The Lancet Report

The world population survey published by the Lancet journal recently has revealed some interesting data. The study was undertaken by the Lancet journal involving lot of experts in various fields. Lancet is respected the world over for its competence and unbiased reporting.

Some of the interesting data that immediately comes to attention is that India’s population will peak by the year 2048 to 1.6 billion and will decline to about 1.09 billion by the year 2100. Even with this decline in total population, India will be the world’s most populous country.  China would have declined from 1.4b in 2017 to about 0.72 billion in 2100. The below table will give the reader an idea of the interesting and unexpected trends in world population growth.  The study covers 195 countries and the data highlighted here is limited by the scope of this article.

Population dynamics up to 2100 

2107	Country	2100
1.3 b	India	1.09 b
1.4 b	China	732 m
157 m	Bangladesh	87 m
206 m	Nigeria	791 m

We can see in the above table that Nigeria will overtake China by 2100. Bangladesh which today is considered overpopulated and backward will decline population wise and stabilize at a much lower level. At that level, experts say, Bangladesh could become the next Singapore. Even before this study came out, it was known that India’s population growth rate was declining. So at some point of time logic would dictate that its overall population would start reducing. The Lancet study puts this trend into perspective and quantifies it to the extent that it can be taken as a guideline for national planning.

What does this study mean for India? That is something our planners have to take into consideration for the future. In 2017 India was the 7^th economy globally in GDP terms. The country will be 3^rd highest in 2100. The Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 in 2019 will decline to 1.29 in 2100. The working age population in India will fall from 762 m in 2017 to 578 m in 2100. With this figure India will have the largest working age population in the world in 2100.

If India’s population is going to peak by 2048, then the demographic dividend has a run of about 28 years only. In this time frame the overall economic reforms have to take a hold. Economic planners have to hit the ground running as there are not even three full decades for the benefits to accrue. India’s economic reforms have been an on and off affair as successive governments backtracked on the reforms and introduced populist schemes which drained public resources.  If this survey is to be taken as a guideline, the government has to align the policies with the given time frame.

Educating the people, imparting the right skills, developing urban infrastructure will have to be undertaken on a war footing. Investing in human capital will be of utmost importance.  Urban infrastructure will entail transportation network, healthcare, sanitation and other facilities. This development will be necessary as there will be mass migrations as new jobs become available at industrial centers. The development will feed on itself with the result that national income will increase exponentially if the dividend is reaped successfully. The New Education Policy (NEP) which was revealed a few days ago, could not have come at a better time. The GST system, the Bankruptcy Code Bill too were steps in the right direction. But new labour laws have to be introduced and privatization of the public sector has to be fast tracked. Thus, a lot needs to be done yet.

Time is of utmost importance. 28 years is not a long time in the life of a nation and plans will have to be expedited on a war footing. India cannot afford to miss this bus as it could then be staring at a demographic disaster.  

The Pendulum is Swinging

It has been more than four months since the start of the corona pandemic and there are no signs that it will go away any time soon. The world economy is expected to shrink 3% – 4% percent by next year.  Loss of production and massive supply chain disruptions have become the norm. This crisis is unprecedented. To top it all, the horizon for economic recovery cannot be seen as yet. The WHO has said the pandemic will continue for the rest of this year and may get worse within that time. But the corona crisis however bad it may seem to be at the outset, comes with a silver lining.

Experts say that once the pandemic so much as shows signs of receding even partially, the global economy is going to pick up steam. The next boom in business is going to be unprecedented.   It is now obvious that business norms will have to change which will entail use of new technology. The way we live, work and play will change fundamentally. The new norms will be business as usual. The pandemic may have accelerated the pace of human evolution.

With China taking an aggressive and dictatorial stance, the nations in the immediate strategic area around her are feeling the heat. Also other countries further afield like the US, UK and those of the European Union are apprehensive as well. India has already borne the brunt of unprovoked Chinese aggression. It has retaliated on the trade frontier by banning some popular Chinese smartphone applications from its market citing data security concerns.

In the last three decades or so, China had developed itself into an export driven economy and become an important part of the global supply chains. That may now change. The world is becoming wary of the way China does business. Amid this situation the Iran - China deal which is now in the offing will turn out to be a big disruptor in the region with global implications. It directly challenges US dominance in the gulf region post the World War II. Two distinct camps now seem to be emerging and a cold war may start all over again. China still can wield a lot of influence on middle income countries, in Africa, South America and the Indo Pacific.  India too seems to be getting its act together with regional connectivity. Projects in Maldives, Bangladesh and Bhutan are being executed speedily and nearing completion.    

Post pandemic, global supply chains could shift away from China because of its handling of the pandemic, aggressive behavior in its neighbourhood and because of what it is doing in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. How exactly this will play out cannot be predicted today, but there are enough indicators that it will not be business as usual with China. Countries like India, Vietnam and others will vie for economic opportunities as they become available. China’s decline will be their gain. The geopolitical implications will be profound and will be felt in all corners of the world.

After the US, the UK has banned Huawei from its 5G rollout. Apart from American pressure on the UK, there are genuine concerns about how Chinese companies handle data. Chinese scientists and students are also facing the heat in US. Two geostrategic focal points are emerging. One in South Pacific and the other in the gulf region. Whatever happens at these points will have consequences elsewhere. 

A subtle but significant shift in how the world views China is that in its public addresses the US has distanced China from the CCP and President Xi Jinping is now being addressed as the Chairman of the CCP. Another indication of this changing view is that Russia has put off the sale of the S-400 missile defence system citing Chinese theft of technology. China also claimed the Russian city of Vladivostok as its own. As a consequence, India has asked Russia to play a more active role in the East and South China Seas.   

The last time a big upheaval of this scale took place, it was due to World War II. This time too, a global catastrophe (read pandemic) threatens to do the same. The situation is going to be fluid for some time to come and political commentators and economists are going to be hard pressed to make any predictions. One thing has become very clear. The geo-economic pendulum may be swinging to a different position in the near future.

Continued... Page Three

 

 The topics continued...

 

Tittle Page...

The ClimateEmergency Report -  a wakeup call – Part II 

The ClimateEmergency Report - a wakeup call – Part I

Human Progress – Real Progress?

Indian Economy –No Passing the Buck

Kashmir Article 370– A Paradigm Shift 

Maharashtra Floods – The Small and Big of it

Chandrayaan 2 & US-Af Talks

Electric Cars - The Real Future?

Flight Safety – The Future

Chinese Politics - The Achilles Heel

Aliens - First Contact

Manufacturing in Space – will be Routine?

Mars could be Different

Robotic Process Automation - A Disruptor

Galactic Neighbours

Mars – Compulsion not Choice

US-Russia Relations – The Great Game

Belt and Road Project – Chinese Checkers

Algorithms –They Rule us 

Title page 

Opportunity in a Crisis

There has been some good news amid the India-China standoff which did not get the attention it should have. ISRO will now involve private industry in India’s space program. While this is not a new development in itself, it is a significant step forward as the government now wants Indian industry to benefit from its space program. This shift in policy will immensely benefit the private industry. The technological ecosystem will get a boost due to this. Of course. making a policy and implementing it are two different things in India. And never the twain shall meet has been the adage which has been followed. The Indian space industry is as old as independent India, but the government has been reluctant to involve the private players. Earlier It was due to the stated policy of socialism which made the government and the bureaucracy suspicious of private industry. Profit making was considered a necessary evil.

Much the same has happened in the defense sector. The defense procurement procedure has been muddling along with frequent change in directions and directives. There has been and still is a reluctance in the bureaucracy to promote indigenous defence production, All the governments till now have said that self sufficiency in defence production is their stated goal but there is no action on the ground. Seventy years after independence India still imports most of its defence equipment.

The current stand off against the Chinese has served to emphasize these lacunae. India has gone for a slew of emergency purchases from the US, Russia and Israel. Artillery shells, anti-missile defense systems, air to air missiles and others. The status quo has not changed at all.

As is the case in our civil industry, there is a serious lack of research in the defense industry as well.  Only now the DRDO, GTRE, HAL the OFB and other government establishments have started applied research for defence equipment. Some encouraging green shoots can be seen. The AESA radar for the Tejas, the Astra air to air missile, the different ballistic missiles, NETRA AWACS, the LCH etc.  Today the need is to have an ecosystem where technology is perfected for specific applications. But technology does not get developed in a vacuum. The forces should  use the equipment that is currently manufactured by our industry. This may not be one hundred percent up to the specifications demanded by them, but once the equipment is used and the feedback from the forces is taken and worked upon, within a few years India will have an ecosystem which will nurture development of advanced technology. Refusing to use indigenous technology and demanding perfection does not go together. In the current spat between India and China there is an opportunity for our forces to use all the equipment available and start the process of perfecting it for their future use. The LCH, LUH, various ICVs and armoured vehicles right down to the assault rifles made by domestic manufacturers should be bought by the forces and used as frontline equipment.  These may not be the most ideal technically and will be a compromise at best, but perfection in defence manufacturing will never be achieved unless the industry, the forces and the government are fully and equally committed to it.