Keep to the Golden Mean

 

Since the early and mid-seventies man realized that his progress was coming at a cost. Till then it was not realized that all the scientific and technological progress that was being achieved was coming at a cost. Nature was being harmed irreversibly. But once the scientific community confirmed this, the politicians immediately jumped on this ecological bandwagon and started driving it themselves.

It became necessary to be an environmentalist whether you believed in that sort of a thing. These politicians profited from some of the most polluting industries in the world but kept up a public image which made them champion environmentalists.

The environmental bandwagon has been running since then. Any leader in any corner of the world was forced to support the cause of nature conservation whether he or she believed in it or not.

There was no dearth of activists in the three decades till the start of the new century. Environmental protection was a cause which received world-wide support from the governments and the people. It was the thing to do. But world di not take any drastic steps to curb environmental pollution. This can be understood because it was understood that curbing pollution had a direct bearing on people’s incomes.  

Fast forward to the decade of 2010s onwards. Greta Thunberg a Swedish girl appeared out of nowhere and began to rave about the damage done to the environment by the earlier generations, especially politicians. She was welcomed as if she were a messiah sent to wake up mankind from its slumbers. Naturally, the politicians and the world leaders had to pay attention, and humor her because she gained popularity very quickly.

Her forceful rhetoric and direct approach was new to the people and won her a huge following. Greta began to advise governments and even experts as to how to run their economies. There were sane voices of experts and other people who advised that whatever she was saying was not practical. But their voices were drowned in the noise that was created by Greta Thunberg’s campaigns.

When the people start following a cult the politician and leaders have to follow suit. Greta Thunberg began to call out industries like fracking, the oil industry, thermal plants and demanded that they be shut down to cut down on pollution. Such drastic measures impact adversely directly on the economy of any country. But some political leaders tried to implement them, with disastrous consequences. There were job losses and disinvestment in these industries. These short sighted measures undertaken on the words of a girl touted as a messiah could not be implemented for long.

Today Greta Thunberg is not heard anywhere. The world could not afford her anger.

What the world needs is a gradual shift towards more sustainable exploitation and consumption of resources. Drastic measures will not work without causing disruptions and will only create more problems. The cure cannot be worse than the disease. 

Pelosi Visit – More China Tantrums

 

The recent visit of Nancy Pelosi, the American House Speaker to Taiwan has created storm in a teacup. This is because China, had thrown the hat in the ring by declaring that they will shoot down the delegation. But since then China is in no mood to cross the threshold which it seems to have set for itself. China is rattling the bars around the Air Defense Zone of Taiwan.

The Chinese Navy has surrounded the island and is making threatening gestures by conduction live fire drills which would suggest they are looking at blockading Taiwanese ports. This is easier said than done. China is as much dependent on semiconductor chips made by Taiwan as the rest of the world. Blockading Taiwanese ports will create a shortage of chips globally and could turn world opinion against China. Meanwhile China has banned imports of some agricultural produce and other inconsequential items from Taiwan.

The Chinese threats over the Pelosi visit was a part of the scaremongering which the CCP leadership engaged in hoping the US would be deterred. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping will try for an unprecedented third term as a Premier later this year. With the Chinese economy underperforming badly, and the Zero-Covid policy not delivering, the political leadership had to show something positive to the people. National fervor seemed to be a way out. Belligerence against Taiwan is probably a smokescreen to divert attention from domestic issues.  

Unfortunately the US also had domestic and international compulsions to not give in to the Chinese demands. Canceling the Pelosi visit would have sent a wrong message to the Quad, AUKUS, the Five Eyes and NATO and its Asian allies.

The most important takeaway in this incident is that China overestimated its influence in Asia and the world. Thus, now the Chinese leadership (meaning, mainly the dictator) is now engaged in military brinkmanship and posturing. This was also evident during the Doklam crisis against India when China’s behavior was described by a retired US general as that of a teenager throwing tantrums.

China will not be able to gobble up Taiwan so easily. Experts have cited some reasons for this. The Taiwan Strait is about one hundred miles across. Any invading army crossing this water will be greatly vulnerable to defensive fire. Secondly, the PLA has not fired a shot in anger since 1979, when they fought against Vietnam and came off worse. They are not trained for battle. Thirdly, the PLA is made up of conscripts recruited for a period of two years and are not wholly committed to the defense forces. Their reliability under pressure in a real war is suspect. Last but not the least the reliability of Chinese equipment is not known. The CCP leadership does not have the confidence to commit its forces in any war.

Being a dictatorship, it is difficult to distinguish between the national ego and that of the leadership. The Chinese people have no say in how their country is run. It is the Chinese leadership and mainly Xi Jinping who has lost face in this incident. There can be a possibility of Xi Jinping going to war if the Chinese economic situation worsens and Xi needs to take some extreme step to divert people's attention from the domestic turmoil. 

On the other hand, however many top officials of the CCP are worried that a war with Taiwan may not go down well with the European Union, as many of them have bank accounts in European countries  including Switzerland.  

How this pans out will have to be seen. China does not have many options to recover its lost face. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese leadership gets out of this one.

The James Webb Space Telescope – Window into the past

 

The recent deployment of the JWST has caused a lot of excitement among the astronomers and space scientists as well as space observers. The JWST marks the beginning of an era of space exploration which promises to change our understanding of the universe.

The JWST is designed to observe the universe in the infrared spectrum. With its advanced instruments, it is expected to help observe objects which are very distant and therefore very faint, that the Hubble was not able to detect. This program is led by NASA, with support from the ESA (European Space Agency) and the CSA (Canadian Space Agency). The cost of the telescope is about $ 10b.

The deployment of the telescope was a controlled ballet. The unfolding of the Sunshield, the Mirror Segments, Checking of the Instrument Mode, Calibration, and so on. On July 12^th the first images were received from the instrument and it stunned the world. What this instrument promises is not comparable to whatever was observed earlier by the Hubble or any other instrument.

Scientists expect to use the JWST to look into the past of the universe. Its formation after the Big Bang. Observe distant galaxies, identify habitable planets, emissions from black holes, Supernovas and other celestial bodies and even look for aliens.

This telescope can see objects that are 13.6 billion lightyears away. If we calculate the time taken by light from these objects to reach the earth, it gives scientists a window into the past of the universe. In its first week itself, the telescope has helped to observe galaxies which are 100 million years older than anything observed earlier, which is a record. This telescope is going to create a new generation of science.

The JWST has observed galaxy clusters in which galaxies are recovering from collision with other galaxies. That means scientists are now able see the formation of the universe as it happened after the Big Bang. This is unprecedented.

By observing the wavelength of light emitted from distant stars and planets scientists are able to learn their chemical composition. This tells them if an orbiting planet has oxygen, carbon or other elements to support life.

There is no doubt that the JWST is going to push the boundaries of space exploration. It will help to unlock the secrets of the universe as never before and throw up surprises very often. 

The James Webb Space Telescope – Window into the past

The changing world order – No predictions

The pandemic has caused unprecedented havoc in the world. The recovery is going to take years to get back on track. In fact, the world is still suffering from attacks by new virus variants. Add to this the crisis brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Joe Biden had said very recently that a new world order is emerging and it will be led by America. But that may not be the case. If the order is changing, then, it will be difficult to predict which countries will emerge as the new leaders. Of course, whatever the order, the USA may be included somewhere in the pecking order, given its size and strength. However that is not guaranteed.

The sanctions on Russia are not working. This is forcing the West to put evermore strict restrictions on that country. Local currency trade has already started between Russia and India and China. There is also talk of trying to find a way to circumvent the SWIFT system for currency transactions. Both these actions will undermine the importance of the dollar.

Nobody is willing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine as it might provoke an escalation.   

Military and economic strengths will remain important for countries for the foreseeable future. However, prevailing circumstances will decide what freedom countries will have to take actions on others. Today countries like India are not towing the western line on the Russia – Ukraine war as regards purchase of oil. Countries like India can have their way because they are a bulwark against China which The US and Europe view as the next major enemy. Russia is viewed as a declining power as of now.

National interest will be paramount in the new order. This was a prerogative of the West. However, many countries have now begun to prioritize their national interest even if it means going against the dictates of the powerful nations.  

Geopolitics will become more complex as national interests of countries clash and overlap at the same time.

Though predicting anything here would be hazardous, a few indications can be read and interpreted. The West has begun to wean itself away from China. China may not remain the factory of the world in the near future. Supply chains are being diversified. Some countries like Germany, Italy were reluctant to delink from China. But the Russia -Ukraine war has changed that. China gas a debt crisis starting with its real estate sector which could cause an economic meltdown. Moreover, its zero covid policy is playing havoc with the economy.

All countries are manipulating and adjusting to the new challenges being thrown up by the events on a daily basis. Russia's Gazprom has shut down the Nord Stream one gas pipeline which supplies gas to Germany- the largest consumer- for maintenance. But  no one knows if Russia will start gas supplies any time soon. Hungary has already declared a gas emergency.

Globalization will continue, because it provides economies of scale, making products cheaper and providing jobs across the world. The geopolitical and economic pointers indicate that some of the developing countries in the world will gain ascendency in the scheme of things. If that happens, we will see a very different world in the not too distant future.

Blog Page-one

21^st Century Propaganda Wars 

Sanctions, a Mixed Bag

The Great Leap Forward or Status Quo?

Indigenous Defence Industry – The coming boom

Russia – Ukraine war, a European problem

The Shifting Balance of Power

Disruptions and the Emerging World Order

The Ukraine crisis and the Ripple Effect

Times they are a changin'

The New Growth Story

Asia in Flux

RCEP -To sign or not to sign

India  - Ticking all the Boxes

Fuel for the future

Needed - A change in the Political System

Continued... 

Previous page

21st Century Propaganda Wars

 

The hue and cry in the Muslim world over the Nupur Sharma incident is an excellent example of how modern propaganda machines make a mountain out of a mole hill.

A harmless debate on an obscure TV channel was picked up five days later and blown up to look as though the Muslim world was under threat. Not that it made any difference to anybody in India, but the sudden reaction from the Middle East was surprising to say the least. There were the usual counter arguments and denials.

The incident shows the sophistication the in the use of the media and the careful cultivation of any narrative which the authorities (here, the Qatari government) wish to promote. The reach of the media is every drawing room in the world so the potential is enormous.  Experts are saying the Al Jazeera channel used this incident to promote its own narrative to create a propaganda war. The government recovered fast and there were rebuttals to the OIC and the others who were prominently trying to foment trouble.

Two days later the hue and cry are dying down. Protests by Muslims in India still continue. This has always happened post a controversial incident. It will not be wrong to say that money changes hands and vested interests try to run their narratives. Iran and other countries have cut down on their rhetoric and deleted their tweets calling for investigations and arrests. This storm in a teacup is slowly dissipating. What it has highlighted is the need for a counter narrative to be promoted vigorously against such campaigns. Experts believe that India should have its own communication setup on a global scale. Something on the lines of the BBC, CNN or the Global Times. 

Propaganda wars have become subtle and sophisticated. This is the Age of the Internet and the information superhighway. One cannot decipher where fact ends and fiction begins. 

The irony of the situation is that all those countries criticizing India are themselves serial violators of human rights. Moreover, nobody in the Muslim world has shown the courage to highlight the plight of Uighur Muslims in China..

Most of the countries which matter have their own mouthpiece or a propaganda arm which can run narrative campaigns as and when required at the bidding of the government. In hindsight India should have established a dedicated publicity channel long back. It is never too late to start. 

Sanctions - A Mixed bag

 Whenever the world goes through a political crisis perpetrated by any country the inevitable consequences of suffering and destruction follow. But there is another consequence which follows, and that is imposition of sanctions. Sanctions are a prerogative of the rich countries which can deny the poor ones something that is essential to them. It could be finance, market access, trade access, currency exchange facilities, the list is long.

There are many instances where nations have faced sanctions for years due to getting into the bad books of a rich country’s government. The US is the principal mover and shaker in this domain. Europe has been somewhat reluctant to impose sanctions on countries. Europe has far less political, military and financial clout than the US and Europeans do not like to upset their own apple cart which could possibly lead to reduced trade with the consequent pains that follow.

Whether sanctions have worked or not is a moot point. It has been a mixed bag so far. A good example would be Iran. After the death of the pro-US Shah of Iran, the Iranian government’s wish to acquire nuclear technology especially after the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini did not help matters. A typical Islamic fundamentalist regime came into being and Iran has been under US sanctions for more thirty years for one reason or the other. Even so the US objective has still not been achieved. Iran has found ways to circumvent the sanctions. Experts say it has developed a vast network of clandestine money laundering agencies which enable it to avoid the legitimate and monitored international banking system.  This network has rendered some of the sanctions ineffective.

India also has been under sanctions for various reasons. After the nuclear tests of 1974 and 1998, sanctions kicked in and there was technology denial by the Americans. Most of Europe followed suit with the exception of France. But apart from delaying acquisition of some crucial military and space technology, it did not deter India from achieving its goal, which was to demonstrate nuclear deterrence against China. In fact sanctions have forced India to become more self-reliant in certain advanced technologies.

Similarly, the on-going Russia -Ukraine conflict has also triggered sanctions against Russia. But European dependence on Russian oil and gas has prevented a consensus from being achieved on banning Russian energy products. Hungary and some other countries have objections to banning Russian oil completely. Moreover, the Russian demand to pay in Rubles is now being met by most of the European countries.  Besides restricting purchase of oil, it will be more difficult for Europe to switch from Russian gas due to technical and economic reasons.

In this interdependent world room to wriggle and lessen the effects of the sanctions can always be found as the current Russia – Ukraine conflict demonstrates. There is some daylight between nations of the EU. Their oil purchase policies are not fully aligned

Also, today, there are too many sanctions on too many countries in the world. Iran, Venezuela and Russia are under sanctions. Their oil supplies have been severely curtailed, which has played havoc with oil prices.

One other fallout of this war which has not attracted much attention is the arms supplies to Ukraine.  European and American arms manufacturers and merchants are making billions by selling arms to their governments which are then given away to Ukraine. So sanctions or no sanctions, somebody has already started making money on this war.

While Russia is definitely feeling the bite of the sanctions, it is also one of the largest producers of food grains (wheat) , and energy (oil and gas) which has given it considerable leverage over Europe. The sanctions are not biting hard enough to make Russia change its policies. Russia is also luring countries with discounted oil.  This conflict as a result could drag on for a long time.

Sanctions are now perceived an outdated instrument of foreign policy to get perceived wayward countries to fall in line. There is also collateral damage to other countries which could be avoided. A revisit is urgently needed.