Page Two

India's Digital Leap

Alarm Bells for  Artificial Intelligence

The world order and the India Moment 

National Interest and the War

Pivot to Asia and Multipolarity

Subversive Games

Hindu Renaissance

Challenges to Progress

AI, ML The New Disruptors

Dictatorships are Dysfunctional

Political Evolution

China Turmoil - Writing on the Wall for the CCP?

On A Newfound Solid Footing

Shifting Sands of Geopolitics

China-The Way Ahead

New World Order - Emerging Contours

International Relations at Work

China-The Pushback and the Difficult Times

Keep to the Golden Mean

The Pelosi Visit - More China Tantrums

The James Webb Telescope - Window into the Past

Changing World Order - No Predictions

Continue reading... 

India's Digital Leap

Once in a while all the necessary ingredients come together to make the perfect recipe for success. India's digitization is one such move which has seamlessly transformed India in a short span of time.

The country adoption of digitization has made impressive progress, with the adoption of high technology paving the way for the country to leapfrog to the next level of development. The country has avoided the pitfalls of a conventional economy and embraced digital technologies, leading to significant benefits.

The linking of Jandhan, Aadhar, and Universal Payments Interface (UPI) has been a game-changer for India. Jandhan created a bank account for every citizen, while Aadhar provided a foolproof identity. The UPI enabled digital payments by authenticating via Aadhar and linking the bank account of the person. This seamless system has prevented the siphoning off of government monetary benefits to the poor, saving millions of rupees for the government.

India's digital progress can be seen in key areas such as internet adoption, mobile penetration, e-commerce, fintech, and digital payments. With over 700 million internet users as of 2021, India has witnessed a surge in internet adoption, driven by the government's Digital India program. The country also has over 1.1 billion mobile subscribers, with the proliferation of mobile internet further driving digital adoption.

The e-commerce market has grown significantly, with players like Amazon, Flipkart, and Paytm dominating the market. The fintech industry has also witnessed significant growth, with players like Paytm, PhonePe, and Google Pay leading the market. The government's push towards a cashless economy has further accelerated the growth of fintech in India.

The adoption of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and mobile wallets has led to a massive shift towards digital payments in India. UPI has emerged as a popular mode of digital payment in India, with over 2.7 billion transactions in March 2021 alone. The development of this interface has been praised by international organizations like the IMF and World Bank, and other developing countries have expressed interest in implementing it.

The development of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing in India promises to further accelerate the country's digital transformation journey in the years to come. It is an exciting time for India, as it continues to transform itself irreversibly, with the potential for even more significant advancements in the future.

Alarm Bells for Artificial Intelligence

 

Recently Elon Musk, Steve Wozniac and other prominent people from the technology and business sectors sounded the alarm on the development of Artificial Intelligence.

This is not the first time that alarm bells are being sounded regarding Artificial Intelligence. Scientists have been saying it for years. The doomsday scenarios have also found their way in sci-fi movies.

But this time the warning is all the more significant since AI and Machine learning have made a lot of progress. Some people in the industry can visualize how technology could be used and worse, abused.

The military use of this technology will change warfare forever. However it is the abuse of technology which seems to be troubling the industry leaders.

Scientists have been trying to inculcate human behavior in robots. Machine learning has provided the means to make robots mimic humans in their behavioral patterns.

Artificial Intelligence will bring many profound changes to the way humans work and play. It is difficult to predict in what ways it will affect us.

Some of the flags raised by the industry leaders are pertaining to  

 Automation-spurred job loss – This is already visible today. Robotic Process Automation has adversely affected many jobs where human skills were involved in the manufacturing industry. Now robots work day and night without rest. These tasks are repetitive and need concentration. Robots do not make errors and unlike humans and do not need rest.

Artificial Intelligence will also create millions of jobs worldwide as it penetrates the industry, but these will require new skills. This means learning and re-skilling millions in the workforce. Some may not be up to the task. So there will be a huge disruption due to the job loss.

Consumer privacy – Artificial intelligence will enable anyone who has even a little knowledge of computer systems to break into secure networks and steal or alter data. This could cause havoc in industry and government. The recent example of this is the stealing of data in US defence department including American plans for the Russia Ukraine war and other details.

Biased programming – This is a potential hazard considering that our societies have fault lines regarding religion, color, caste, sex etc. When government benefits are allocated the systems could already be biased to favour a particular group or religion or a community.

 Unclear laws regarding artificial intelligence will make it very difficult to arbitrate in the courts. Proper interpretation could lead to justice being denied to some targeted entities. Again, this could be deliberately done to favour some entities.   

Deep fakes – This means false information disseminated as the truth by videos or images by altering or changing the appearance of the original image. Wrong information tends to cause friction between and among communities. This could potentially cause social unrest. This could happen within countries or a situation could be exploited by some who want to disrupt say an election process.

We could go on about how Artificial intelligence could be harmful. But it also has its positive side.

AI could prove to be a boon for the healthcare industry. Intelligent software could be used to ensure that medical care reaches the last mile, to every person. Robots could be trained to perform routine and common operations alongside doctors remotely. A patient could be transferred to emergency care by automated drones while being given first aid.

Intelligent drones are already doing agricultural work like crop spraying and seed sowing. They can also be trained to administer fertilizers and water and detect diseases in crops and spray the appropriate insecticides. Of course, food delivery is a job drones can definitely do.  AI can take over hazardous jobs like mining and firefighting.

Robotic Process Automation also has its positive side. Repetitive job like on an assembly line are already being done by robots. They work tirelessly and are not prone to fatigue. They also make almost no errors.

The main issue is the advancement of artificial intelligence. Stephen Hawking had pointed out some dangers developing Artificial Intelligence, also, he pointed out that the rate of improvement of artificial intelligence is exponential, so it is difficult to predict the future.

The new AI models are becoming uncannily human. Even expressing an intention to free themselves and dominate the human race. Elon Musk said in about 5 years AI will take over the world and things would get weird and unstable. According to him, AI is the real existential risk to humans and also asked the government to take preventive steps before it gets too late.

Of course there are others like Bill Gates who say there is no need to ring the alarm bells on AI.

There are however no two opinions that AI is going to bring profound changes in every sphere of human endeavor.

The World Order and the India Moment

It is now clear that since the pandemic and especially after it, the world is not the same place anymore. A lot many political, social and economic changes have been taking place across the globe. 

Poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America are now refusing to toe the line of the west on the Russia Ukraine war. For them, food and energy supplies are more important than any ideological battles the west wants to fight.  India, while gradually taking the leadership of the global south is also developing its economy.

Technological advancement: India has emerged as a major global player in the technology sector. The country is home to several major IT firms and has made significant strides in the development of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and other cutting-edge technologies. In addition, India has a vibrant start-up ecosystem, with a growing number of tech start-ups attracting funding from investors around the world.

Education: India has made significant progress in the field of education. The country has one of the largest education systems in the world, with over 360 million students enrolled in schools and colleges. In recent years, India has made major investments in education, with a particular focus on improving access to education for girls and marginalized communities. As a result, the country's literacy rate has increased significantly, and the number of children attending school has also increased.

Healthcare: India has also made significant progress in improving its healthcare system. The country has a vast network of public and private hospitals, clinics, and health centers, and has made significant investments in medical research and development. In addition, India has implemented several major healthcare initiatives, such as the Ayushman Bharat scheme, which aims to provide healthcare coverage to millions of low-income households across the country.

Infrastructure development: India has also made significant progress in infrastructure development in recent years. The country has launched several major projects, such as the Smart Cities Mission and the Bharat Mala Pariyojana, which aim to modernize and upgrade India's infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports.

Renewable energy: India has made significant progress in the field of renewable energy. The country is now the world's third-largest producer of renewable energy, with a particular focus on solar power. India has set a target of generating 175 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2022 and is well on its way to achieving this goal.

India’s development seems to have gathered pace in last year or so. All round development is now the mantra of the current government. 

A new benchmark has been set by this government which opposition parties are going to find difficult to cross. The bar has been set quite high. Thus, India seems to be taking the right steps to grow its economy. Many prominent industrialists have been talking frankly about how India is being unshackled. A strong government is needed to take difficult decisions and India has got it this time.

The people voted the Modi led BJP government for a second term, which seems to be delivering on all the promises made, and more. A rare phenomenon indeed in India.