Blog Page-one

21^st Century Propaganda Wars 

Sanctions, a Mixed Bag

The Great Leap Forward or Status Quo?

Indigenous Defence Industry – The coming boom

Russia – Ukraine war, a European problem

The Shifting Balance of Power

Disruptions and the Emerging World Order

The Ukraine crisis and the Ripple Effect

Times they are a changin'

The New Growth Story

Asia in Flux

RCEP -To sign or not to sign

India  - Ticking all the Boxes

Fuel for the future

Needed - A change in the Political System

Continued... 

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21st Century Propaganda Wars

 

The hue and cry in the Muslim world over the Nupur Sharma incident is an excellent example of how modern propaganda machines make a mountain out of a mole hill.

A harmless debate on an obscure TV channel was picked up five days later and blown up to look as though the Muslim world was under threat. Not that it made any difference to anybody in India, but the sudden reaction from the Middle East was surprising to say the least. There were the usual counter arguments and denials.

The incident shows the sophistication the in the use of the media and the careful cultivation of any narrative which the authorities (here, the Qatari government) wish to promote. The reach of the media is every drawing room in the world so the potential is enormous.  Experts are saying the Al Jazeera channel used this incident to promote its own narrative to create a propaganda war. The government recovered fast and there were rebuttals to the OIC and the others who were prominently trying to foment trouble.

Two days later the hue and cry are dying down. Protests by Muslims in India still continue. This has always happened post a controversial incident. It will not be wrong to say that money changes hands and vested interests try to run their narratives. Iran and other countries have cut down on their rhetoric and deleted their tweets calling for investigations and arrests. This storm in a teacup is slowly dissipating. What it has highlighted is the need for a counter narrative to be promoted vigorously against such campaigns. Experts believe that India should have its own communication setup on a global scale. Something on the lines of the BBC, CNN or the Global Times. 

Propaganda wars have become subtle and sophisticated. This is the Age of the Internet and the information superhighway. One cannot decipher where fact ends and fiction begins. 

The irony of the situation is that all those countries criticizing India are themselves serial violators of human rights. Moreover, nobody in the Muslim world has shown the courage to highlight the plight of Uighur Muslims in China..

Most of the countries which matter have their own mouthpiece or a propaganda arm which can run narrative campaigns as and when required at the bidding of the government. In hindsight India should have established a dedicated publicity channel long back. It is never too late to start. 

Sanctions - A Mixed bag

 Whenever the world goes through a political crisis perpetrated by any country the inevitable consequences of suffering and destruction follow. But there is another consequence which follows, and that is imposition of sanctions. Sanctions are a prerogative of the rich countries which can deny the poor ones something that is essential to them. It could be finance, market access, trade access, currency exchange facilities, the list is long.

There are many instances where nations have faced sanctions for years due to getting into the bad books of a rich country’s government. The US is the principal mover and shaker in this domain. Europe has been somewhat reluctant to impose sanctions on countries. Europe has far less political, military and financial clout than the US and Europeans do not like to upset their own apple cart which could possibly lead to reduced trade with the consequent pains that follow.

Whether sanctions have worked or not is a moot point. It has been a mixed bag so far. A good example would be Iran. After the death of the pro-US Shah of Iran, the Iranian government’s wish to acquire nuclear technology especially after the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini did not help matters. A typical Islamic fundamentalist regime came into being and Iran has been under US sanctions for more thirty years for one reason or the other. Even so the US objective has still not been achieved. Iran has found ways to circumvent the sanctions. Experts say it has developed a vast network of clandestine money laundering agencies which enable it to avoid the legitimate and monitored international banking system.  This network has rendered some of the sanctions ineffective.

India also has been under sanctions for various reasons. After the nuclear tests of 1974 and 1998, sanctions kicked in and there was technology denial by the Americans. Most of Europe followed suit with the exception of France. But apart from delaying acquisition of some crucial military and space technology, it did not deter India from achieving its goal, which was to demonstrate nuclear deterrence against China. In fact sanctions have forced India to become more self-reliant in certain advanced technologies.

Similarly, the on-going Russia -Ukraine conflict has also triggered sanctions against Russia. But European dependence on Russian oil and gas has prevented a consensus from being achieved on banning Russian energy products. Hungary and some other countries have objections to banning Russian oil completely. Moreover, the Russian demand to pay in Rubles is now being met by most of the European countries.  Besides restricting purchase of oil, it will be more difficult for Europe to switch from Russian gas due to technical and economic reasons.

In this interdependent world room to wriggle and lessen the effects of the sanctions can always be found as the current Russia – Ukraine conflict demonstrates. There is some daylight between nations of the EU. Their oil purchase policies are not fully aligned

Also, today, there are too many sanctions on too many countries in the world. Iran, Venezuela and Russia are under sanctions. Their oil supplies have been severely curtailed, which has played havoc with oil prices.

One other fallout of this war which has not attracted much attention is the arms supplies to Ukraine.  European and American arms manufacturers and merchants are making billions by selling arms to their governments which are then given away to Ukraine. So sanctions or no sanctions, somebody has already started making money on this war.

While Russia is definitely feeling the bite of the sanctions, it is also one of the largest producers of food grains (wheat) , and energy (oil and gas) which has given it considerable leverage over Europe. The sanctions are not biting hard enough to make Russia change its policies. Russia is also luring countries with discounted oil.  This conflict as a result could drag on for a long time.

Sanctions are now perceived an outdated instrument of foreign policy to get perceived wayward countries to fall in line. There is also collateral damage to other countries which could be avoided. A revisit is urgently needed.