Pelosi Visit – More China Tantrums

 

The recent visit of Nancy Pelosi, the American House Speaker to Taiwan has created storm in a teacup. This is because China, had thrown the hat in the ring by declaring that they will shoot down the delegation. But since then China is in no mood to cross the threshold which it seems to have set for itself. China is rattling the bars around the Air Defense Zone of Taiwan.

The Chinese Navy has surrounded the island and is making threatening gestures by conduction live fire drills which would suggest they are looking at blockading Taiwanese ports. This is easier said than done. China is as much dependent on semiconductor chips made by Taiwan as the rest of the world. Blockading Taiwanese ports will create a shortage of chips globally and could turn world opinion against China. Meanwhile China has banned imports of some agricultural produce and other inconsequential items from Taiwan.

The Chinese threats over the Pelosi visit was a part of the scaremongering which the CCP leadership engaged in hoping the US would be deterred. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping will try for an unprecedented third term as a Premier later this year. With the Chinese economy underperforming badly, and the Zero-Covid policy not delivering, the political leadership had to show something positive to the people. National fervor seemed to be a way out. Belligerence against Taiwan is probably a smokescreen to divert attention from domestic issues.  

Unfortunately the US also had domestic and international compulsions to not give in to the Chinese demands. Canceling the Pelosi visit would have sent a wrong message to the Quad, AUKUS, the Five Eyes and NATO and its Asian allies.

The most important takeaway in this incident is that China overestimated its influence in Asia and the world. Thus, now the Chinese leadership (meaning, mainly the dictator) is now engaged in military brinkmanship and posturing. This was also evident during the Doklam crisis against India when China’s behavior was described by a retired US general as that of a teenager throwing tantrums.

China will not be able to gobble up Taiwan so easily. Experts have cited some reasons for this. The Taiwan Strait is about one hundred miles across. Any invading army crossing this water will be greatly vulnerable to defensive fire. Secondly, the PLA has not fired a shot in anger since 1979, when they fought against Vietnam and came off worse. They are not trained for battle. Thirdly, the PLA is made up of conscripts recruited for a period of two years and are not wholly committed to the defense forces. Their reliability under pressure in a real war is suspect. Last but not the least the reliability of Chinese equipment is not known. The CCP leadership does not have the confidence to commit its forces in any war.

Being a dictatorship, it is difficult to distinguish between the national ego and that of the leadership. The Chinese people have no say in how their country is run. It is the Chinese leadership and mainly Xi Jinping who has lost face in this incident. There can be a possibility of Xi Jinping going to war if the Chinese economic situation worsens and Xi needs to take some extreme step to divert people's attention from the domestic turmoil. 

On the other hand, however many top officials of the CCP are worried that a war with Taiwan may not go down well with the European Union, as many of them have bank accounts in European countries  including Switzerland.  

How this pans out will have to be seen. China does not have many options to recover its lost face. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese leadership gets out of this one.

The James Webb Space Telescope – Window into the past

 

The recent deployment of the JWST has caused a lot of excitement among the astronomers and space scientists as well as space observers. The JWST marks the beginning of an era of space exploration which promises to change our understanding of the universe.

The JWST is designed to observe the universe in the infrared spectrum. With its advanced instruments, it is expected to help observe objects which are very distant and therefore very faint, that the Hubble was not able to detect. This program is led by NASA, with support from the ESA (European Space Agency) and the CSA (Canadian Space Agency). The cost of the telescope is about $ 10b.

The deployment of the telescope was a controlled ballet. The unfolding of the Sunshield, the Mirror Segments, Checking of the Instrument Mode, Calibration, and so on. On July 12^th the first images were received from the instrument and it stunned the world. What this instrument promises is not comparable to whatever was observed earlier by the Hubble or any other instrument.

Scientists expect to use the JWST to look into the past of the universe. Its formation after the Big Bang. Observe distant galaxies, identify habitable planets, emissions from black holes, Supernovas and other celestial bodies and even look for aliens.

This telescope can see objects that are 13.6 billion lightyears away. If we calculate the time taken by light from these objects to reach the earth, it gives scientists a window into the past of the universe. In its first week itself, the telescope has helped to observe galaxies which are 100 million years older than anything observed earlier, which is a record. This telescope is going to create a new generation of science.

The JWST has observed galaxy clusters in which galaxies are recovering from collision with other galaxies. That means scientists are now able see the formation of the universe as it happened after the Big Bang. This is unprecedented.

By observing the wavelength of light emitted from distant stars and planets scientists are able to learn their chemical composition. This tells them if an orbiting planet has oxygen, carbon or other elements to support life.

There is no doubt that the JWST is going to push the boundaries of space exploration. It will help to unlock the secrets of the universe as never before and throw up surprises very often. 

The James Webb Space Telescope – Window into the past

The changing world order – No predictions

The pandemic has caused unprecedented havoc in the world. The recovery is going to take years to get back on track. In fact, the world is still suffering from attacks by new virus variants. Add to this the crisis brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Joe Biden had said very recently that a new world order is emerging and it will be led by America. But that may not be the case. If the order is changing, then, it will be difficult to predict which countries will emerge as the new leaders. Of course, whatever the order, the USA may be included somewhere in the pecking order, given its size and strength. However that is not guaranteed.

The sanctions on Russia are not working. This is forcing the West to put evermore strict restrictions on that country. Local currency trade has already started between Russia and India and China. There is also talk of trying to find a way to circumvent the SWIFT system for currency transactions. Both these actions will undermine the importance of the dollar.

Nobody is willing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine as it might provoke an escalation.   

Military and economic strengths will remain important for countries for the foreseeable future. However, prevailing circumstances will decide what freedom countries will have to take actions on others. Today countries like India are not towing the western line on the Russia – Ukraine war as regards purchase of oil. Countries like India can have their way because they are a bulwark against China which The US and Europe view as the next major enemy. Russia is viewed as a declining power as of now.

National interest will be paramount in the new order. This was a prerogative of the West. However, many countries have now begun to prioritize their national interest even if it means going against the dictates of the powerful nations.  

Geopolitics will become more complex as national interests of countries clash and overlap at the same time.

Though predicting anything here would be hazardous, a few indications can be read and interpreted. The West has begun to wean itself away from China. China may not remain the factory of the world in the near future. Supply chains are being diversified. Some countries like Germany, Italy were reluctant to delink from China. But the Russia -Ukraine war has changed that. China gas a debt crisis starting with its real estate sector which could cause an economic meltdown. Moreover, its zero covid policy is playing havoc with the economy.

All countries are manipulating and adjusting to the new challenges being thrown up by the events on a daily basis. Russia's Gazprom has shut down the Nord Stream one gas pipeline which supplies gas to Germany- the largest consumer- for maintenance. But  no one knows if Russia will start gas supplies any time soon. Hungary has already declared a gas emergency.

Globalization will continue, because it provides economies of scale, making products cheaper and providing jobs across the world. The geopolitical and economic pointers indicate that some of the developing countries in the world will gain ascendency in the scheme of things. If that happens, we will see a very different world in the not too distant future.

Blog Page-one

21^st Century Propaganda Wars 

Sanctions, a Mixed Bag

The Great Leap Forward or Status Quo?

Indigenous Defence Industry – The coming boom

Russia – Ukraine war, a European problem

The Shifting Balance of Power

Disruptions and the Emerging World Order

The Ukraine crisis and the Ripple Effect

Times they are a changin'

The New Growth Story

Asia in Flux

RCEP -To sign or not to sign

India  - Ticking all the Boxes

Fuel for the future

Needed - A change in the Political System

Continued... 

Previous page

21st Century Propaganda Wars

 

The hue and cry in the Muslim world over the Nupur Sharma incident is an excellent example of how modern propaganda machines make a mountain out of a mole hill.

A harmless debate on an obscure TV channel was picked up five days later and blown up to look as though the Muslim world was under threat. Not that it made any difference to anybody in India, but the sudden reaction from the Middle East was surprising to say the least. There were the usual counter arguments and denials.

The incident shows the sophistication the in the use of the media and the careful cultivation of any narrative which the authorities (here, the Qatari government) wish to promote. The reach of the media is every drawing room in the world so the potential is enormous.  Experts are saying the Al Jazeera channel used this incident to promote its own narrative to create a propaganda war. The government recovered fast and there were rebuttals to the OIC and the others who were prominently trying to foment trouble.

Two days later the hue and cry are dying down. Protests by Muslims in India still continue. This has always happened post a controversial incident. It will not be wrong to say that money changes hands and vested interests try to run their narratives. Iran and other countries have cut down on their rhetoric and deleted their tweets calling for investigations and arrests. This storm in a teacup is slowly dissipating. What it has highlighted is the need for a counter narrative to be promoted vigorously against such campaigns. Experts believe that India should have its own communication setup on a global scale. Something on the lines of the BBC, CNN or the Global Times. 

Propaganda wars have become subtle and sophisticated. This is the Age of the Internet and the information superhighway. One cannot decipher where fact ends and fiction begins. 

The irony of the situation is that all those countries criticizing India are themselves serial violators of human rights. Moreover, nobody in the Muslim world has shown the courage to highlight the plight of Uighur Muslims in China..

Most of the countries which matter have their own mouthpiece or a propaganda arm which can run narrative campaigns as and when required at the bidding of the government. In hindsight India should have established a dedicated publicity channel long back. It is never too late to start. 

Sanctions - A Mixed bag

 Whenever the world goes through a political crisis perpetrated by any country the inevitable consequences of suffering and destruction follow. But there is another consequence which follows, and that is imposition of sanctions. Sanctions are a prerogative of the rich countries which can deny the poor ones something that is essential to them. It could be finance, market access, trade access, currency exchange facilities, the list is long.

There are many instances where nations have faced sanctions for years due to getting into the bad books of a rich country’s government. The US is the principal mover and shaker in this domain. Europe has been somewhat reluctant to impose sanctions on countries. Europe has far less political, military and financial clout than the US and Europeans do not like to upset their own apple cart which could possibly lead to reduced trade with the consequent pains that follow.

Whether sanctions have worked or not is a moot point. It has been a mixed bag so far. A good example would be Iran. After the death of the pro-US Shah of Iran, the Iranian government’s wish to acquire nuclear technology especially after the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini did not help matters. A typical Islamic fundamentalist regime came into being and Iran has been under US sanctions for more thirty years for one reason or the other. Even so the US objective has still not been achieved. Iran has found ways to circumvent the sanctions. Experts say it has developed a vast network of clandestine money laundering agencies which enable it to avoid the legitimate and monitored international banking system.  This network has rendered some of the sanctions ineffective.

India also has been under sanctions for various reasons. After the nuclear tests of 1974 and 1998, sanctions kicked in and there was technology denial by the Americans. Most of Europe followed suit with the exception of France. But apart from delaying acquisition of some crucial military and space technology, it did not deter India from achieving its goal, which was to demonstrate nuclear deterrence against China. In fact sanctions have forced India to become more self-reliant in certain advanced technologies.

Similarly, the on-going Russia -Ukraine conflict has also triggered sanctions against Russia. But European dependence on Russian oil and gas has prevented a consensus from being achieved on banning Russian energy products. Hungary and some other countries have objections to banning Russian oil completely. Moreover, the Russian demand to pay in Rubles is now being met by most of the European countries.  Besides restricting purchase of oil, it will be more difficult for Europe to switch from Russian gas due to technical and economic reasons.

In this interdependent world room to wriggle and lessen the effects of the sanctions can always be found as the current Russia – Ukraine conflict demonstrates. There is some daylight between nations of the EU. Their oil purchase policies are not fully aligned

Also, today, there are too many sanctions on too many countries in the world. Iran, Venezuela and Russia are under sanctions. Their oil supplies have been severely curtailed, which has played havoc with oil prices.

One other fallout of this war which has not attracted much attention is the arms supplies to Ukraine.  European and American arms manufacturers and merchants are making billions by selling arms to their governments which are then given away to Ukraine. So sanctions or no sanctions, somebody has already started making money on this war.

While Russia is definitely feeling the bite of the sanctions, it is also one of the largest producers of food grains (wheat) , and energy (oil and gas) which has given it considerable leverage over Europe. The sanctions are not biting hard enough to make Russia change its policies. Russia is also luring countries with discounted oil.  This conflict as a result could drag on for a long time.

Sanctions are now perceived an outdated instrument of foreign policy to get perceived wayward countries to fall in line. There is also collateral damage to other countries which could be avoided. A revisit is urgently needed.  

The Great Leap Forward or Status Quo?

 

Technology has always been at the forefront of mankind’s endeavors. From ancient cave dwellings to our modern cities, humans have always tried to improve their life by adopting new technology. So, it should be no surprise that a new age of technology is upon us after the pause forced on us by the pandemic.

 Since the beginning of human civilization in this world, the march of technology has never stopped. This unrelenting momentum has taken its toll on human civilization. Pollution is at an all-time high and now threatens the human survival on this planet.  However, progress is not in human hands. It is a process which feeds on itself. Making progress is in the human DNA. The human race cannot remain static in terms of development.

Therefore, the race has intensified of late as nations scramble to win an edge over others. Since the beginning of civilization, it could never be controlled. It is even less controlled now. Humans have never been able to halt their technological progress. Because human nature is oriented towards development. It could be technological cultural, or any other field. We cannot stop ourselves from making progress. Many times, progress in hindsight has been a mixed blessing.

Nevertheless, the human civilisation has sustained itself on progress.

After the pandemic people have realized the importance of technology in their lives. How humans controlled the pandemic with determination and technology. Huge investments are being made to roll out new technology in all spheres of human activity. The pace of discoveries and inventions will be accelerated as more money pours into research and development.

Medicine and health care are now top priorities, but other fields will not lack funding either. Defence has always been a no-compromise issue, where funding is provided for new weapons and systems. The Russia – Ukraine war will bring to the fore, lacunae in weapons and systems as any war does, which nations will have to overcome by making fresh investments in new military technology.

Of course, all this comes at a price. Technological development is always incremental and never a leap forward.  Progress brings in its wake ill effects. The industrial revolution brought about a huge change in the standards of living of the people of the world in general, but has been the root cause of pollution which we are scrambling to mitigate. The burning of fossil fuels for energy has helped man progress but at an enormous cost.

Even the new clean technologies which are just around the corner and which the world is expecting to adopt in a few years, are probably not so clean. Solar, Wind Energy, Hydrogen, are yet to prove themselves. But the scale at which they will have to be produced and distributed to be effective, will need new investments and new methodologies to deal with the waste products.

In fact, one of the first things man is going to do when he sets foot on another planet to colonise it, is to start polluting it. This may sound pessimistic and it probably is the wrong way to look at things. The fact however remains that we are a polluting race. Have been all along, throughout our evolution. The animals in the jungle also pollute the planet. However, their pollution does not deteriorate the overall atmospheric conditions on the planet.  

So has man made any real progress at all? This is a difficult question to answer. If there were no motor cars and industries, there would be no pollution and man need not have gone after clean energy. If medical science had not progressed, man would have died early, and diseases would have kept the human population in check. It seems human progress in actually inconsequential, i.e. progress has not made the human race any better off. It has not improved his his life in any way in real terms. The Red Indian on the plains of America were not unhappy in any way before the white man came and exposed him to progress. The Red man had perfectly adapted his way of life which could have sustained him for a long time. He had found his equilibrium with nature. Something the modern and so called progressive man has not been able to do. 

Man will eventually colonise other planets. The human race will jump from one planet to another discarding them as they become inhospitable due to his polluting ways. This reflects the reality that we as a human race face today.  So even as we talk about mending our ways in order to save our only home, the Earth, from man-made pollution, the reality is that we cannot do much about it, period. Nobody has admitted it, but the sooner we call a spade by its name the better.

As the adage goes, the more things change, the more they remain the same.