology for space exploration. The space industry is destined to grow by leaps and bounds as new entrants come into the market. The main reason for this is that much of our resources in the future will come from outer and inner space. Man has already started exploring some near earth asteroids.

A recent NASA call for ideas on how to tackle the problem of moving asteroids in space resulted in the agency receiving more than four hundred responses from all over the world. There is no dearth of ideas out there if exploration starts, And start it will have to, as space being the final frontier is already on the radar of commercial private companies who want to exploit the seemingly abundance of resources to be found in space.

Why are more and more countries developing their own space programs? The answer is simple. Space exploration has some glamour and prestige attached to it. A country having its own space exploration program will always be known to have mastered technology to a considerable level. NASA is known as the premier organization to go to for hi-tech rocket science and space craft.  However countries like India, Israel, Japan and China are also rapidly scaling up their programs to be in the race for exploration. The real word that needs to be used here is ‘exploitation’. Man has realized that the much needed  raw material  for our industry in the future will have to come from space. One may say that this will take a long time and that man just does not have the capability to get the job done given the current level of technology. Also there is the question of money. Space exploration is very expensive today. Raw material from space is too expensive to use effectively today. However we are underestimating the ingenuity of man as well as his hunger(greed?) for resources to keep the world economy moving.

If there is an announcement by the space exploration agency of any nation that they have definitely found (for e.g.)some deposits much needed by industry on earth,  on some nearby asteroid, there would be an immediate rush from amongst the industry to see how it could be exploited economically. Laws, rules and regulations regarding space mining would be framed in no time at all. Money would be invested in developing specific technology to mine and process the ore. It would be the Wild West all over again, only this time it will be in space.

In the future as I see it, this industry (space exploration) will loose all its glamour and will be just another industry like Real Estate or Finance. Exploiting resources in outer space will mean establishing colonies in space or on the Moon or Mars.  (recall the movie Total Recall). Commuting to these colonies will become routine. It will be as attractive as a commute to an off shore drilling platform today. The weekly, monthly commute or yearly journey to and from nearby asteroids or space factories would become routine.  

Some asteroids or space stations could be turned into holiday resorts. We already see this happening. Today only a few billionaires  on the planet can afford a trip in space. But with time this will be cheap enough to be done routinely. The common man will do it at least a few times in his life in the near future. In the far future some people may see earth rarely. They may spend most of their working life away from earth and an incentivized retirement as well. Governments may ask people not to crowd the earth and pay extra pension to those who choose to settle on an asteroid or a space station in their retirement.

This industry like most industry today will be controlled by private players.  Global integration of this industry into the world economy would be a priority for the investors. Thus it will not take long for the space industry to loose its glamour quotient and its exclusiveness to the humdrum of daily economic grind. 

US - Russia The Great Game

Not every piece of news is interesting to us.  But for some time now there has been a political storm going on in the US about Russian interference in American elections. This is nothing new. Nations and have been interfering in each other’s internal affairs for centuries. History is replete with such examples.  The only thing that has changed is technology.  In the earlier days  there used to be spies and agents which went into the enemy kingdom and spread disinformation and gathered information. While spies have not become entirely redundant, computers have taken over some of this work. For spreading disinformation or false news or rumors there is social media.  What is being said by the investigators in US is that a systematic campaign was launched by the Russians to sway public opinion in the US probably more than a year ahead of the general elections in the US.  Trump’s victory is attributed partially to this social media campaign. While opinion is divided as to how effective was this campaign, there is no denying  the fact that it was deliberately undertaken and designed to take advantage of the deep penetration of social media in the American cultural fabric. This can be said for all countries today .

In the modern age of instant communication the goal post has shifted in the realm of international relations. Spying and subterfuge in the 20^th century was known as the Great Game. Countries tried to learn each other’s secrets and spread disinformation.  This Russian campaign is nothing but a technological progression of the Great Game.

Our traditional understanding of the concept of a superpower is, it has a strong military, is well endowed with natural resources, is technologically advanced and as a consequence can wield an influence over other nations.  But electronic media has now become the soft underbelly of this otherwise powerful and impregnable nation.  All the military might of the a country can be rendered useless  if an enemy nation can penetrate or control its political and economic lifelines  using electronics and software.  A case in point is the recent Florida school shootout. It was noticed that after  the shooting  American people began to demand laws for gun control. This narrative was taken up quickly by the Twitter handles which were identified by the state authorities as run by Russians. The controllers quickly hijacked the narrative and gave it the direction/color that they wanted. And there are many such social media interventions that gradually with sustained pressure campaigns tend to veer public opinion to the desired point of view. 

Huawei, the Chinese telecom company is facing a problem which has originated from these concerns. This company, like all Chinese private companies, has to tow the line of the communist party. Huawei is suspected of using its technology to spy on client countries. The communication systems that it operates in countries across the world is said to have embedded spyware designed to secretly gather data for use by the Chinese government . This has sparked global concern and many countries are thinking of banning the company from their markets.

Traditionally nations states were concerned with an enemy attacking and destroying their own country using military strength. Not any more. No nation today is keen on taking over another nation politically. It’s a minefield. Physical occupation of the enemy nation is less attractive now. The aim is to use technology combined with blackmail to penetrate the social and economic fabric of the victim country and make it tow your line.

Cyber space is the new battlefield. Military might will be passé. Defense  infrastructure and communications have become increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks. Tanks, warplanes and ships will no longer guarantee the protection of a country.

As far as the balance of power among nations is concerned, size will not matter.  In future the David can beat the Goliath.

Robotic Process Automation - A Disruptor

Sometimes change comes into our lives in subtle ways. What looks innocuous at times has the potential to cause revolutionary change or disruptions in the order of the world.

RPA (Robotic Process Automation) is one such process which has the potential to make us relook at the way we do our work. RPA is  the use of software along with artificial intelligence to automate high volume repetitive tasks. To give an example, Scrutinizing resumes from hundreds of applicants and categorizing them according to qualifications, experience and skill is one such task which humans are doing today. This is a repetitive task which has the potential to be automated. A robot when programmed to do this same task will do it faster and without errors as it is found. Robots do not make mistakes, nor does a robot suffer from fatigue which reduces human efficiency.

RPA is a logical progression of process automation which gave us the robots doing all the repetitive and risky tasks on a assembly line. Welding, handling heavy equipment like pneumatic tools. Every industry today needs to handle some kind of repetitive task. In the financial services industry companies can use RPA for foreign exchange payments by keeping track of daily exchange rates, opening and closing of accounts etc. The healthcare industry can use RPA for maintaining patient records, This technology has been found to be most suitable for the BPO(Business Process Outsourcing) industry where a lot of repetitive jobs are done. RPA software robots are said to be 50 percent cheaper than an offshore worker. This is significant considering that a lot of BPO jobs today are outsourced from high cost economies to places where labor is cheap.

RPA technology mimics humans closely. Based on the kind of tasks performed, the technology is roughly divided into three categories. Robots (Bots) do these tasks.  The very basic tasks which just need some rules to be followed  is done by Probots. (egg. separating male and female applications). Knowbots are used for tasks which require a little more intelligence like collecting similar entities in different data and write a new database.  Then there are Chatbots which use voice in real time. These robots use NLP (Natural Language Processing) and other high level  algorithms to talk with customers and solve repeated queries. The good thing about RPA technology is that it sits on top of the basic IT infrastructure of any company. It is not an integral part of it. This makes it very cost effective as the company does not need to change or modify any systems in order to implement the automation. Most often it just replaces the current doer of the task, namely, the human entity.

However like all technologies there is a downside to this as well. A recent KPMG report  said that rapidly rising cost of labor is making the whole BPO option unviable. With drastic reduction in processing costs due to RPA technology, the very logic of outsourcing this work to a BPO company is being questioned. With reduced costs, it is argued,  that the companies themselves will now be able to do this work in-house without spending too much. Also since technology is never static, the robots will get more intelligent. This will have a huge impact on the labor market worldwide. Human labor will find itself being replaced by intelligent robots in all spheres of human activity.  There is supposed to be a upside to this disruption. Though automation software is expected to replace up to 140 million full-time employees worldwide by 2025, many high-quality jobs will be created for those who maintain and improve RPA software. This will require reskilling of huge chunk of  the displaced labor force. However, question is how many of the displaced workers will have the capacity to learn the new skills. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning may not be everyone’s cup of tea. Whichever way we look at it,  RPA is here to stay. It can only grow from here. There is no going back. Industry and labor will have to adapt itself to this new technology.

Like most human innovations Robotic Process Outsourcing could be a mixed blessing. It has the potential to revolutionize the industry by reducing costs and increasing efficiencies, but also raise new questions regarding displacement of labor and the problems it entails.

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Mars Settlement- with a Difference

With the race for Mars landing heating up there is a buzz about the prospects of the first settlers who will leave  for the red planet. The first human landing is at least more than a decade away yet,   but space agencies of leading nations are already planning the next step, that is sustenance.  Landing on Mars is one thing. Surviving on the planet would be something else. 

That the human landing on Mars will be a momentous occasion is to say the least. It will change the way we look at ourselves. Humans will become space farers in the true sense. Man has already been to the Moon.  But Mars is a planet in our Solar System.  Moreover, Mars is more suitable for colonization as its mineral composition is richer than that of the Moon and it has an atmosphere.

However when one thinks about new a  colony one would expect everything to be new.  Man will start on Mars with a clean slate. This I feel will be an opportunity for us as humans to reinvent ourselves.

Human civilization on earth has made rapid progress in a relatively short time. Our world is not a perfect one. If we as humans could do away with some of our civilizational shortcomings we would be so much better off.  That opportunity will be presented by Mars

Earthly politics can be avoided when we go to Mars. A single colony for all nations can be set up].  When man first reached the South Pole there could have been a single common research station established, but political rivalry among countries did not permit that. Mars could be different. Political rivalry can be passé on Mars.

All aspects of human life on earth should be open to debate especially before starting a new civilization on a new planet.  We can relook the way our cities are planned and administered , the way we handle pollution, transportation and other aspects of our daily urban life.  As we are starting a new colony, we have an opportunity to look at these issues afresh and address some of their lacunae.

We could have different systems to run our day to day lives there.  Thinking out of the box has to be the norm here.  E.g. we can explore if we can do away with money on Mars, have an alternative system for exchange of legal tender.

The aim here is not to present a system per se, but to suggest that since we  are making a new beginning, we may start differently  and try to avoid the some of the drawbacks which we see in our world today.  Of course not all new systems we implement on Mars are going to be foolproof. Human designed systems seldom are. But we would have broken new ground and taken an important step for making our civilization more evolved. 

In saying this it is assumed that humans will be more as a community when they land on Mars.  The prejudices that plague us on earth will not be carried to Mars. For e.g.  differences in race, religion, color or even nationalities could be abolished altogether in the new colonies. Humans may not take to the new ways easily. New rules will have to be put in place. Entry to Mars could be made conditional to accepting these rules.  Noncompliance will invite deportation back to earth.  Anybody leaving for Mars will go with a different mindset. Our fundamental thinking will have to change.  As an evolving species, we owe it to ourselves to at least make the effort.

Technological challenges will also have to be overcome.  A start in this direction has already been made.  Designing shelters, life support systems , food supply  and other human needs are being looked into. An experiment named the Biosphere2 was undertaken some time back by NASA  in which humans (volunteers) were tested.  Biosphere 1 is the earth, hence the name Biosphere2.  The volunteers were locked in a closed dome, cut off from the rest of the world for one year. They were subjected to the same conditions that will be faced by the astronauts on their journey to Mars and their stay on the planet. This included living in confined spaces for long periods, growing your own food in a closed environment, recycling and waste disposal etc.  An experiment like the Biosphere 2 could be undertaken to test social and psychological parameters.  AI and Machine Learning can be used to analyze the long journey and settlement on Mars.

The human challenges in this venture will be just as difficult to overcome as the technical ones. It is inevitable that human traits will be carried to Mars. That cannot be helped, but as a community we should try and leave behind some of our unwanted civilizational baggage.  Leaving earth, humans have a chance  to become a different and better race altogether.

Flight Safety - The Future

The recent tragedy involving Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 brings many questions regarding flight safety to the fore. The plane travelling from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing crashed in the Indian Ocean .  

A six month long intensive search of the entire area by the navies of many countries in the region did not yield any clue, let alone debris of the plane.  Airline travel is the safest among all modes of transport. Statistics proves this. You are more likely to die in a car accident than in a plane crash. However whenever a plane crash happens it attracts immediate world attention as the  loss of life is total and immediate.

 However new international safety standards are coming into force which will make it more simple to track a plane on its journey.  Satellite tracking systems are being developed which will continuously track a plane once its airbourne all the way till it reaches its destination. Today a plane travelling over the ocean  is off the ground radar screen. The crew reports to the assigned ground station of their position.

A new constellation of satellites will be in place by the end of next year.  These will be able to track a plane throughout its flight. The plane will carry transponders which will relay a signal to the nearest satellite. This will give all the flight parameters like course, speed, altitude etc.  The signal will be relayed every 15 minutes.  It is observed that this interval will give the searchers (in case of a crash) an area of 100 square miles.  This will make the search more manageable. The  MH370 search covered nearly a quarter of the Indian Ocean.

Other flight safety standards are coming into force from 2021. The push is in response to the MH370 disaster. The new (ICAO) International Civil Aviation Organization rules will require a plane crew to report their position every minute. This reporting is currently done by the pilots manually. But it will soon be made automatic . Thus a satellite will be able to track a plane as soon as it leaves the tarmac. The entire flight path of the plane will be available for records in real time.

It will take some time for the changes to kick in as these systems will cost money. And airlines will have to be given time to adjust the costs.  The new planes will come with the navigation systems installed, but the older ones will need to be upgraded.  As the effective life of an airliner is about 20 years, it will take some time for all airlines in the world to convert to the new system.

However there is no doubt that the new safety standards will definitely make air travel a lot safer.

Aliens- First Contact

When we think of alien civilizations, the first thing that comes to mind are weird looking  people who are bent upon annihilating us. Some of the fare dished out by Hollywood has left  an imprint on our minds that does not favor aliens. But we also have to consider other possibilities. The alien civilization may be benign or even friendly. After all if we consider our attitude (read terrestrial humans) we will be more inclined to greet new arrivals with curiosity rather than animosity. We may fight among ourselves and show our violent nature from time to time. However any visitors from outer space will not be subjected to the same treatment. Man on earth will first try to establish contact with any new beings that he comes across. After all it will be the most important moment for human kind. Our cultural fabric which includes history, religion, language, science etc. will forever be altered. After the  confirmed first contact, mankind will never be the same again. This applies only to intelligent life, not microbes or single cell organisms! Even these lowly beings could be game changers for us.

There are many scenarios which have been painted. Writers, scientists have tried to imagine how the first contact with aliens would be made. Considering the immense distances involved radio contact seems to be the most probable. This is why every time a garbled radio signal is received from outer space, it gets a lot of publicity. Supercomputers then run it past various AI algorithms to see if there is any message in it.

Take for egg. the nearest Star system to our Solar System, the Alpha Centauri. This Star system is about 4.37 light years away from us. In perspective it is 270000 times the distance from the earth to the sun. It is not possible for man to reach the system using current technology. It would be quicker and cheaper to send radio messages to the star system to see if anybody sends a  reply.

Huge distances between galaxies means that any alien civilization getting in touch with us or vice versa would do so by using radio waves. The first difficulty would be to identify the message from the background clutter in the universe. Then would come the task of deciphering/understanding what is being communicated. In fact if the two civilizations are hundreds of light years away from each other, we would be communicating with each other by radio for a long time before any one of the civilization develops the technology to undertake the journey physically.  This is assuming the other civilization is on a comparable level as regards their scientific progress.  If the development gap is too large (egg. If they have not invented radio yet) then the possibility of contacting them becomes very small.

Communication technology on earth is now sufficiently advanced to have a very close and comprehensive engagement with any aliens. Take for instance smart phone communication. Astronauts are now tweeting and surfing the internet from the ISS (International Space Station). The same communications can be extended to outer space with some time lag thrown in.  Exchange of videos, images, written and spoken word could start once the language/communication barrier is overcome.  We could learn a whole lot about the aliens before we meet up.

But it is not just intelligent beings we should be concerned with. We could come across a small living organism on some other planet or asteroid. It would still be a first contact albeit a less exciting one for the general public. Scientists would still be hugely excited.

In case of intelligent, civilizations earthlings are hoping that we make the first contact because our history has shown that if two civilizations meet then the one which has taken the initiative to venturing out first is usually the one which is superior. The other one gets subjugated or destroyed.

One could fill a lot many pages writing about the various possibilities. However it goes without saying that the first contact whenever and however it is made, would be a game changer for our civilization and perhaps for the other side as well.