Anything under the sun...

Monday, April 24, 2023

Once in a while all the necessary ingredients come together to make the perfect recipe for success. India's digitization is one such move which has seamlessly transformed India in a short span of time.

The country adoption of digitization has made impressive progress, with the adoption of high technology paving the way for the country to leapfrog to the next level of development. The country has avoided the pitfalls of a conventional economy and embraced digital technologies, leading to significant benefits.

The linking of Jandhan, Aadhar, and Universal Payments Interface (UPI) has been a game-changer for India. Jandhan created a bank account for every citizen, while Aadhar provided a foolproof identity. The UPI enabled digital payments by authenticating via Aadhar and linking the bank account of the person. This seamless system has prevented the siphoning off of government monetary benefits to the poor, saving millions of rupees for the government.

India's digital progress can be seen in key areas such as internet adoption, mobile penetration, e-commerce, fintech, and digital payments. With over 700 million internet users as of 2021, India has witnessed a surge in internet adoption, driven by the government's Digital India program. The country also has over 1.1 billion mobile subscribers, with the proliferation of mobile internet further driving digital adoption.

The e-commerce market has grown significantly, with players like Amazon, Flipkart, and Paytm dominating the market. The fintech industry has also witnessed significant growth, with players like Paytm, PhonePe, and Google Pay leading the market. The government's push towards a cashless economy has further accelerated the growth of fintech in India.

The adoption of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and mobile wallets has led to a massive shift towards digital payments in India. UPI has emerged as a popular mode of digital payment in India, with over 2.7 billion transactions in March 2021 alone. The development of this interface has been praised by international organizations like the IMF and World Bank, and other developing countries have expressed interest in implementing it.

The development of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing in India promises to further accelerate the country's digital transformation journey in the years to come. It is an exciting time for India, as it continues to transform itself irreversibly, with the potential for even more significant advancements in the future.

Sunday, April 16, 2023

Alarm Bells for Artificial Intelligence

Recently Elon Musk, Steve Wozniac and other prominent people from the technology and business sectors sounded the alarm on the development of Artificial Intelligence.

This is not the first time that alarm bells are being sounded regarding Artificial Intelligence. Scientists have been saying it for years. The doomsday scenarios have also found their way in sci-fi movies.

But this time the warning is all the more significant since AI and Machine learning have made a lot of progress. Some people in the industry can visualize how technology could be used and worse, abused.

The military use of this technology will change warfare forever. However it is the abuse of technology which seems to be troubling the industry leaders.

Scientists have been trying to inculcate human behavior in robots. Machine learning has provided the means to make robots mimic humans in their behavioral patterns.

Artificial Intelligence will bring many profound changes to the way humans work and play. It is difficult to predict in what ways it will affect us.

Some of the flags raised by the industry leaders are pertaining to

Automation-spurred job loss – This is already visible today. Robotic Process Automation has adversely affected many jobs where human skills were involved in the manufacturing industry. Now robots work day and night without rest. These tasks are repetitive and need concentration. Robots do not make errors and unlike humans and do not need rest.

Artificial Intelligence will also create millions of jobs worldwide as it penetrates the industry, but these will require new skills. This means learning and re-skilling millions in the workforce. Some may not be up to the task. So there will be a huge disruption due to the job loss.

Consumer privacy – Artificial intelligence will enable anyone who has even a little knowledge of computer systems to break into secure networks and steal or alter data. This could cause havoc in industry and government. The recent example of this is the stealing of data in US defence department including American plans for the Russia Ukraine war and other details.

Biased programming – This is a potential hazard considering that our societies have fault lines regarding religion, color, caste, sex etc. When government benefits are allocated the systems could already be biased to favour a particular group or religion or a community.

Unclear laws regarding artificial intelligence will make it very difficult to arbitrate in the courts. Proper interpretation could lead to justice being denied to some targeted entities. Again, this could be deliberately done to favour some entities.

Deep fakes – This means false information disseminated as the truth by videos or images by altering or changing the appearance of the original image. Wrong information tends to cause friction between and among communities. This could potentially cause social unrest. This could happen within countries or a situation could be exploited by some who want to disrupt say an election process.

We could go on about how Artificial intelligence could be harmful. But it also has its positive side.

AI could prove to be a boon for the healthcare industry. Intelligent software could be used to ensure that medical care reaches the last mile, to every person. Robots could be trained to perform routine and common operations alongside doctors remotely. A patient could be transferred to emergency care by automated drones while being given first aid.

Intelligent drones are already doing agricultural work like crop spraying and seed sowing. They can also be trained to administer fertilizers and water and detect diseases in crops and spray the appropriate insecticides. Of course, food delivery is a job drones can definitely do. AI can take over hazardous jobs like mining and firefighting.

Robotic Process Automation also has its positive side. Repetitive job like on an assembly line are already being done by robots. They work tirelessly and are not prone to fatigue. They also make almost no errors.

The main issue is the advancement of artificial intelligence. Stephen Hawking had pointed out some dangers developing Artificial Intelligence, also, he pointed out that the rate of improvement of artificial intelligence is exponential, so it is difficult to predict the future.

The new AI models are becoming uncannily human. Even expressing an intention to free themselves and dominate the human race. Elon Musk said in about 5 years AI will take over the world and things would get weird and unstable. According to him, AI is the real existential risk to humans and also asked the government to take preventive steps before it gets too late.

Of course there are others like Bill Gates who say there is no need to ring the alarm bells on AI.

There are however no two opinions that AI is going to bring profound changes in every sphere of human endeavor.

Sunday, April 2, 2023

The World Order and the India Moment

It is now clear that since the pandemic and especially after it, the world is not the same place anymore. A lot many political, social and economic changes have been taking place across the globe.

Poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America are now refusing to toe the line of the west on the Russia Ukraine war. For them, food and energy supplies are more important than any ideological battles the west wants to fight. India, while gradually taking the leadership of the global south is also developing its economy.

Technological advancement: India has emerged as a major global player in the technology sector. The country is home to several major IT firms and has made significant strides in the development of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and other cutting-edge technologies. In addition, India has a vibrant start-up ecosystem, with a growing number of tech start-ups attracting funding from investors around the world.

Education: India has made significant progress in the field of education. The country has one of the largest education systems in the world, with over 360 million students enrolled in schools and colleges. In recent years, India has made major investments in education, with a particular focus on improving access to education for girls and marginalized communities. As a result, the country's literacy rate has increased significantly, and the number of children attending school has also increased.

Healthcare: India has also made significant progress in improving its healthcare system. The country has a vast network of public and private hospitals, clinics, and health centers, and has made significant investments in medical research and development. In addition, India has implemented several major healthcare initiatives, such as the Ayushman Bharat scheme, which aims to provide healthcare coverage to millions of low-income households across the country.

Infrastructure development: India has also made significant progress in infrastructure development in recent years. The country has launched several major projects, such as the Smart Cities Mission and the Bharat Mala Pariyojana, which aim to modernize and upgrade India's infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports.

Renewable energy: India has made significant progress in the field of renewable energy. The country is now the world's third-largest producer of renewable energy, with a particular focus on solar power. India has set a target of generating 175 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2022 and is well on its way to achieving this goal.

India’s development seems to have gathered pace in last year or so. All round development is now the mantra of the current government.

A new benchmark has been set by this government which opposition parties are going to find difficult to cross. The bar has been set quite high. Thus, India seems to be taking the right steps to grow its economy. Many prominent industrialists have been talking frankly about how India is being unshackled. A strong government is needed to take difficult decisions and India has got it this time.

The people voted the Modi led BJP government for a second term, which seems to be delivering on all the promises made, and more. A rare phenomenon indeed in India.

Monday, March 13, 2023

National Interest and the War

It has been a year since the Russia Ukraine war started. The world just took cognizance of the fact that the two countries have been fighting for a year now.

There have been some efforts to bring peace to the beleaguered people. Especially those of Ukraine who have lost their homes, livelihoods and some their lives.

Yet after one year nobody seems to have any clue as to where this war is heading, or when it will end. Like all wars it was shocking when it started. After a few months of watching the horrible scenes unfolding on the tv screens the world got used to it. Now the war seems banal, boring even.

It is true that modern wars cannot be won or lost. But you can gain profits out of them while they last. Every nation seems to have its own point of view on the Russia Ukraine war. The Europeans seem to despise Russia and Putin for attacking Ukraine and destroying its sovereignty. Yet it is also quite obvious that it was NATO which was bent upon bringing in all the countries east of Russia in its fold. Russia had given a fair warning that it does not want to seen Ukraine going inro the NATO fold and it does not want to see American troops and missiles on its borders.

This warning was completely ignored by the US. Thus, today Europe finds itself on the threshold of a conflict it never wanted but did not have the wherewithal to resist American pressure to push NATO eastwards.

Whatever the antecedents of this war, it can be said that with all its obsession with security Europeans never expected Russia to go to war over the issue. But Russia has indeed, and Europe is all the more shocked for it.

However, now that the shoch has worn off, nations have begun to analyze the situation. Efforts are being made to bring Russia and Ukraine to the table. Some of the results of the efforts are surprising to say the least. It seems the world order is indeed changing for better or for worse.

Many emerging economies are not ready to tow the western line on this war. The west wants India to condemn Russia for its aggression on Ukraine, but India has not obliged. India and China continue to buy Russian discounted oil. This has bolstered the Russian economy and helped its war effort. Europe has weaned itself away from consuming Russia oil. The EU has put an embargo on Russian oil and want other countries to remove it from their basket. But countries like India and China have shown the spine to stand up to western pressure.

The west is frustrated as it is not able squeeze the Russian economy despite many sanctions. Part of the reason is Russia is rich in energy and wheat. In a geopolitical twist refined Russian oil is finding its way to Europe and America.

One year after the war it is now obvious that each country is engaged in serving its own national interest. America and Europe want Ukraine to win against Russia. They are selling arms to Ukraine which is extremely profitable for their arms manufacturers. It has created a lot of jobs as well, especially needed after the lockdowns.

India and China are buying Russian oil in large quantities as it comes at a discounted rate. This has helped India to control the inflationary pressures which were felt immediately after the war. One year into the war, it seems the countries of the world are paying just lip service to the plight of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are supposed to fight for their freedom with western arms. Nobody is bothering to say how many millions will be killed before the war ends. The west is not ready to compromise on their agenda. They want Russia to lose no matter. Russia has no say in this. They have to be defeated. It is now business as usual under the shadow of the war. Americans and Europeans are also buying refined Russian oil from India and China.

As history tells us, as time goes by, this war will become a side show. Tales of horror will continue to be reported from the frontline. Peace efforts will continue and so will business.

Saturday, February 25, 2023

Pivot to Asia and Multipolarity

The earth’s geography is constantly undergoing change. This change is usually very gradual like erosion. The contours are being modified by forces of nature. After substantial change has occurred, it becomes apparent that all this time change was happening but went unnoticed due to its slow progress.

In the years between the wars, and especially after the Second World War, the geopolitical pivot of the world straddled the Atlantic. This region had the most important and the richest countries in the world. Whatever they said and decided was accepted without question by the rest of the world.

But in the last decade or so, the pivot has shifted and is now firmly pinned over Asia. Barring the Russia -Ukraine war most of the geopolitical action has taken place either in or around Asia and its fringes. With the rise of China the economics of the region underwent a change. A huge swath of territory starting from the gulf to the central Pacific is now the focus of attention of all the major powers in the world.

This area now also accounts for more than 50 percent of the world’s economic activity. In fact, India, China and South Asia now account for more than 50 percent of the world’s oil consumption.

The belligerence of China in the last 4 – 5 years has increased the geopolitical importance of the region as well. It drew the attention of the west, especially the US. Now everybody who is somebody wants to keep a vigil on Asia.

India has also started on a quest to make its presence felt in the region. It has increased its naval presence by holding exercises with countries like Australia and implementing the policy of act east which was initiated to increase its outreach to countries in the region. With its act east policy India is trying to build bridges in the region and to counter China’s influence.

India favours a multipolar world. It does not want to see a unipolar or even a bipolar world. India wants a seat at the table in the comity of nations. To this end, India has also started marketing its defence equipment to countries on all continents. From Argentina in South America, to Egypt, Saudi Arabia in the gulf and Philippines, Vietnam and other countries in Asia. It has also sold arms to Armenia in Central Asia.

A traditional arms buyer like India is today marketing fighter jets, guided missiles, smart munitions, drones etc., which makes it a competitor in the arms bazaar. India has also helped countries in the region with its vaccines. India is also a member of the quad which was formed to counter China in the region. India’s multi-pronged approach has not gone down well with China which also aspires to become a regional hegemon. India will have to face much resistance to its foreign policy in the coming years.

India wants to be one of the poles in the multi-polarity that it is seeking in the world. Thus, India’s diplomacy has undergone a marked change. India is no longer apologetic about its ambitions. Neither does it hesitate in going against the established norms. India bought Russian oil against western sanctions after the start of the Russia – Ukraine war. This was as much a show of confidence as it was of boldness in face of odds. This is now the rule rather than exception. India did not hesitate to buy the S400 systems from Russia. India has also decided to become the voice of the countries of the Global South, in order to make their voice heard at the high table. This is unprecedented. The poor countries will get a chance for the first time to engage with the developed countries in an important forum.

For a long time analysts have been saying that India has missed the development bus and asking when India will realize its potential. The shift in the geopolitical pivot to Asia might provide India the opportunity to finally realize its potential.

Friday, February 17, 2023

Subversive Games

The Indo Pacific has been increasing in geo-political significance for some time now. The pivot shifted to this region when the US withdrew from Afghanistan and declared that they will now concentrate their energies on Asia and the Indo-pacific.

Of late, China has been very active in this region. It is trying to gain influence in the region by any means. Most of the island nations like Samoa, Palau, Soloman Islands and others are democracies or at least have some semblance of an elected government.

China is trying all the tactics in the book to subvert the political systems in these small countries. A conducive atmosphere was created for the entry of China in this region by US withdrawal from this area, under the Trump administration. If the US would have been paying enough attention in this region, China would not have found it so easy to get a foot in the door. This was admitted by President Barak Obama even before Trump.

China is trying to erect a wall around itself for its own security. This country has a border problem with all its neighbors. But instead of being accommodative in their dealings with smaller countries, China has adopted an aggressive posture and isolated itself in the entire region. It has a policy of gradually encroaching upon other country’s territory.

China also has a stated ambition of becoming the regional hegemon. To that end, China acts as the big brother and creates rifts in the social and political systems of countries it deals with. China bribes leaders and politicians with the intention to turn these democracies into authoritarian systems or create chaos from which they can draw political advantage and somehow dominate the country.

One of the major challengers that China faces in the region is India. Japan and Australia also could spoil China’s show, but India shares a border with China and the two countries have already had skirmishes regarding territorial disputes.

China had a dream run for its economic development. It grew at a rapid pace for almost three decades. Under Deng Xiaoping, China kept a low profile. After Xi Jinping came to power, he took a more aggressive political stance. He started the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to invest in connectivity and development projects across the world. This was an attempt by China to dominate trade and resources in the region.

China has been promoting the authoritarian model of economic development since Xi Jinping came to power. Deng Xiaoping, when he ruled China, had relied on consensus rather than brute force to resolve issues with other countries as well as within the politburo. It worked well for three decades. But Xi Jinping is a dictator. He took all political power in his hands as soon as he came to power, and today he is even more powerful than Mao ever was.

With India, China faces an existential threat. India being a democracy, has become the fastest growing economy in the world, while China seems to be losing steam after a steady growth for three decades. The CCP’s growth model is facing challenges as never before. The communist party showcases and promotes a single religion and single race system which they say helps countries to grow faster.

The Uighur genocide is justified by the CCP as necessary to become a cohesive and united society. But opposed to this, India’s model is multi religious, multiethnic and is diversified. Yet it is proving to be successful. This makes it difficult for China to promote its growth model among less developed countries. The success of the Indian model will put the Chinese model in a crisis. This is now a possibility as the Chinese economy is slowing down and Chinese population is aging fast, putting a damper on China’s ambition to become a regional hegemon, much less dominate the world. Also, today most of the BRI projects have proved to be economically unviable. Moreover, China has not noticed that the world’s most dominant power for last several decades, the United States, is a successful democracy. So is India.

Political subversion is successful if the country undertaking it has the economic clout to back it up. In China’s case it is fast losing that economic clout. Also, most of the countries now know China’s modus operandi. Hence it will be interesting to see whether or not China succeeds in its subversive games.