Navigating the Russia-China Nexus and Balancing Ties with Russia

 

India's strategic engagement in the geostrategic sphere has become increasingly complex with the emergence of the Russia-China nexus. As India tackles the challenges posed by this alignment, it must also navigate its compelling reasons to maintain close ties with Russia. Balancing these priorities is crucial to safeguarding India's national interests in an evolving global order.

Understanding the Russia-China Nexus:

The Russia-China nexus signifies the deepening partnership and collaboration between Russia and China on various fronts. This alliance has geopolitical implications, challenging the existing balance of power. Russia and China have cooperated extensively in areas such as trade, defense, and diplomacy, driven by shared interests in multi-polarity and countering the dominance of the United States. This strategic alignment poses both challenges and opportunities for India's foreign policy objectives.

India's Compulsions: Historical Ties with Russia:

India's close relationship with Russia is rooted in historical and geopolitical factors. The longstanding ties between the two countries date back to the Cold War era, characterized by cooperation in defense, space, energy, and technology. India and Russia have established a strong defense partnership, with Russia being India's largest arms supplier.

India's compelling reasons to maintain close ties with Russia include the mutual trust, reliability, and strategic autonomy that the relationship offers. Russia has been a consistent supporter of India's national security concerns, including its stance on territorial disputes. Moreover, Russia has been a valuable partner in areas such as nuclear energy, space exploration, and counterterrorism cooperation. India's close engagement with Russia also provides a counterbalance to the growing influence of China in the region.

The opening up of the Arctic presents many opportunities for Indian businesses. The Arctic region of Russia has many natural resources in large quantities. If India does not compete for them some other countries definitely will, namely China. China will completely dominate Russia, politically and financially and will take over all of the Russian natural resources. India does not want Russia dominated by China as that will make China very powerful and give it overwhelming Geo strategic advantage.

Tackling the Russia-China Nexus:

India has adopted a multi-dimensional approach to address the challenges posed by the Russia-China nexus while safeguarding its national interests. India recognizes the need to engage both Russia and China diplomatically and maintain a balanced approach.

To counterbalance the nexus, India has focused on strengthening strategic partnerships with other democratic powers. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, comprising India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, seeks to promote a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. This forum enhances cooperation on security, connectivity, and economic development while upholding the principles of a rules-based international order.

Furthermore, India has actively diversified its economic engagements beyond the Russia-China nexus. Initiatives such as the "Act East Policy" and "Connect Central Asia" aim to deepen trade, investment, and connectivity with Southeast Asian and Central Asian nations, respectively. These efforts help India expand its economic influence and reduce dependence on the nexus.

Conclusion:

India's approach to the Russia-China nexus involves maintaining a delicate balance between safeguarding its national interests and nurturing close ties with Russia. By pursuing strategic partnerships with other democratic powers and diversifying economic engagements, India aims to navigate the complexities of the evolving geostrategic landscape while preserving its historical relationship with Russia.

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Emerging Contours of a new World Order

 

The concept of a "new world order" is often used to describe a hypothetical future global system that reflects significant changes in political, economic, and social dynamics. While it is challenging to predict the exact contours of such a world order, several emerging trends can provide insights into the potential directions the world may be heading. Please note that these observations are based on current trends and should be considered speculative.

Shifting Power Dynamics: The global power balance is undergoing a significant transformation. The United States, traditionally considered the world's sole superpower, is facing increased competition from emerging powers such as China, India, and regional players like Brazil and Turkey. This multipolar distribution of power is likely to shape the new world order, with multiple centers of influence and more complex geopolitical dynamics.

Since the end of the pandemic the world has been in a flux. Geopolitics has taken center stage. New alliances are being worked out among nations. Old friendships are being replaced by new alliances hitherto unprecedented.

Nations are finding themselves in difficult situations and are looking for support from old friends, which many a times does not exist anymore.

The changes are challenging to say the least. The pre-pandemic world was different and a lot more predictable. That order was established after the Second World War. It was dominated by America and Europe, an alliance which emerged after the WWII. These powers who were the movers and shakers, and who called the shots. They largely decided the how the world worked and who got the benefits and who got the brickbats.

Now big developing countries like India and China are asserting themselves which hitherto they were reluctant to do. India bought the S400 missiles from Russia. Later India bought Russian oil, and now India could sign a deal with Iran to buy Iranian oil. All this under the threat of sanctions. One of the reasons this is happening is that power equations are changing.

Rise of China: China's rapid economic growth and assertive foreign policy have positioned it as a major global player. It is expected that China will continue to expand its influence, potentially challenging the United States' hegemony. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its increasing involvement in international organizations and alliances indicate its ambitions to shape the global order according to its interests.

Joe Biden had said a while ago that the World order is changing and America is going to lead it. This may or may not come true. America may remain an important power in the world, but other big players could emerge once the dust settles.

India and China have started to defy American power.  China brokered a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This could be a sign that US influence in the gulf is declining. Saudi Arabia is also buying Russian Oil. Saudi Arabia was a staunch ally of the US in the gulf. But since the coming of Biden, there has been some fallout among the two countries.

New connectivity projects are also on the cards which will change geo-economics in a few years. India is seeking to build the North – South Corridor starting from the Chabahar port in Iran, through Afghanistan and Central Asia, to Russia and Europe. This will reduce the importance of the Suez Canal in the next few years. This is why Egypt has offered India an industrial area near the canal for setting up manufacturing industries. 

Many disruptions are expected by changing power equations in international relations. The current big powers will find it difficult to stem the tide of other emerging nations as new regional and global players. This trend can be seen in the currently ongoing SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) Foreign Ministers meet in India. India has steadfastly refused to criticize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Rapid advancements in technology, including artificial intelligence, automation, and biotechnology, are reshaping various sectors of society. They have the potential to disrupt existing systems and industries, create new economic opportunities, and transform the global balance of power. Countries that lead in technological innovation are likely to have a significant advantage in shaping the new world order.

The increasing urgency of addressing climate change and promoting sustainability is likely to influence the new world order. Cooperation and collective action on climate-related challenges may become essential for global stability. Countries that prioritize renewable energy, environmental conservation, and sustainable development are likely to have a positive influence in shaping the new order.

It's important to note that predicting the future is inherently uncertain, and unforeseen events or developments could significantly alter the trajectory of global affairs. The emerging contours of a new world order will be shaped by complex interactions among various actors, trends, and events in the coming years. Add to this the emerging trend of nationalism in countries and strong governments which can disrupt power equations to influence domestic politics.

It will be interesting to see after the dust settles on this change. 

Page Two

India's Digital Leap

Alarm Bells for  Artificial Intelligence

The world order and the India Moment 

National Interest and the War

Pivot to Asia and Multipolarity

Subversive Games

Hindu Renaissance

Challenges to Progress

AI, ML The New Disruptors

Dictatorships are Dysfunctional

Political Evolution

China Turmoil - Writing on the Wall for the CCP?

On A Newfound Solid Footing

Shifting Sands of Geopolitics

China-The Way Ahead

New World Order - Emerging Contours

International Relations at Work

China-The Pushback and the Difficult Times

Keep to the Golden Mean

The Pelosi Visit - More China Tantrums

The James Webb Telescope - Window into the Past

Changing World Order - No Predictions

Continue reading... 

India's Digital Leap

Once in a while all the necessary ingredients come together to make the perfect recipe for success. India's digitization is one such move which has seamlessly transformed India in a short span of time.

The country adoption of digitization has made impressive progress, with the adoption of high technology paving the way for the country to leapfrog to the next level of development. The country has avoided the pitfalls of a conventional economy and embraced digital technologies, leading to significant benefits.

The linking of Jandhan, Aadhar, and Universal Payments Interface (UPI) has been a game-changer for India. Jandhan created a bank account for every citizen, while Aadhar provided a foolproof identity. The UPI enabled digital payments by authenticating via Aadhar and linking the bank account of the person. This seamless system has prevented the siphoning off of government monetary benefits to the poor, saving millions of rupees for the government.

India's digital progress can be seen in key areas such as internet adoption, mobile penetration, e-commerce, fintech, and digital payments. With over 700 million internet users as of 2021, India has witnessed a surge in internet adoption, driven by the government's Digital India program. The country also has over 1.1 billion mobile subscribers, with the proliferation of mobile internet further driving digital adoption.

The e-commerce market has grown significantly, with players like Amazon, Flipkart, and Paytm dominating the market. The fintech industry has also witnessed significant growth, with players like Paytm, PhonePe, and Google Pay leading the market. The government's push towards a cashless economy has further accelerated the growth of fintech in India.

The adoption of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and mobile wallets has led to a massive shift towards digital payments in India. UPI has emerged as a popular mode of digital payment in India, with over 2.7 billion transactions in March 2021 alone. The development of this interface has been praised by international organizations like the IMF and World Bank, and other developing countries have expressed interest in implementing it.

The development of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing in India promises to further accelerate the country's digital transformation journey in the years to come. It is an exciting time for India, as it continues to transform itself irreversibly, with the potential for even more significant advancements in the future.

Alarm Bells for Artificial Intelligence

 

Recently Elon Musk, Steve Wozniac and other prominent people from the technology and business sectors sounded the alarm on the development of Artificial Intelligence.

This is not the first time that alarm bells are being sounded regarding Artificial Intelligence. Scientists have been saying it for years. The doomsday scenarios have also found their way in sci-fi movies.

But this time the warning is all the more significant since AI and Machine learning have made a lot of progress. Some people in the industry can visualize how technology could be used and worse, abused.

The military use of this technology will change warfare forever. However it is the abuse of technology which seems to be troubling the industry leaders.

Scientists have been trying to inculcate human behavior in robots. Machine learning has provided the means to make robots mimic humans in their behavioral patterns.

Artificial Intelligence will bring many profound changes to the way humans work and play. It is difficult to predict in what ways it will affect us.

Some of the flags raised by the industry leaders are pertaining to  

 Automation-spurred job loss – This is already visible today. Robotic Process Automation has adversely affected many jobs where human skills were involved in the manufacturing industry. Now robots work day and night without rest. These tasks are repetitive and need concentration. Robots do not make errors and unlike humans and do not need rest.

Artificial Intelligence will also create millions of jobs worldwide as it penetrates the industry, but these will require new skills. This means learning and re-skilling millions in the workforce. Some may not be up to the task. So there will be a huge disruption due to the job loss.

Consumer privacy – Artificial intelligence will enable anyone who has even a little knowledge of computer systems to break into secure networks and steal or alter data. This could cause havoc in industry and government. The recent example of this is the stealing of data in US defence department including American plans for the Russia Ukraine war and other details.

Biased programming – This is a potential hazard considering that our societies have fault lines regarding religion, color, caste, sex etc. When government benefits are allocated the systems could already be biased to favour a particular group or religion or a community.

 Unclear laws regarding artificial intelligence will make it very difficult to arbitrate in the courts. Proper interpretation could lead to justice being denied to some targeted entities. Again, this could be deliberately done to favour some entities.   

Deep fakes – This means false information disseminated as the truth by videos or images by altering or changing the appearance of the original image. Wrong information tends to cause friction between and among communities. This could potentially cause social unrest. This could happen within countries or a situation could be exploited by some who want to disrupt say an election process.

We could go on about how Artificial intelligence could be harmful. But it also has its positive side.

AI could prove to be a boon for the healthcare industry. Intelligent software could be used to ensure that medical care reaches the last mile, to every person. Robots could be trained to perform routine and common operations alongside doctors remotely. A patient could be transferred to emergency care by automated drones while being given first aid.

Intelligent drones are already doing agricultural work like crop spraying and seed sowing. They can also be trained to administer fertilizers and water and detect diseases in crops and spray the appropriate insecticides. Of course, food delivery is a job drones can definitely do.  AI can take over hazardous jobs like mining and firefighting.

Robotic Process Automation also has its positive side. Repetitive job like on an assembly line are already being done by robots. They work tirelessly and are not prone to fatigue. They also make almost no errors.

The main issue is the advancement of artificial intelligence. Stephen Hawking had pointed out some dangers developing Artificial Intelligence, also, he pointed out that the rate of improvement of artificial intelligence is exponential, so it is difficult to predict the future.

The new AI models are becoming uncannily human. Even expressing an intention to free themselves and dominate the human race. Elon Musk said in about 5 years AI will take over the world and things would get weird and unstable. According to him, AI is the real existential risk to humans and also asked the government to take preventive steps before it gets too late.

Of course there are others like Bill Gates who say there is no need to ring the alarm bells on AI.

There are however no two opinions that AI is going to bring profound changes in every sphere of human endeavor.

The World Order and the India Moment

It is now clear that since the pandemic and especially after it, the world is not the same place anymore. A lot many political, social and economic changes have been taking place across the globe. 

Poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America are now refusing to toe the line of the west on the Russia Ukraine war. For them, food and energy supplies are more important than any ideological battles the west wants to fight.  India, while gradually taking the leadership of the global south is also developing its economy.

Technological advancement: India has emerged as a major global player in the technology sector. The country is home to several major IT firms and has made significant strides in the development of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and other cutting-edge technologies. In addition, India has a vibrant start-up ecosystem, with a growing number of tech start-ups attracting funding from investors around the world.

Education: India has made significant progress in the field of education. The country has one of the largest education systems in the world, with over 360 million students enrolled in schools and colleges. In recent years, India has made major investments in education, with a particular focus on improving access to education for girls and marginalized communities. As a result, the country's literacy rate has increased significantly, and the number of children attending school has also increased.

Healthcare: India has also made significant progress in improving its healthcare system. The country has a vast network of public and private hospitals, clinics, and health centers, and has made significant investments in medical research and development. In addition, India has implemented several major healthcare initiatives, such as the Ayushman Bharat scheme, which aims to provide healthcare coverage to millions of low-income households across the country.

Infrastructure development: India has also made significant progress in infrastructure development in recent years. The country has launched several major projects, such as the Smart Cities Mission and the Bharat Mala Pariyojana, which aim to modernize and upgrade India's infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports.

Renewable energy: India has made significant progress in the field of renewable energy. The country is now the world's third-largest producer of renewable energy, with a particular focus on solar power. India has set a target of generating 175 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2022 and is well on its way to achieving this goal.

India’s development seems to have gathered pace in last year or so. All round development is now the mantra of the current government. 

A new benchmark has been set by this government which opposition parties are going to find difficult to cross. The bar has been set quite high. Thus, India seems to be taking the right steps to grow its economy. Many prominent industrialists have been talking frankly about how India is being unshackled. A strong government is needed to take difficult decisions and India has got it this time.

The people voted the Modi led BJP government for a second term, which seems to be delivering on all the promises made, and more. A rare phenomenon indeed in India. 

National Interest and the War

 

It has been a year since the Russia Ukraine war started. The world just took cognizance of the fact that the two countries have been fighting for a year now.

There have been some efforts to bring peace to the beleaguered people. Especially those of Ukraine who have lost their homes, livelihoods and some their lives.

Yet after one year nobody seems to have any clue as to where this war is heading, or when it will end. Like all wars it was shocking when it started. After a few months of watching the horrible scenes unfolding on the tv screens the world got used to it. Now the war seems banal, boring even.

It is true that modern wars cannot be won or lost. But you can gain profits out of them while they last. Every nation seems to have its own point of view on the Russia Ukraine war. The Europeans seem to despise Russia and Putin for attacking Ukraine and destroying its sovereignty. Yet it is also quite obvious that it was NATO which was bent upon bringing in all the countries east of Russia in its fold. Russia had given a fair warning that it does not want to seen Ukraine going inro the NATO fold and it does not want to see American troops and missiles on its borders.

This warning was completely ignored by the US. Thus, today Europe finds itself on the threshold of a conflict it never wanted but did not have the wherewithal to resist American pressure to push NATO eastwards.   

Whatever the antecedents of this war, it can be said that with all its obsession with security Europeans never expected Russia to go to war over the issue. But Russia has indeed, and Europe is all the more shocked for it.

However, now that the shoch has worn off, nations have begun to analyze the situation. Efforts are being made to bring Russia and Ukraine to the table. Some of the results of the efforts are surprising to say the least. It seems the world order is indeed changing for better or for worse.

Many emerging economies are not ready to tow the western line on this war. The west wants India to condemn Russia for its aggression on Ukraine, but India has not obliged. India and China continue to buy Russian discounted oil.  This has bolstered the Russian economy and helped its war effort. Europe has weaned itself away from consuming Russia oil. The EU has put an embargo on Russian oil and want other countries to remove it from their basket. But countries like India and China have shown the spine to stand up to western pressure.

The west is frustrated as it is not able squeeze the Russian economy despite many sanctions. Part of the reason is Russia is rich in energy and wheat. In a geopolitical twist refined Russian oil is finding its way to Europe and America.

One year after the war it is now obvious that each country is engaged in serving its own national interest. America and Europe want Ukraine to win against Russia. They are selling arms to Ukraine which is extremely profitable for their arms manufacturers. It has created a lot of jobs as well, especially needed after the lockdowns.

India and China are buying Russian oil in large quantities as it comes at a discounted rate. This has helped India to control the inflationary pressures which were felt immediately after the war. One year into the war, it seems the countries of the world are paying just lip service to the plight of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are supposed to fight for their freedom with western arms. Nobody is bothering to say how many millions will be killed before the war ends. The west is not ready to compromise on their agenda. They want Russia to lose no matter. Russia has no say in this. They have to be defeated.  It is now business as usual under the shadow of the war.  Americans and Europeans are also buying refined Russian oil from India and China.

As history tells us, as time goes by, this war will become a side show.  Tales of horror will continue to be reported from the frontline. Peace efforts will continue and so will business.